Latest News From Latin America - Brazil's Lula Cooperates With Venezuela's Chavez

April 30: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has been busy lately. As his administration battles internally to have ends meet, he has seen his international agenda rekindled. The revolution being in full swing, Chavez did not miss opportunities to present his Bolivarian plan for Latin America as he met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” aa Silva.

During his meeting with “Lula,” held Friday in Recife, in northeast Brazil, both presidents talked about possibilities of mutual cooperation. Brazil could become a major source of imports for Venezuela as Brazilian companies open credit lines to Chavez's administration. Brazil would in turn help foster agriculture in Venezuela through credits, one of the pillars of the land "reform" planned by the Venezuelan president, said Chavez during his weekly show, “Hello President.”

Ventures between Petrobras and PDVSA, the Brazilian and Venezuelan state-owned oil companies, were discussed too. Venezuela relied on Brazilian gasoline imports during the two-month strike that paralyzed the country and its oil industry.

Free trade was a big subject in the agenda, especially with Brazil co-chairing the Free Trade Area of Americas (FTAA) negotiations and heading Mercosur, a trade block composed of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia and Chile. Brazil, which represents Mercosur at the FTAA table, has been a harsh negotiator and critic of the U.S. subsidies’ policies. If all goes well, the FTAA talks are scheduled to end by 2005.

Chavez, an open critic of free trade, said that if the FTAA talks were to fail because of the U.S.’s inflexibility, Venezuela would “humbly” start working on an alternative integration mechanism, which he would call the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas.

Chavez also met with Colombian President Uribe on Wednesday in the southern city of Puerto Ordaz, Venezuela, to discuss issues related to the border between Colombia and Venezuela, where guerrilla activity is thriving.

Uribe's administration promised not to voice remarks that could compromise the Venezuelan government as had happened in the past when it accused the Chavez administration of welcoming the guerrillas. Uribe also flew to Venezuela to discuss the relaxation of the foreign exchange control imposed by Chavez, which has halted payment of Colombian imports.

The meeting sets a precedent to mend diplomatic relations between the two countries, which started to go downhill after Colombia gave political asylum to Carmona Estanga, who presided over the group that attempted to overthrow Chavez in April 2002.

Chavez termed the meetings historical and assured that these “had helped unite interests among the neighboring countries.”

Bush Meets Colombia's Uribe April 29: Colombian President Alvaro Uribe is meeting with President Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Commerce Secretary Donald Evans during the next four days to discuss issues related to U.S. cooperation with the war against terrorism in Colombia. Free trade will also be on the agenda.

Uribe is expected to lobby in Congress too, hoping to shift Democrats’ attention to the need to help Colombia in its war against the guerrillas, a priority of the Bush administration’s Latin American agenda.

Out of 200 Democrats who voted at the beginning of April on an addition to the budget to cover Iraq costs and related causes, only 10 voted in favor. Democrats accused the Bush administration of slipping $100 million in aid to Colombia in spite of already having asked for $700 million in the 2004 budget and having gotten $500 million for 2003.

Attorney General John Ashcroft said Monday that U.S.-Colombia relations were as strong as ever and that the United States was accomplishing one of the most ambitious agendas on security and justice.

Ashcroft voiced his admiration for leaders who do not hesitate to apply decisive measures to combat terrorism as he commented on his belief in capture and trial as the only way to deal with the guerrillas. Ashcroft did leave a breathing space when he said, “You should never say never.”

President Uribe has so far denied possibilities of negotiation with the guerrilla on liberating 70 hostages, among them civil servants, military officials and three U.S. citizens, who were on a mission in the southern jungle of Colombia against the release of 500 jailed rebels.

Uribe rejects conditions of humanitarian exchange set by Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), some of which require the government to send high officials to a designated spot where hostages and prisoners would simultaneously be exchanged.

Internally, liberal opposition groups are lobbying for a softening of the central administration on the non-negotiation stance reminding the public that some of the hostages have been held captive for almost six years.

Venezuela Promises Not to Cheat on Oil April 23: Venezuela said it would accept lowering its quota by 11 percent if the next OPEC meeting in Vienna results in a tightening of OPEC's oil supply. The country, which had to lower its production because of the two-month strike that paralyzed most business sectors and wrecked the state-oil company, is producing about 2.8 million barrels a day, down 300,000.

Luis Vierma, vice minister of natural resources, said that the 11 percent reduction in output would correspond to Venezuela’s share as OPEC reacts to an oversupply in the markets of 2 million barrels a day. Ali Rodriguez, president of the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, had said last week that the country would keep output levels stable until the end of the year. Senior officials had remarked that Venezuela would be inclined to increase its market share to make up for the lost revenues and protested against war in Iraq. Chavez added that the war had been a scheme to destabilize the oil cartel.

The change in heart in Venezuela’s stance could have been prompted by an accord among cartel members that apparently let Venezuela produce above its quota in return for the lost revenues during the strike, during which it was not producing more than 150,000 barrels a day.

Following the band framework under which OPEC operates, the cartel might lower output Thursday in Vienna to avoid oil prices from falling below the desired band of $22 to $28 a barrel. The band system allows OPEC to reduce or increase supplied quantities in the case of outlying prices.

Venezuela’s apparent fidelity to its cartel partners, but most of all PDVSA’s inability to rapidly increase production levels, may avoid oil prices to fall more than thought now that the war in Iraq is over.

April 18: The government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and supporters are celebrating the re-instatement of his regime and its Bolivarian Revolution one year after the failed coup d’etat.

The opposition-backed move of last April 11 left many open questions regarding the role and reliability of the military, the “spine” of the Chavez revolution. It also left a death toll of 19, whom only the opposition has cared to mourn.

Chavez’s audience during the three-day celebrations this past weekend gathered detractors of the neo-liberal globalization and “Yankee imperialism” movements in celebration of his stronghold on power. The mood at the summit meeting turned around rejecting the U.S.-led economic dominance of Western countries and promoting a "pacific" alternative to the "establishment."

Chavez could not avoid the talk about "the establishment of Venezuela" as a cause of the political, social and economic crises that plague the country.

The audience was glad to listen to the rhetoric. The Teresa Carreno theater, an architectonic jewel, was filled with people who listened in awe to speeches held by ex-guerrilla commanders, Cuban Vice President Carlos Lage, Indigenas movements, Evo Morales (leader of the coca-growers opposition in Bolivia), Daniel Ortega, ex-president of Nicaragua, among many other leftist supporters.

The president’s incendiary speech included the assurance that “if the revolution cannot be carried on in a peaceful way, a different road has to be taken” (www.eluniversal.com, April 14).

As opposed to the empty threats of the beginning of his period, ever since dissident Gen. Rosendo disclosed the brutal plans of the president during the eve of the coup d’etat on April 11, 2002, Chavez's discourse has been reflecting his actions too. Expecting the pacific protest to reach the Presidential Palace, Chavez had planned to surround Miraflores with soldiers and unleash the “Plan Avila,” a security plan that would fill the streets with tanks and allow the military to fire against anyone who disrupted the public order. The general refused to follow orders and deserted the military ranks, leaving military command to the minister of the interior and justice, Gen. Lucas Rincon.

Rincon, whom many label as submissive, had announced the resignation of Chavez last April 12, who was apparently negotiating his leave with the opposition. Many thought he would long have been off to Cuba, when he made his reappearance on the 13th rejecting talks about any negotiations.

One year after the incident that put to test the cohesion of the government, the Bolivarian Revolution is going through a phase of military reconstruction. Chavez is now concentrated on securing support from the National Armed Forces and is looking into buying the needed support. The National Armed Forces, an institution that used to be well-respected in most aspects, has suffered a substantial break in its structure since the Bolivarian Revolution started to use it in more ways than ever imaginable.

Sixty-four high-level military officials hold at least one important post within the Chavez administration. Most of these fill the ranks of the Ministry of the Interior and Justice. Municipal and regional governmental posts are also filled by member of the armed forces, and even the legislative power, where the vice president of the body is a retired captain.

As a general rule, the longer the president stays in power, the more support he will have from the military, the easier it will become to fulfill his prophesy of ruling until 2021.

April 15: The government of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has not sold a single dollar to importers since it fixed the exchange rate to the dollar and prohibited the free exchange of foreign currencies several months ago.

Private importers, who belong to the vast opposition that protested against the Chavez regime during the two-month old strike that ended in early February, were well aware that they would face difficulties in having their dollar requests processed. However, the indefinite delay was not being counted on.

Chavez had announced that he would ban certain enterprises from bidding for dollars and made a list of all those strategic resources, which would qualify for foreign currency buys. Venezuela imports 60 percent of finished goods and raw materials.

So far, the total lack of imports has hit not only the shelves but also Venezuelans’ demand for consumer products. In comparison to 2001, sales of basic food products have decreased by 8.5 to 9 percent. There are industrial sectors that have decreased between 15 and 20 percent as a direct cause of the lack of dollars. These will have a hard time getting back on track with inventories, which are about to be depleted within the next few days and weeks.

The future of business looks bleak in Venezuela, with an estimated 75 percent of companies that will have to fire workers. Unemployment is expected to increase to 30 percent, adding to the plummeting demand and crumbling industries.

Chavez seized the opportunity of a business sector weakened by the general strike, imposing the foreign currency control and openly admitted that the measure would be used as a political instrument when he stated that “not one dollar would be sold to the coup-plotters,” as he calls representatives of the business sectors.

Among the products blacklisted for dollar sales is paper, which promises to threaten the survival of local newspapers, a major threat to public order according to Chavez.

Chavez is carrying out his strategy to stay in power by having the government import most of the basic food products. Military officials have been designated for the trade of goods and cheap prices are guaranteed to the increasingly impoverished population. US$800 million of apparently already committed funds for the year’s health and education budget will be rerouted in an agricultural subsidy. Of course, the transaction is illegal.

The president of Cadivi, the Chamber of Agriculture, said: "We view the entry of the government in a realm that traditionally belonged to the private enterprise by selling products at cheaper prices as illegal competition. The sole fact that Chavez will use military forces for product distribution and that these soldiers will not be formally paid for this represents a disrespect to the Constitution and economic freedom in Venezuela” (www.eluniversal.com, April 6).

April 14: Eighteen congressmen in Venezuela, members of the Chavez-supporting party Movement of the Fifth Republic (MVR), are pushing to condemn political activism with harsh jail sentences.

The 18 are some of the most protested pro-Chavez government officials and have possibly had a hard time going to lunch or traveling by plane. The revolutionaries are obviously disturbed and do not tolerate the sounds of cups and pans against tableware, the symbol of protest in Venezuela.

The articles read “any kind of threat against a government official or civil servant … to intimidate him, pressure him to stop or continue doing something related to his post will be punished with jail sentences ranging from one to three years or two to four in the case of higher government official.”

Incitement to acts that violate the public order through the media or any other medium will also be punished with sentences of up to 10 years, according to a second article. Worse yet, incitement to hatred of government officials will face sentences of three to six years.

If the crimes are considered provokers of stoppages of food distribution or oil production, the verdict of treason to the nation could be applied and punished with up to 10 years in years in prison or submitted to military tribunal.

The articles are written so vaguely that the line between a criminal act and any kind political activity is blurred, leaving the decision to incriminate or not entirely to the judges’ discretion. It is well known that the Supreme Courts of Justice in Venezuela are not an entirely independent body and that President Hugo Chavez is calling for expanding the number of appointed judges in the hope to secure a majority that will cater to his political goals.

The proposal came directly from the Presidential Palace to Congress, obviating the usual procedure that rules the initial approval of the Judicial Commission in the legislative body, signaling weakened support for the president in what used to be his territory.

It is unpredictable how congressmen will vote in relation to the project, especially in view of the clear applicability of the law to the president himself, who is the main instigator or violence and hatred. It is hoped that congressmen who have turned to the opposition ranks will not try to vote against Chavez by approving the law.

Guerrillas Desert in Colombia, Go for Rehab April 7: For the first time in Colombia, a guerrilla group of eight, including the head of the troop, handed itself in to military authorities. The National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels, who had fought with the Guevarist and second-largest guerrilla organization of Colombia, brought their arms with them. Deserting with arms warrants the highest punishment for the deserters by the guerrilla organization.

The escaped rebels said to be deceived and demoralized because of the way they were treated in the guerrilla movement.

The eight were added to the list of 270 rebels who deserted the guerrilla organizations in 2002. Since the beginning of the "demobilization" process that has been in place for already four years, 2,575 men and women have joined the benefits program offered by the government.

These people will have a chance at reinserting themselves into society with the warranty of education financing, paid health programs and the option of a credit for a small business after two years. The costly program, however, is possibly underfunded and has prompted the government of Uribe to lobby for a tax that would be directly destined to pay for social rehabilitation efforts.

Ex-guerrilla soldiers are also granted amnesty under the reinsertion program, except when accused of crimes to humanity, which are dealt with at the International Criminal Tribunal according to the Rome Treaty, signed by 63 nations during former President Pastrana’s government. The inclusion of a clause in the Rome Treaty that prevents guerrilla soldiers from being sued for war crimes within the context of civil war in Colombia for seven years since the signing of the treaty signals certain openness of the Colombian government to dialogue amid a strong military campaign aimed at eradicating terrorism.

Along the same lines, the governors of 23 states harshly affected by guerrilla warfare and massive population mobilizations are drafting proposals to the government to allow humanitarian settlements with the armed rebels, as well as increased social investment at the regional level.

Legally, negotiations with guerrilla groups are handled solely by the central government but governors have openly declared the request for a certain decentralization of the power to mediate to be a measure of “pure and simple survival” (www.eltiempo.com, March 31).

It is uncertain whether a mixed strategy will work, but mounting violence in Colombia is putting Uribe’s strategy to rely purely on military action to a test.

FARC Executes Hostages - Emotional President Urges Colombia to Resist Terror Trained by US, Colombia unit gains - Reports successes against guerrillas*** In February, the United States gained a new impetus for its fight against the rebels. Three Americans identified by US authorities as civilian contractors were captured by the FARC after their plane crashed in southern Colombia. Two members of the crew -- one American and one Colombian -- were believed to have been killed by the guerrillas.

''We know specifically who is responsible,'' Jackman said. ''If I was the FARC, I would seriously reconsider what I have done and what my actions are.''

The upsurge in military action comes amid other signs that the United States is prepared to increase its presence in Colombia.

On Thursday, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said the United States is considering transferring some military equipment from Iraq to Colombia. Tomorrow, a group of House members is to introduce legislation to begin US military surveillance flights tracking Colombian arms traffickers.

Meanwhile, the US-trained Colombian battalion, taking a page from the US antiterrorism playbook, is targeting more rebel leaders. The strategy is ''to capture or kill those high-value targets'' such as senior FARC, ELN, and AUC commanders, leaving the groups in disarray, Jackman said.***

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