Posted on 05/24/2003 7:16:51 AM PDT by jern
Poll: N.C. not enamored of Edwards Survey says Bush would win in senator's home state; Senate re-election bid also in jeopardy
By JOHN WAGNER, Washington Correspondent
GORHAM, N.H. -- This week, U.S. Sen. John Edwards pitched a rural revitalization plan in Iowa. He mingled with high-tech executives in northern Virginia. And on Friday, after voting against President Bush's tax cut in Washington, he flew here for a two-day swing through New Hampshire.
This is the kind of schedule that presidential candidates have to keep, with lots of appearances outside their home state. But the activity doesn't appear to be helping Edwards in North Carolina. If the 2004 election were today, President Bush would prevail over Edwards in his own state, 57 percent to 39 percent, according to a new poll commissioned by The News & Observer. The margin is virtually unchanged since January, when Edwards announced his intention to seek the White House.
Five months into the race, more North Carolinians still disapprove of Edwards' running for president than those who favor his bid. The latest poll, conducted Sunday through Wednesday, found 51 percent disapprove while 45 percent approve.
"He's just not doing anything to make North Carolinians fall in love with him at this point,'' said Del Ali, president of Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., which conducted the poll for The N&O.
The poll also found that support for Edwards' Senate re-election has slipped in recent months. Edwards has not said what he plans to do about his Senate seat, which is on the ballot in 2004. But if he were to run, the poll found that 32 percent would vote to re-elect Edwards, while 33 percent would consider voting for another candidate and 35 percent plan to vote to replace him.
The percentage who would vote to re-elect Edwards has dropped 7 points since January, while the percentage of those who would consider voting for another candidate has jumped 8 points in the same period. The percentage who plan to replace him also has climbed by 3 points.
In a hypothetical matchup with U.S. Rep. Richard Burr, a Winston-Salem Republican seeking the GOP's Senate nomination, Edwards would prevail, however, 47 percent to 36 percent, according to the poll. Seventeen percent remain undecided.
Burr said he was "delighted'' with the numbers, given how much better known Edwards is across North Carolina right now.
"Anytime you see the incumbent below 50 percent, you know there's a vulnerability,'' said Burr, whose candidacy is being pushed by the White House.
In a brief interview Friday, Edwards said he doesn't put much stock in "interim poll results."
"We're just going to keep working, and as we move toward the election we'll have a good result," he said.
After voting against a tax-cut package he dubbed "irresponsible,'' Edwards arrived in northern New Hampshire and headed to a paper mill, where he toured the operations and then walked to a nearby pizza parlor to greet workers after their shift ended. Voters here will be among the first in the nation to have a say in picking the Democratic nominee when they hold their primary in January 2004.
There is precedent for overcoming early home-state skepticism in presidential races. At a similar period in the 1992 cycle, Bill Clinton faced a 25-point gap in his home state of Arkansas when matched up against the elder President Bush.
But interviews with those polled suggest Edwards faces a major sales job at home if he is to bring Tar Heels on board.
Cassidy Deaton, a nursing student at UNC-Wilmington, said she has no problem with Edwards running. "Everyone has the right to run, I guess," she said.
But Deaton, 19, is a Republican and said she can't envision voting for anyone but Bush in 2004. "I just really believe in him and what he's doing," she said.
In fact, if the presidential election were today, Edwards could expect virtually no support in North Carolina from Republicans. The poll found they would support Bush, 92 percent to 3 percent. Meanwhile, Edwards would win 78 percent of his own party members, but Bush would carry a substantial slice of Democrats in North Carolina -- 21 percent. Independents also favored Bush over Edwards, 58 percent to 36 percent.
Clearly, one of the biggest obstacles Edwards faces is Bush's post-war popularity, which analysts expect to eventually fade.
Recent polls have shown some of Edwards' 2004 rivals, including U.S. Sen. Bob Graham of Florida, trailing the president in their home states as well.
Edwards' bid has produced resentment from voters in North Carolina who feel he has abandoned his responsibilities to North Carolina.
"He was elected to represent the state, and he has not functioned in that role,'' said Del Kapp, a retiree who used to work as a project manager at the state Department of Transportation.
Others polled were more charitable.
"I see no reason why he shouldn't, if that's what he aspires to," said Olivia Gilmore, a retired social worker in Durham and a Democrat. Gilmore, 59, said Edwards has appeared to represent her ably in the Senate, though she would need to learn more about other potential Democratic presidential candidates before deciding whom to support.
Washington correspondent John Wagner can be reached at (202) 662-4380 or jwagner@mcclatchydc.com.
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, MD from May 18 through May 21, 2003. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or region.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men: 290 (48%)
Women: 310 (52%)
Democrats: 279 (47%)
Republicans: 227 (37%)
Independents: 94 (16%)
White: 503 (84%)
Black: 97 (16%)
Greensboro/Winston Salem: 111 interviews
Charlotte: 144 interviews
Raleigh/Durham: 135 interviews
Northeastern: 64 interviews
Southeastern: 68 interviews
West: 78 interviews
QUESTION: I am going to list the names of a few individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each one, I would simply like for you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize the individual, I will then ask you if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that individual.
A. The first name is ________. Do you recognize that name?
B. (IF YES) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NO OPINION | |
| John Edwards | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| George W. Bush | 66% | 25% | 9% |
| Richard Burr | 32% | 17% | 51% |
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as President; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
| EXCELLENT | GOOD | FAIR | POOR | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 17% | 53% | 22% | 8% | - |
| MEN | 21% | 55% | 20% | 4% | - |
| WOMEN | 13% | 51% | 24% | 12% | - |
| WHITE | 24% | 59% | 15% | 2% | - |
| BLACK | 2% | 11% | 57% | 30% | - |
| DEMOCRATS | 10% | 30% | 42% | 18% | - |
| REPUBLICANS | 26% | 71% | 2% | 1% | - |
| INDEPENDENTS | 15% | 57% | 21% | 7% | - |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 19% | 54% | 20% | 7% | - |
| CHARLOTTE | 19% | 53% | 21% | 7% | - |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 14% | 50% | 27% | 9% | - |
| NORTHEASTERN | 14% | 51% | 27% | 8% | - |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 14% | 51% | 25% | 10% | - |
| WEST | 22% | 59% | 12% | 7% | - |
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of Mike Easley as Governor; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
| EXCELLENT | GOOD | FAIR | POOR | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 8% | 44% | 35% | 6% | 7% |
| MEN | 6% | 42% | 40% | 9% | 3% |
| WOMEN | 10% | 46% | 30% | 3% | 11% |
| WHITE | 4% | 39% | 40% | 11% | 6% |
| BLACK | 26% | 56% | 3% | 2% | 13% |
| DEMOCRATS | 12% | 64% | 18% | 3% | 3% |
| REPUBLICANS | 5% | 22% | 54% | 11% | 8% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 46% | 33% | 4% | 10% | |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 7% | 40% | 40% | 7% | 6% |
| CHARLOTTE | 7% | 41% | 36% | 6% | 10% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 11% | 50% | 30% | 4% | 5% |
| NORTHEASTERN | 48% | 31% | 4% | 7% | |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 8% | 47% | 31% | 6% | 8% |
| WEST | 5% | 38% | 42% | 9% | 6% |
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of John Edwards as U.S. Senator; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
| EXCELLENT | GOOD | FAIR | POOR | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 4% | 42% | 39% | 6% | 9% |
| MEN | 3% | 39% | 42% | 9% | 7% |
| WOMEN | 5% | 45% | 36% | 3% | 11% |
| WHITE | 2% | 36% | 45% | 12% | 5% |
| BLACK | 19% | 56% | 5% | 2% | 18% |
| DEMOCRATS | 8% | 66% | 18% | 2% | 6% |
| REPUBLICANS | 2% | 20% | 60% | 12% | 6% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 3% | 40% | 39% | 4% | 14% |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 2% | 38% | 44% | 6% | 10% |
| CHARLOTTE | 2% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 8% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 6% | 47% | 33% | 4% | 10% |
| NORTHEASTERN | 6% | 47% | 34% | 4% | 9% |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 6% | 46% | 34% | 4% | 10% |
| WEST | 2% | 34% | 46% | 12% | 6% |
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote to reelect John Edwards, would consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Edwards?
| REELECT | CONSIDER | REPLACE | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 32% | 33% | 35% | - |
| MEN | 28% | 31% | 41% | - |
| WOMEN | 36% | 35% | 29% | - |
| WHITE | 26% | 37% | 37% | - |
| BLACK | 77% | 4% | 1% | 18% |
| DEMOCRATS | 66% | 25% | 9% | - |
| REPUBLICANS | 3% | 39% | 58% | - |
| INDEPENDENTS | 27% | 35% | 38% | - |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 28% | 33% | 39% | - |
| CHARLOTTE | 29% | 34% | 37% | - |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 39% | 32% | 29% | - |
| NORTHEASTERN | 40% | 32% | 28% | - |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 38% | 32% | 30% | - |
| WEST | 18% | 35% | 47% | - |
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Edwards, the Democrat, and Richard Burr, the Republican?
| EDWARDS | BURR | UNDECIDED | |
| ALL | 47% | 36% | 17% |
| MEN | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WOMEN | 50% | 31% | 19% |
| WHITE | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| BLACK | 75% | 2% | 23% |
| DEMOCRATS | 85% | 8% | 7% |
| REPUBLICANS | 8% | 68% | 24% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| CHARLOTTE | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 55%V 27% | 18% | |
| NORTHEASTERN | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| WEST | 39% | 47% | 14% |
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of John Edwards running for President in 2004?
| APPROVE | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE | ||
| ALL | 45% | 51% | 4% | |
| MEN | 41% | 56% | 3% | |
| WOMEN | 49% | 46% | 5% | |
| WHITE | 40% | 57% | 3% | |
| BLACK | 65% | 10% | 25% | |
| DEMOCRATS | 79% | 17% | 4% | |
| REPUBLICANS | 9% | 84% | 7% | |
| INDEPENDENTS | 47% | 52% | 1% | |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 40% | 52% | 8% | |
| CHARLOTTE | 42% | 55% | 3% | |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 52% | 46% | 2% | |
| NORTHEASTERN | 51% | 46% | 3% | |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 51% | 47% | 2% | |
| WEST | 34% | 60% | 6% |
QUESTION: Which of the following best describes why you disapprove? (ONLY ASKED AMONG THE 51% WHO RESPONDED "DISAPPROVE" IN PREVIOUS QUESTION)
I approve of the job he is doing as senator and I would prefer he continue to represent me as my senator, OR
I approve of the job he is doing as senator but don't believe he's suited to be president, OR
I disapprove of the job he is doing as senator but don't believe he's suited to be president?
Not Sure
| REPRESENT | NOT SUITED | DISAPPROVE | NOT SURE |
| 36% | 16% | 46% | 2% |
DEMOCRATIC SECTION ONLY (500 DEMOCRATIC VOTERS)
A. The first name is ________. Do you recognize that name?
B. (IF YES) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NO OPINION | |
| John Edwards | 63% | 25% | 12% |
| Richard Gephardt | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Al Sharpton | 13% | 45% | 42% |
| Joe Lieberman | 35% | 21% | 44% |
| John Kerry | 40% | 14% | 46% |
| Howard Dean | 25% | 16% | 59% |
| Bob Graham | 22% | 11% | 67% |
| Carol Mosely Braun | 6% | 7% | 87% |
| Wesley Clark | 10% | 2% | 88% |
| Dennis Kucinich | 2% | 4% | 94% |
QUESTION: If the Democratic primary for President were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for? (NAMES ROTATED):
| ALL | MEN | WOMEN | |
| John Edwards | 41% | 40% | 42% |
| John Kerry | 22% | 20% | 24% |
| Richard Gephardt | 12% | 14% | 10% |
| Joe Lieberman | 10% | 12% | 8% |
| Howard Dean | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Al Sharpton | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| Carol Mosely Braun | 1% | - | 2% |
| Bob Graham | 1% | - | - |
| Wesley Clark | - | - | - |
| Dennis Kucinich | - | - | - |
| Undecided (NOT READ) | 2% | 1% | 5% |
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Edwards, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?
| BUSH | EDWARDS | UNDECIDED | |
| ALL | 57% | 39% | 4% |
| MEN | 62% | 35% | 3% |
| WOMEN | 52% | 43% | 5% |
| WHITE | 63% | 34% | 3% |
| BLACK | 2% | 83% | 15% |
| DEMOCRATS | 21% | 78% | 1% |
| REPUBLICANS | 92% | 3% | 5% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 58% | 36% | 6% |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 63% | 35% | 2% |
| CHARLOTTE | 63% | 36% | 1% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| NORTHEASTERN | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| WEST | 66% | 31% | 3% |
QUESTION: Do you believe John Edwards has the necessary qualifications to be President of the United States?
| YES | NO | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| MEN | 40% | 52% | 8% |
| WOMEN | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| WHITE | 38% | 54% | 8% |
| BLACK | 69% | 6% | 25% |
| DEMOCRATS | 75% | 21% | 4% |
| REPUBLICANS | 14% | 70% | 16% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 38% | 51% | 11% |
| CHARLOTTE | 39% | 51% | 10% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| NORTHEASTERN | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| WEST | 34% | 57% | 9% |
QUESTION: What is the single most important issue facing North Carolina?
Economy/jobs: 35%
Taxes/state spending: 24%
Health care: 15%
Education: 14%
Medicare: 7%
Transportation: 3%
Crime/drugs: 1%
Other/DK: 1%
QUESTION: Do you feel North Carolina overall is heading in the right direction or wrong direction?
| RIGHT | WRONG | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 37% | 42% | 21% |
| MEN | 39% | 40% | 21% |
| WOMEN | 35% | 44% | 21% |
| WHITE | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| BLACK | 3% | 59% | 38% |
| DEMOCRATS | 28% | 57% | 15% |
| REPUBLICANS | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 37% | 39% | 24% |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 38% | 39% | 23% |
| CHARLOTTE | 37% | 40% | 23% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 37% | 47% | 16% |
| NORTHEASTERN | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| WEST | 39% | 32% | 29% |
QUESTION: Can you tell us anything about the recent controversy surrounding North Carolina's Agriculture Commissioner Meg Scott Phipps?
77% Mentions anything about two of Phipps' top aids having to plead guilty to extortion or other charges related to the award of contracts for the state fair.
23% Mentions anything else/DK
QUESTION: As you may know, two of Phipps' top aides have pleaded guilty to extortion and other charges related to the award of contracts for the state fair, which the Agriculture Department administers. Do you believe that Phipps, who herself faces no charges, should resign?
| YES | NO | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| MEN | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| WOMEN | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| WHITE | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| BLACK | 27% | 40% | 33% |
| DEMOCRATS | 9% | 40% | 21% |
| REPUBLICANS | 67% | 12% | 21% |
| INDEPENDENTS | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| GREENSBORO/WS | 56% | 19% | 25% |
| CHARLOTTE | 54% | 20% | 26% |
| RALEIGH/DURHAM | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| NORTHEASTERN | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| SOUTHEASTERN | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| WEST | 56% | 22% | 22% |
QUESTION: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The Phipps campaign scandal makes me less likely to vote for a Democrat in 2004.
| AGREE | DISAGREE | NO EFFECT |
| 19% | 17% | 64% |
QUESTION: As you may know, the Scott family has been involved in North Carolina politics since 1827. Is your overall opinion of the Scott family favorable, unfavorable or neutral?
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NEUTRAL |
| 54% | 21% | 25% |
QUESTION: Would you vote again for another member of the Scott family? (ONLY ASKED AMONG THOSE WHO ANSWERED "FAVORABLE" OR "NEUTRAL" IN PREVIOUS QUESTION)
| YES | NO | NOT SURE |
| 55% | 22% | 23% |
Economy/jobs: 25%
Taxes/federal spending: 21%
Homeland security: 16%
War on Terror: 12%
Health care (HMO's): 10%
Social security: 6%
Medicare: 5%
Education: 4%
Other/DK: 1%
...Like two peas in a lockbox.
QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as President; excellent, pretty good, only fair, or poor?
| EXCELLENT | GOOD | FAIR | POOR | NOT SURE | |
| ALL | 17% | 53% | 22% | 8% | - |
| MEN | 21% | 55% | 20% | 4% | - |
| WOMEN | 13% | 51% | 24% | 12% | - |
I get so tired of people blaming all the ills of the world on women's vote. All of my friends are conservative gals. My brother's in law are democrats, as was my father.
Looks like the numbers are similar for men and women on Bush....
I don't know ANY liberals gals here in town!
Let's see see oust that con artist weasel Edwards for NC Senator!
75% dims think he's qualified for president. 69% Blacks think he is qualified for president.
By golly, he can't run a state so we might as well have him run the country???
It is unclear whether his FBI file will surface, he will suffer undisclosed "medical problems", or he will arkancide (I suppose the choice will depend on factors unknown at the present time).
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