(Congressman-D) Hoeffel may take on Specter

The Patriot News ^ | 5/30/03 | Peter L. DeCoursey

[LdSentinal]

U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel, D-Montgomery, is exploring a challenge to U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter's 2004 re-election bid.

Hoeffel, who was elected in a Republican-leaning district in a series of expensive, targeted, high-profile elections, said, "I'm taking a look at it, looking at some polling data that shows the senator is vulnerable.

"I have some more people to talk to, some more issues to consider," the Abington Twp. Democrat said. "It's a little premature to talk about this, people are talking to me about running, but my current plan is to run for re-election to Congress."

Specter, a Republican, has an active primary challenger next year in U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Allentown. However, the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee has searched for months, mostly fruitlessly, for a viable candidate.

Sen. Jon Corzine, D-New Jersey, has tried to persuade several Democrats to run against Specter.

Corzine stresses that the party is seeking a popular, electable candidate who can raise the $5 million to $10 million required to compete with Specter, who was elected to the Senate in 1980. Virtually every big-name Democrat that Corzine wooed, including Billy King, president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, has declined to challenge Specter.

But Hoeffel, an early target in Corzine's hunt, is looking at whether to seek re-election to his House seat. He narrowly won in 2002, so he could benefit from Gov. Ed Rendell's popularity in his district, or he could opt to run for Senate.

Democratic consultant and Fox-29 TV analyst Larry Ceisler said Hoeffel will face tough Republican and possibly even Northeast Philadelphia Democratic challengers, "every election for the rest of his career, so this is not a bad run for him. And he has the potential, as a battle-tested winner of tough elections in a swing district, to cut into Arlen's base in the southeast.

"The problem is that Joe is not a prolific fund-raiser and he doesn't like raising money. So unless the U.S. Senate Democrats give him a rock-solid promise that they will raise the millions he will need, this is a kamikaze mission for Joe. Because he shares a fund-raising base with Arlen, and Arlen can basically shut Joe out of their shared fund-raising base."

The only other Democrat who's announced he's exploring a candidacy is former Public Utility Commissioner John Hanger of Hummelstown. Hanger, like Hoeffel, is considered to be smart and aggressive enough to mount a candidacy, but lacks Hoeffel's history of raising more than $1 million for elections.

Hoeffel said yesterday that determining whether he could raise enough to mount a competitive challenge, a figure experts estimate at a minimum of $5 million, was "one of the things I am considering."

He also said that gauging whether his fund-raising base would opt for Specter instead of him, "is another issue I am looking at."

Some insiders said that Toomey's candidacy was part of the reason Hoeffel, who had initially ruled out a Specter challenge, was now taking a second look.

Many Democratic strategists believe that a moderate Democrat like Hoeffel would have a much better chance of defeating Toomey, who is running as a conservative, than Specter, whom voters define as a moderate.

"I think Toomey does have a good shot of defeating Specter in the primary," Hoeffel said yesterday, before adding, "but you have to go into this assuming you might face either of them."

Hoeffel would have to give up his seat in Congress to run for the Senate, and sources close to him say he is unlikely to do so, despite being moved into a Philadelphia-Montgomery hybrid district that he nearly lost in 2002. Hoeffel and former U.S. Rep. Bob Borski, D-Philadelphia, were paired up by the Republican-drafted congressional redistricting plan. Borski retired to avoid a primary with Hoeffel, an old friend and ally.

[Sparta]

Hopefully, "Scottish Law" Specter won't make it past the primary.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Follow up to other thread on PA Senate race. I find the description of liberal Joe Hoeffel (emphasis on "Ho") as a "moderate" most humorous.

[Princeliberty]

Be interesting to see what Rendell promises.
When it comes to Specter the Democrats never
really gone to mate to really try to get
the big bucks for anyone.
Why no Casey being mentioned in the race?

[Princeliberty]

My guess would be Joe will wait until 2006
run when he will not be sharing the same fundraising
base with Santorum.
Plus Joe probably likes Specter.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Casey might be burned out from last year's fiasco. You're also probably right about Hoeffel waiting until '06. If the 'Rats think they're going to get some traction on Santorum's comments on gays (which, as we all know, were taken dramatically out of context), they'll be in for a shock.

[Kuksool]

I doubt that the sons of Casey will be able to win statewide in PA. The pro-aborts have taken over the PA RAT party. In 2000, The RATS had a good shot to unseat Santorum with Ron Klink. However, the Philly liberals were disgusted with Klink's pro-2A and pro-life stands. They referred to him as "Santorum Lite". They refused to give support to Klink. Santorum outspent Klink, 10M to 3M. Thus, Santorum defeated Klink, 52-46, even with Gore carrying the Keystone State. If Klink had some serious campign funds, he might have been able to ride the Gore wave.

[fieldmarshaldj]

All true, although one problem is that Klink was not exactly Mr. Personality, he was rather a jerk.

[Kuksool]

{Klink was not exactly Mr. Personality, he was rather a jerk}

The same could be said about Al Gore.

[Princeliberty]

He might be waiting and letting the Democrats
get desperate so they will pledge to clear the field
and keep Emily's list and NARAL off is back.

Probably Rendell has put of bad signals too,
Rendell probably wants someone he can control
so he will have no who could challenge his
control of the state party.
However, the Democrats may be forced to
turn to Casey.

[fieldmarshaldj]

If Specter wins reelection, he better plan on keeping himself the model of good health, because Rendell is counting on his reelection knowing he'll drop dead in the next term so he can install a hack. That hack ain't gonna be Casey, and I'll be very surprised if the party turns to him or his brother.

[Princeliberty]

I think you 100% correct of the thinking of ego
maniac and Mr. Control Rendell.

However, this time Daschle and the national party
are desperate about finding vunerable Republicans
in 2004 so the national party may end up coming
in if Rendell can't find a strong candidate on
his own and since Rendell only wants someone
he can control that eliminates many of the
people who be the Democrats best bet.

But for Daschle if the Democrats suffer any
net loss, he is toast and the Democrats will
throw him aside for sure as their leader.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"However, the Democrats may be forced to
turn to Casey."

---

According to PoliticsPA.com, Casey is not interested in running for the Senate (not a good steppingstone for the governorship) and instead will run for (if I recall correctly) State Treasurer.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"In 2000, The RATS had a good shot to unseat Santorum with Ron Klink. However, the Philly liberals were disgusted with Klink's pro-2A and pro-life stands."

---

Klink's inability to raise money from liberal Democrats was only part of the reason why Santorum beat Klink by 6% even as Gore carried the state by 4.3%. Santorum won mostly because (i) he was better liked and (ii) Klink wasn't able to exploit his home-field advantage among Pittsburgh-area socially conservative Democrats because Santorum also had his home base in Pittsburgh and had attracted such voters for years.

Had Rendell not run such a strong campaign and had not thousands of Philly-area RINOs and even some real Republicans enroll as Democrats (Rendellicans), Bob Casey, Jr. would have won the RAT gubernatorial primary in 2002. I don't know if he could have beat Fisher, but he would have been halfway there.

[Princeliberty]

No way Casey would not have crushed Fisher.
In a general election Casey is the strongest guys
the Democrats could run, his problem
is getting past the liberal nutcases in
the Democrat party.

[Princeliberty]

Rendell winning may be a big boast to Republicans
in Penn. Rendell's control ego may get in the way
of the Democrats running the best candidates
in 2004 and 2006 for the Senate and by
2006 public probably going be ready to run
Rendell out of town.