Taiwan Reports 35 New SARS Virus Cases

TBO ^ | May 21, 2003 | Steven Grauwels

[Judith Anne]

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- The World Health Organization extended its travel advisory to all of Taiwan on Wednesday as the island reported 35 new SARS cases and officials warned that the outbreak has yet to peak.

The U.N. health agency said it expanded the advisory - which originally included only the capital, Taipei - because the often-deadly virus had spread beyond the northern city.

"WHO is now recommending, as a measure of precaution, that people planning to travel to Taiwan ... consider postponing all but essential travel," the agency said.

With 418 cases and 52 deaths, Taiwan has the world's third-highest toll of severe acute respiratory syndrome after China and Hong Kong. More than 12,000 people are under quarantine.

WHO is advising against all nonessential travel to Hong Kong and to large parts of China, including the capital, Beijing.

Taiwanese health officials said the recent rapid rise in the number of SARS infections was because the disease hit the island later than China and Hong Kong, where the numbers of new cases have been falling. Taiwan is 100 miles east of China's southern coast.

Taiwanese officials reported 35 new cases Wednesday but no new deaths.

Su Yi-jen, chief of the island's Center for Disease Control, warned that SARS was spreading in southern Taiwan. "The coming week could see a peak in SARS cases in the south," he said.

However, Su added that if the disease could be contained within the hospitals, SARS could be under control within two weeks in the south.

SARS outbreaks last month closed two hospitals in Taipei. But the focus has since shifted to the southern city of Kaohsiung - home to one of the world's busiest container ports.

Taiwan fined two hospitals in Kaohsiung on Wednesday for allegedly covering up recent outbreaks, government spokesman Lin Chia-lung said.

One of the hospitals, Chang Gung Memorial, said it would appeal. The hospital said it had only been late in reporting the outbreak but had not tried to cover it up.

Another hospital in the south, Tainan's Chi Mei Hospital, quarantined 30 staff after six were reported with SARS, but denied it had lost control of the outbreak.

The global death toll from SARS stood at 666 on Wednesday.

China, the hardest hit country, reported only two deaths on Wednesday - one of the lowest daily tolls since the disease was first reported there in November. It had 12 new infections.

WHO is worried about a possible surge in new infections during China's annual summer flood season as overloaded sewage systems back up. Experts said the SARS virus doesn't appear to be transmitted by water but can survive for days in feces.

SARS has killed 296 people on China's mainland and infected more than 5,200.

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his entourage are undergoing daily medical checkups to ensure they aren't carrying the SARS virus when he meets Bush and other G-8 leaders next month in France.

In Singapore, dozens of SARS survivors appeared at a ceremony Wednesday to tell the public how they defeated their infections.

Ashirdahwani Asmawi, a 24-year-old nurse, was among about 50 recoverees who attended the event at Singapore's SARS-dedicated Tan Tock Seng Hospital.

"I became breathless," she said. "I saw my hands, my nailbeds and my toes turning blue (from lack of oxygen). I was panting always and felt as though I (were) drowning in the water. It was really frightening."

More than 160 people in Singapore have beaten severe acute respiratory syndrome. The city-state has recorded 28 deaths from 206 infected with the virus - 84 of them health care workers.

Asmawi caught SARS while treating two of the island's first SARS patients in early March before authorities realized they were dealing with a highly contagious and sometimes deadly new virus.

She spent about one month in the hospital, battling chills, fever and bone-splitting body aches but also fighting the loneliness and depression of being in isolation.

Dr. Ong Pei Yuin, 26, was convinced she had been misdiagnosed for SARS after developing a fever on March 19. She was bored and frustrated in the hospital - until her fever spiked so high she had to be sponged down with ice water, she said.

"It was then I realized that something was not quite right," she said. "My eyes almost popped out when I saw my own chest X-ray."

The X-ray showed her lungs were mottled with the illness.

"I wanted to be in the thick of action but I didn't expect it would be as a patient and not as a doctor," Ong said. She is still not sure how she contracted the disease.

All the survivors said tests showed they were free of the virus.

"We must demystify this disease," Health Minister Lim Hng Kiang said. "Fear Singaporeans have toward SARS should not translate to a fear of people who have recovered."

Surviving SARS patients in Singapore also received checks for $1,710, and recovered health care workers received $5,000. Singapore also pledged to give $30,000 to the families of medical workers who died from SARS and $10,000 to families of other SARS victims.

[Judith Anne]

This is what caught my eye, this morning, buried in the middle of the article:

Chinese President Hu Jintao and his entourage are undergoing daily medical checkups to ensure they aren't carrying the SARS virus when he meets Bush and other G-8 leaders next month in France.

What about his entourage? Will they also be checked? What if....

[Judith Anne]

See my comment above, for my concerns about President Bush...

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Good update, I was wondering how the media-created "epidemic" was going.

[harpseal]

Good update, I was wondering how the media-created "epidemic" was going.

Given the mortality rates with SARS and the fact that it communicable and the full nature of it is not yet fully understood and no vaccine is even feasable yet the media reports are IMHO quite justified.

[Excuse_My_Bellicosity]

Yeah, right. Since the anthrax hype didn't pan out, the media has to go create a panic about something else. If only we would pay this much attention to malaria and tuberculosis, which is killing tens of thousands a day. Sorry, 275 SARS deaths just doesn't compare. Hell, more people are dying from household cleaning accidents.

[Betty Jo]

See how SARS is interfacing with the Three Gorges Dam in China.

http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/tgp/index.cfm

[Judith Anne]

Nobody here is panicking. In case you didn't know, a very large percent are healthcare workers; it's a matter of concern to me this coming flu season. If you don't want to read about it, don't, and if you don't think you'll be personally impacted, no problem, right?

[Judith Anne]

Interesting link. What do you think is going on?

[Judith Anne]

Correction: "...a very large percent of SARS cases..."

[TaxRelief]

Isolation of groups coming from separate regions makes good sense, but considering the 'surface life' of SARS, they are going to have to be careful to keep surfaces clean.

It is a shame that the people of China are so intimidated that they are afraid to say, "Perhaps, I shouldn't go. I am not feeling well."

[Betty Jo]

Well nothing ,other than trying to get the dam up and running and producing electricity,and not having SARS put a "damper" on the whole process.

The articles just go to show how SARS is impacting everything,including the upcoming flood season in China, as mentioned in the article we are replying to.

If SARS stops work on the dam,what is the economic impact all over the world?

[Future Useless Eater]

The real headline should read "Taiwan Reports 35 New 'CRITICAL' SARS Virus Cases"

Reason is - Taiwan is cheating with the numbers. Nearly 90% of these patients labeled 'probable' cases are dying. They are all their CRITICAL cases.

The bulk of their SARS patients are labelled either 'suspected' or 'pending'.

'Pending' is a catch-all for SARS patients not-too-sick-yet so maybe we can deny those....

Taiwan's real 'probable' case count is approximately 418+474=891
So that would mean that that TODAY, they picked up 99 new SARS probabe case, not 35

[Future Useless Eater]

probabe --> probable

[Judith Anne]

Thanks for the information, I hadn't heard that.

[Dog Gone]

That sheds a whole new light on it. And not a flattering one.

[dc-zoo]

If all of Taiwan's probable cases are critical patients they could also be holding back numbers of pending and suspected cases so all of their categorie's numbers may be skewed. Not as misleading as china's numbers may be however.

[EternalHope]

Outstanding catch.

It also explains why Taiwan's mortality rate is so much higher than everyone else's.

[Future Useless Eater]

SARS Mortality Rates [reflects treatment] Based on World Health Organization daily tables                 (Revised:  May 21 pm)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Projected Future** Death Rate		Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Cumulative Mortality
China	2335	296	18.5%		2618	485	14.9%
Taiwan	71	52	92.9%		295	197	59.6%
Hong Kong	1237	255	11.6%		227	26	16.3%
elsewhere [30 countries]	442	63	2.1%		65	1	11.2%
World-wide [all 33 countries]	4085	666			3205	514	14.8%
**  Future deaths are based on findings from the Imperial College of London...... that deaths take 12 days longer on average than recoveries on average..... = (12-day recent deaths) / (12-day recent deaths + prior 12-day recoveries)

Observations - Treatment:
• Taiwan's high death rate is because they only report 'probable' cases when they are in CRITICAL condition.
• Taiwan maintains 'probable' and 'suspected' categories, AND ALSO a 'pending' category (474 patients), where they wait to see the severity of the symptoms before calling a patient a 'probable' case. Even their 'suspected' case counts are unusually high (504 patients)
• Taiwan's 'probable' count should be four or five hundred higher.
• China's numbers also seem underreported.

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger [reflects containment]
Date	China	Taiwan	Hong Kong	elsewhere 30 countries	World-wide all 33 countries
May 7	2854	88	466	115	3523
May 8	2945	92	445	106	3588
May 9	2993	110	442	101	3646
May 10	3029	128	427	99	3683
May 11 (est.)	3049	133	413	97	3692
May 12	3068	138	399	95	3700
May 13	3061	153	374	89	3677
May 14	3046	170	343	85	3644
May 15	3034	196	309	78	3617
May 16	2969	193	297	79	3538
May 17	2918	221	276	76	3491
May 18 (est.)	2870	254	263	73	3460
May 19	2799	249	250	70	3368
May 20	2700	268	236	69	3273
May 21	2618	295	227	65	3205
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery) (some tables are supplemented with government data when WHO data is missing)

Observations - Containment:
• I believe China's numbers are highly fictional, and Taiwan's count should be FOUR or FIVE HUNDRED higher.
• Taiwan is withholding 'probable' cases and calling them 'pending'
  
  
• Taiwan's active cases are still exploding, and most of these are in critical condition. 90% of these are dying.
                        May 21  (295) active cases
  Apr 30   (41) 

[Future Useless Eater]

SARS - Treatment/Containment tables - updated with Tuesday and Wednesday numbers here

[Domestic Church]

"What about his entourage?"

How about one of those paint sprayers a and water/bleach solution ....it will come in handy when Chirac begins to talk too.

(heck use a sprinkler on them)