Handicapping the Democratic Nine

The Washington Dispatch ^ | May 21, 2003 | CK Rairden

[schaketo]

Just like the horses pushed into the starting gate at last weekend’s Preakness Stakes horse race, the democrats are shoving their competitors into the chute. Even with the election nearly eighteen months away, the donkeys are loaded and it’s time to set the odds on the democratic nine.

-DENNIS KUCINICH----700-1. Kucinich bankrupted Cleveland in his short stint there. His candidacy is bankrupt in this nine-donkey race. He is beyond the fringe and has absolutely no shot at even finishing this race.

-CAROL MOSLEY BRAUN----650-1. The track insiders say that Mosley Braun only entered the race to take away votes from the Reverend Al. The insiders are right. Braun should be ashamed of herself. Wait a minute; Braun has no shame, and no shot.

-BOB GRAHAM----500-1. It’s beginning to look like Graham is willing to sacrifice his political soul for his party. His role in this mess seems to be to accuse President George W Bush of being soft on terrorism. That’s a loser among voters. Graham won’t finish this race and will lose tons of credibility from a long political career.

-AL SHARPTON----450-1. The oddsmakers are kind to Reverend Al. He is everyone’s favorite long shot as he is the only one in this field of dogs with any charisma. But Al is being attacked from within his own party, as they desperately want him gone. Hang in as long as you can Rev, at least you have some good quotes.

-HOWARD DEAN----100-1. Dean is the only one of these nine that is willing to admit he is on the left fringe. His latest accusation, we are headed for a depression. The left loves this guy and the GOP would love to see him win the nomination. This is the dark horse of the race. It would be an upset, but the democrats are so lost it could happen.

-JOHN EDWARDS----10-1. Two words, trial lawyer. That perceived black eye will likely haunt Edwards’s candidacy throughout the campaign. It will be even worse if he actually get the democratic nod. His contradictory stances during this dog and pony show may also put him at odds with his constituents in North Carolina. Edwards could not only lose here, but be voted out of the Senate if he is not careful. All or nothing.

-RICHARD GEPHARDT----10-1. Gephardt moved up making a bold move and forcing the other democrats answer his far-fetched health care proposal. Gephardt is a hardened shameless politician with tons of stories to tell. Some of them are even true. Zero charisma. Another democrat that the Bush Administration would love to see pull this off.

-JOHN F. KERRY----5-1. Kerry dreams of being Kennedyesque. He has a very wealthy wife, is able to raise money and has a fraction of name recognition. He has a very good shot in the democratic primary. He does come across as sleazy at times, and will say anything to anyone to get elected. Oh and if you listen to him for over fifteen seconds he will tell you that he served in Vietnam. If he pulls off the primary however, he could become Dukakisesque in the general election.

-JOE LIEBERMAN----3-1. Lieberman has jumped to the front of the line by going mainstream. He’ll need to wow the many different fringes of his fragmented party, but is the only candidate on the left who appears strong on defense. He has the ability to raise money, has name recognition from the 2000 race and has the best chance to dethrone Bush should he actually pull off the nomination. However, even though he is the favorite right now, Lieberman has backbone and may not have the political will to pander to the fringe of the left. Lieberman has to scare the Administration a bit.

No matter how you slice it, there is not a superstar in this bunch. Dry, boring and bland. 67% of the American voters can’t even name one of them as a presidential candidate. They are a group of has-beens and wannabes who may just be sacrificial lambs for the democrats in 2004. If this is the best the democrats have to offer, the party could be in more trouble than the party is willing to admit.

This group has already mentioned an upcoming depression, a president who is “soft” on terrorism, and playing the old worn out “tax breaks for the rich” line. Expect less originality, more desperation and massive attacks on each other as desperation begins to set in once the primaries kick in.

The odds will continue to change, and this column will follow it to 2004.

[dirtboy]

Actually, I think it's more like the handicapped Democratic Nine.

[schaketo]

=== Cut === Paste === Email to Friends and Family ===

In the upcoming democratic primary (2004) ...

BIG AL NEEDS OUR HELP! - Register as a democrat and vote for Crazy Al!

Rev. Al Sharpton is officially running for president in 2004.

During the May 3, 2003 demoncrap debate in Columbia, S.C., our man Al stated “The way to move a donkey is to slap the donkey,” and “I’m going to slap the donkey until the donkey kicks”.

Let’s help Crazy Al slap the donkey until it kicks.

Assume GW has the Republican nomination sewn up. Its time for all good republicans, libertarians, and independents to stand up and be counted. Lets take a page from Sen. McCain’s play book. Prior to the 2004 democratic presidential primary in your state, re-register as a democrat and vote for Al Sharpton!

Wouldn’t it be great if Crazy Al won! At the very least, lets ensure he gets prime time speaking rights at the 2004 nationally televised democratic convention. You gotta love it. Line up, sign up, and send this to all your like-minded friends.

Check here for the rules governing primary voting in your state: http://www.fec.gov/votregis/primaryvoting.htm

In case you’d like to send Big Al a donation:
http://www.sharptonexplore2004.com/

Anyone need a bumper sticker or button?
http://democraticbuttons.freeservers.com/

How about an Al Sharpton yard sign?
http://shop.store.yahoo.com/victorystore00/pryasi.html

Oh yea, and don’t forget to call the local demoncrap party headquarters and ask them the following before the primary election:

1. Can I get a ride to the polls – help them spend their money during the primaries so they’ll have less during the national election. Have them take you the scenic route and stop off and do some shopping on the way home.
2. Are you giving anything away free for voting democrat? Cigarettes, box of cigars, box lunch, etc. Ask for two of each.
3. Send 25 cents in the mail to the DNC and watch how much they spend on mailing you to give to the party. Great way to help them spend money and keep you up to date on their propaganda.
4. Can you think of any other questions we should as them?

=== Cut === Paste === Email to Friends and Family ===

[Beernoser]

not to be picky, but the combined odds only add up to 75 %. Do Al Gore and Hillry split the other 25 % CHANCE OF GETTING THE NOD?

[longtermmemmory]

-BOB GRAHAM----500-1. It’s beginning to look like Graham is willing to sacrifice his political soul for his party. His role in this mess seems to be to accuse President George W Bush of being soft on terrorism. That’s a loser among voters. Graham won’t finish this race and will lose tons of credibility from a long political career.

*** * ** * *

Grahm is Florida's senator. He has a long popular history as a former FL governor. He is in the race to deliver FL. He is also testing the water as a potential VP candidate. His senility, oops, age will counter the gravitas bush gained, per democrat mindset, via cheney. The DNC is obsessed with FL and are still fighting to find ways to set the FL equation in their favor. (they must believe Calif. and Texas are respective locks)

[Timesink]

-DENNIS KUCINICH: Will lose.

-CAROL MOSLEY BRAUN: Will lose.

-BOB GRAHAM: Will lose.

-AL SHARPTON: Will lose, but will have the time of his life in the process, show up the RAT party for the racist scum they are, and be deeply entertaining to watch.

-HOWARD DEAN: Will lose.

-JOHN EDWARDS: Will lose.

-RICHARD GEPHARDT: Will lose.

-JOHN F. KERRY: Will lose.

-JOE LIEBERMAN: Will lose.

And because I know someone will be stupid enough to ask:

-HILLARY G--DAMN CLINTON: Will not run, will not be drafted.

[m1911]

"combined odds only add up to 75 %"

The other 25% is the house's take. :)

[Congressman Billybob]

A short version of this article is this: If you shove nine plowhorses into the starting gate at Saratoga and cry, "They're off," the result you get is not the Belmont Stakes. There are only two hopes for the Democrats to win, as accidentally but eloquently expressed by hard-left Ellen Ratner, live on Fox News.

Either enough Americans must die to make the United States turn against George Bush, or the economy must go into the tank sufficiently to make the US turn against Bush. Absent either of these two disasters, it is absolutely irrelevant who the Democrats cough up as their nominee. The Republicans will hold the White House, and will increase their margins in both the House and the Senate.

Did I miss anything?

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, now up FR, "The Knight of Draper's Liquor Store."

[ReaganRevolution]

They are a group of has-beens and wannabes who may just be sacrificial lambs for the democrats in 2004.

This is true, they are all clearing the decks for Hillary 2008.

[Burlem]

"Lurch"aka John Kerry gives me the creeps, he blasted the heck out of his military life at the time he was serving and soon after. He made a big deal of throwing his medals over a fence in protest, but in reality the medals were someone elses, his are on the walls of his senate office.
I cannot imagine listening to and looking at this characterfor four years.
Al Sharpton is upsetting the apple cart (applaud) he is the only one that can speak, should be fun to see all of these folks in a debate. I think the others are fearful of Sharpton, as he CAN out debate them, he will make them look foolish; nevermind that what Al says does not make a lick of sense.

[Destructor]

Any one of them would be a perfect representative for the party of the jackass!

[P.O.E.]

Who is this masked man riding up on a dark horse:

He tried a brief resucitation tour when his book came out (and failed, of course), but he may yet give it another try.

[The Iguana]

If Lieberman gets the nod, you can bank on a major Green Party defection next November.

The Democratic base has no enthusiasm for Joe at all. And that's why he has little chance of actually winning many primaries.

[Jhensy]

I've been saying Edwards/Clark for a while now, but I think Howard Dean might grab the nomination because the Dems increasingly feel they have nothing to lose. Might as well go with the McGovern/McCarthy/Stevenson candidate to keep your idiotic conscience clean.

They'll lose 49 states, but feel righteous about doing so, which is half the game to these naive fools.

[jpl]

Pretty good assessment for the most part, but I still think that many people are seriously underestimating Edwards. I'd put him at no worse than 4-1 or 5-1. The hard left in America absolutely loves crusading trial lawyers, even though most normal people detest them. He's got the hair, the accent, the slickness, he can sound moderate when he absolutely needs to, and being a lawyer he's no doubt a skilled truth-twister. In short, he's Clinton without the sexual perversions, and early on nobody thought Clinton stood much of a chance either.

[Teacher317]

At 3-1, Lieberman is the favorite... and I don't see many blacks, hard-core Leftists, or Arab-appeasers electing a Jewish man... especially to be in control of the national policy regarding the Middle East as well as the affirmative action handouts.

They should go with the 5-1 Kerry or the 10-1 Edwards or Gephart.

Kerry has the albatross wife and the Kennedy complex, which would get him eaten alive by Leno, Letterman, and other humorists (which is how probably 1/3 of the electorate gets their information). Edwards is slimy, and may not win his home state (and the Dems don't want that unheard of stat becoming identified with their party after hitting it twice in a row), so I'd go with Gephart. He could probably take his home state, and he's waited a long time for his shot. The Dem HQ can throw him this bone after all these years of loyalty, pretending to be appreciative... then blame him for failing to win, and discard him like they do to the rest. That clears the slate for Hillary in 2008.

[kalt]

"combined odds only add up to 75%"

The other 25% is the house's take. :)

For the house to make money, it would have to add up to more than 100%, not less. If there were only two people running and they put the odds for either at 2-1 and you bet one dollar on both, you would have a guaranteed profit and the house would have a guaranteed loss.

[P.O.E.]

Interesting that they already have buttons for not only these 9, but also Hillary, Daschle, McGreevey, and of course (you shoulda known this was coming) "Re-elect Gore"

[Stefan Stackhouse]

The thing is though, that Iowa looms very large for the Dems -- probably more than it does for the GOP. Whichever Dem wins Iowa has a very strong advantage over their competition. And guess who is running from a next-door state? Gephart. And he is the ONLY Dem running from anywhere nearby (among the serious candidates, that is -- Carol MB hardly counts). The Dems in Iowa know Gephart well. Labor Unions weigh very strongly in Iowa Dem politics, and Gephart is their man. I'd have to give Gephart the lead in Iowa, which means that he is really the front runner for the primaries, which is what really count.

For all practical purposes, this is a Gephart, Lieberman, Kerry race, and all the others are just background noise. I can't see Lieberman winning in Iowa and NH or hardly anywhere else except maybe NY, and that will be too little too late. So it realy will come down to Gephart or Kerry. Kerry will do better on the coasts, Gephart better in flyover country. It could be a close rase, but if either one stumbles, the other becomes a sure deal. (For the nomination, that is, NOT the election.)

[m1911]

That would make the other 25% MY house's take then. :)