Posted on 05/11/2003 1:22:13 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
It's time to nominate Venezuela's populist President Hugo Chávez to the ''Milton Friedman Award'' for his indefatigable work to advance the cause of free-market policies and political harmony in the developing world.
I'm not kidding. No other head of state has done so much in such a short time to wreck his country's economy, and to discourage his neighbors from engaging in the kind of finger-waving populism that has brought about massive capital flight and record poverty levels in Venezuela.
If it weren't for the disastrous performance of Chávez's ''peaceful revolution,'' Brazil's new leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would have probably launched the anti-free market policies he had championed for the past three decades, several foreign diplomats and politicians told me during a recent trip to Brazil. And Ecuador and Argentina probably would have followed suit.
The whole region, disenchanted with the results of the U.S.-backed free-market reforms of the 1990s, would have made a political U-turn to embrace the free-spending, blame-the-oligarchy policies that destroyed many of Latin America's economies in the 1970s. It hasn't happened, largely because of Chávez's failures.
Consider what has happened in Venezuela since Chávez took office in February 1999. He declared that representative democracy ''is not useful to any Latin American government,'' proclaimed that Cuba is a ''sea of happiness,'' and began to make fiery, nationally televised speeches -- totaling 1,011 hours so far, averaging four hours each -- blaming the ''oligarchy'' for Venezuela's mounting problems.
INDICATORS DOWN
Despite a major rise in its oil income, virtually all of Venezuela's economic indicators have plummeted:
o The gross domestic product fell by 8.8 percent in 2002, and is likely to further drop by more than 10 percent this year, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America. This is worse than Argentina's much more publicized financial crisis, economists say.
o Capital flight has risen from $7.2 billion in 1999 to $10.5 billion in 2002, according to the Andean Development Corp. (CAF), a government-backed regional development bank. Since Chávez took office, $36.2 billion has fled Venezuela.
o Nearly 7,000 companies have shut down since 1998, Conindustria, an umbrella group for manufacturers said. From 11,539 companies, the number has dropped to 4,550, the group said Friday.
o Foreign investment has dropped by nearly 90 percent, from $4.2 billion in 1998 to $496 million in 2002, according to CAF. This year, it is likely to fall even further, independent economists say.
o Unemployment has grown from 15 percent when Chávez took office to 21 percent today, Venezuelan government figures show. According to former Inter-American Bank chief economist Ricardo Hausmann, poverty has increased by 2.5 million people during Chávez's term.
It's no wonder that, when I visited Brazil earlier this year, several well-placed politicians told me privately that Lula would follow responsible economic policies, because he has seen what happened in Venezuela. Lula himself has suggested that publicly more than once. ''President [Lula] rejects comparison to Venezuela,'' read a headline in O Estado de Sao Paulo on Jan. 27.
In fact, Brazil has gone out of its way to prove that it will not repeat Chávez's mistakes. Lula has moved aggressively to reduce public deficits, create an independent Central Bank, and to seek congressional approval of free-market pension and labor reforms that have won public applause from the International Monetary Fund and U.S. officials.
STRONGER ECONOMY
And it's working: since Lula took office Jan. 1 and moved to calm the markets, capital flight has diminished, Brazil's country risk -- the premium countries pay in their foreign debts because of investors' fears of a default -- has gone down, and the Brazilian currency is up about 15 percent against the dollar.
Lula was even quoted by the Brazilian magazine Veja as having stated last month that blaming U.S. imperialism for the disgraces of the Third World ``is a stupidity.''
Granted, Chávez is not the first one to have created more poverty while claiming to defend the poor.
President Fidel Castro of Cuba has managed to depress average income to the equivalent of $10 a month (yes, you've read right), one of the lowest in the world. But Castro lives on an island, and has been able to prohibit independent economic research for so long that his claims of social achievement were until recently taken at face value by many Latin Americans.
In recent times, nobody has done more for the cause of the free market than Chávez. If it weren't for the way he has ruined his country, Brazil -- which accounts for more than half of South America's economy -- would have taken a populist path, and swayed much of the rest of the region with it. Thanks, Hugo!
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