GOP lawmaker (Mike Rogers-R) looking like a man on the make

Detroit Free Press ^ | 6/2/03 | Dawson Bell

[LdSentinal]

With the exception of L. Brooks Patterson's deft turns as a stand-up comedian, this year's Detroit Regional Chamber conference on Mackinac Island was, as expected, dominated by Democrats.

There was the feel-good Democrat: Gov. Jennifer Granholm, spreading fairy dust over throngs of rapt conference-goers. There was the edgy Democrat: Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, trading quips with Patterson, Oakland County's executive, and showing off the formidable political skills that got him elected (after spending the past three weeks at home, making people wonder why they allowed it to happen).

[Dan from Michigan]

Mike Rogers is my congressman and a good guy.

And although he's going to kill me if he sees me typing this, I think if he wants it, he has a shot even at the presidency someday.

He's won dem strongholds(City of Lansing) and also got 77% in my county(59% for Bush, 62% Posthumus). The conservative base(gunowners, business, pro-lifers) likes him. He's served in the military. He's also a former FBI agent and has a family business background. He beat a heavyweight dem in 2000 for the open seat(which Gore won before redistricting). He took about 68% of the vote in the last election against a dem that was so weak(he lost votes every time he spoke) that I could take him out. No one wanted to face him.

Personality wise, he's an excellent speaker, and at ease in a crowd. Once you get past the credentials and everything else, Congressman Mike's a regular guy. No pompous elitism whatsoever. Swing voters will back him. "This guy isn't the bogeyman. What is the dem talking about?".

I think he can give Stabusall or Jenny a run for their money in 06. Levin's up in 08 and will be 74(He's 68 now).

I hope he goes for it, and if he does, I'll be in his corner.

[fieldmarshaldj]

*ping*
Mike should probably take a run for the Senate and let Mr. Cox or Miss Land take a run at Jenny Grandstand.

[JohnnyZ]

NUGENT FOR GOVERNOR!

I also like Candice Miller for Senate.

Nick Smith is running too.

[Dan from Michigan]

Smith isn't my first choice.

[Dan from Michigan]

Most likely candidates

Rogers - For reasons above mentioned. Garcia(probably) will take Rogers spot, and we won't lose much there.
Candice Miller - Former Sec of State(and left it in MUCH better shape). She beat a 50 year dem incumbent. Currently in Congress - Highest vote getter in Michigan History. Even had more votes than 1998 John Engler. Won easily in 02 for Congress. If Rogers goes for one, I expect Miller to go after the other(although Jenny may get a pass from one of them in 06, and go for the open spot in 2010).
Mike Cox - Extremely hard working and a great campaigner. Beat a tough candidate for AG. Very organized campaign, comes from Wayne County. Could go for a judgeship, US attorney, or for Senate or Governor. If McCotter goes for statewide seat, Cox may go for that.
Terri Land - Also very hard working. The dems hung Butch Hollowell out to try a little bit, but Land ran of the best organized campaigns I've seen. It would not suprise me to see her run for Ehler's seat when he retires, or possibly go for governor or senate.

Pete Hoekstra - Good solid conservative congressman from West Michigan, although he's not well known out east.

Nick Smith - Moderate overall and does well in Calhoun County which has swung democrat recently.

Dems side
Bart Stupak - Pro-life. leans anti-gun, but sometimes votes right(he's from the UP), and always TALKS pro-gun. Very popular up north.
John Cherry - He'd be VERY tough to beat. A Dingell democrat from the Flint Subrubs. Current Lt Governor. I think he'd be as tough as Granholm to beat.
Mark Schauer - Sleeper candidate. SLICK. State senator from Battle Creek and could make a run for Nick Smith's seat.
Gilda Jacobs - Unfortunatly, she'll likely be in Congress unless a Warren Dem jumps in and wins in the primary. Very liberal, and a gun grabbing extremist. She's in a dem area and in a dem congressional district.

[Amish]

Mark Shauer has shaved his mustache so you know he's going for Nick Smith's vacant seat. His non-record (passed no bills during time in House) kept things competitive when he took the senate seat, but he'll run a tough race for Congress in 2004. I haven't seen a Republican star step forward yet, but with a BUSH top of ticket pull Shauer CAN BE BEAT.

[Dan from Michigan]

By the numbers, Schauer SHOULD be beat(I didn't know he shaved the stache, although it was obvious that was going to run), although he should have been beated by Mortimer as well.

District Map 7th District

Bush/Gore
Jackson County 61946 votes, Bush won by 3906, 52%
Calhoun County(All) - 55080, Gore won by 1021, 50%
Eaton County - 49272 votes, Bush won by 1592, 50%
Branch County - 15783 votes, Bush won by 2052, 55%
Hillsdale County - 17473 votes, Bush won by 3988, 60%
Lenawaee county - 40093 votes, Bush won by 2316, 52%
Washtenaw County(estimated) 61439 votes, Bush won by 76, 48%
(Does not include Ann Arbor City, Ypsi, Superior Township, Milan - may or may not include Ann Arbor or Pittsfield Townships - not sure - must more GOP if it doesn't)

This is going to be a tough race. About 51% for Bush in 2000 with a 12,900 vote edge. I think there's been only three really big coattails years for Michigan in the last 20. 84 Reagan. 86 Lucas(GOP was killed). 98 Engler(Dems were wiped out). I don't believe much in coattails. If Schauer outworks the GOP and has state party support, this will be a major fight, and Schauer was running ads even in Lansing for his senate race.

Lenawaee and Eaton split their tickets often. Lenawaee has a dem state rep. Eaton voted for Granholm and also Sue Tabor(what a contrast). I think Battle Creek splits their tickets alot as well.

GOP Candidates

Clark Bisbee - Leans anti-gun, and voted against Shall Issue CCW. Great on Business issues. I couldn't vote for him in a primary race, although I'd back him over Schauer. He's from Jackson City, and his state house district was held by a long time dem before he won the open seat.

Paul DeWeese - Recently moved to Eaton Rapids from nearby Williamston, although he's worked there as a doctor for 20+ years. Good guy and popular among moderates and social conservatives. Former state rep. Pro-life and pro-2a.

Gene DeRossett - State rep from Manchester. I met him twice and he seems like a good guy. Also pro-life and pro-2a. Most known for trying to repeal the helmet law. Won relection in a very difficult district in Wasthenaw county(includes Scio and possibly Ann Arbor Township).

Ann Norlander - Calhoun County clerk. Ran for Sec of State in 2002. Nice lady, although I don't know her stance on the issues very well. I've HEARD she was also conservative. Could make things interesing since she's from the same area as Schauer.

Two possible candidates are Joe Schwarz(disaster) and Frank Fitzgerald. I'll just say that I hope those two don't run. Schwarz makes Schauer look pro-gun, and Fitzgerald was one of the deciding committee votes on killing CCW back in 98.

By pure population and geography, I think it's Bisbee's race to win, and whoever gets the Lenawaee and Eaton voters. Hillsdale and Branch should counter Albion and SW Lansing for the major partisan areas.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Thanks for the rundown. That will be good to see a Hispanic Republican taking Rogers seat when he moves up. :-)

[MainstreamConservative]

Good rundown of Rogers. I always thought that he, along with Pete Hoekstra, would make a good candidate for US Senate in 2006.