Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

Center For Politics ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

[lepton]

He lost three of those states by a TOTAL of about 30,000 votes.

And they were challengeable. That he and his DIDN'T challenge them betrays the Dem-Gore argument that Bush would have done the same thing in Florida as Gore did betrays it for the lie it was.

[deport]

the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

---

After Eisenhower, the only elected Republican Presidents have been from CA or TX.... Nixon, Reagan & Bush, Bush

[GraniteStateConservative]

Yeah, a state where more than 7 in 10 adults (probably 8 in 10 voters) support Benson's veto of our bloated budget will go for Kerry. [/sarcasm]. Sabato is clueless.

People don't realize how significant Shaheen's loss last year was. It was almost 100% because of Bush's popularity and she was a Dem titan who didn't come close to beating a guy half the state didn't even really know. If that continues, Bush wins the state easily.

[AntiGuv]

Actually, I do. With relative peace and 4.0% GDP growth, Bush should win 48 or 49 states.

[AntiGuv]

For Gephardt he shifts West Virginia.

[lepton]

You missed the underlying assumption stated on the map, i.e., "assumes a highly competitive election." If the popular vote was tight, then given the proclivities of the various states, he's predicting the individual states.

Yep: If the election is close, then the results will be close.

[Deport Billary]

I expect Bush to do about 8 points better in the northeast, 4 points impovement in the midwest and maybe a +1 or +2 everywhere else.

[TomGuy]

the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

GWHB was a governor?

I was thinking GWB (Gov-TX) and RRegan (Gov-CA) when I typed that. GWHB seems about as memorable as one Gerald R. Ford.

[GraniteStateConservative]

History is actually more interesting than what you report.

Incumbent presidents running for reelection who faced no significant opposition on the party's New Hampshire ballot have never been defeated for a second term as President (also, as an aside, no incumbent president has ever lost the NH presidential primary). So, if no one steps up to the plate in November 2003 (the filing deadline for the NH primary), the general election is already decided in Bush's favor.

Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, won the primary with 98.9%, after facing no serious opposition.

Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, won the primary with 95.3%, after facing no serious opposition.

Richard M. Nixon in 1972, won the primary with 89.3%, after facing no serious opposition.

Gerald R. Ford in 1976, won the primary with 49.4%, after facing serious opposition from Ronald Reagan.

Jimmy Carter in 1980, won the primary with 47.1%, after facing serious opposition from Ted Kennedy.

Ronald Reagan in 1984, won the primary with 86.1%, after facing no serious opposition.

George H. W. Bush in 1992, won the primary with 53.2%, after facing serious opposition from Patrick Buchanan.

Bill Clinton in 1996, won the primary with 84.4%, after facing no serious opposition.

[lepton]

Washington has over 8% unemployment, and is likely to have close to 10% unemployment by Nov 2004. The bursting of the "New Economy" tech bubble has hit Washington even harder than California, and those jobs ain't coming back anytime soon - at least not to Washington. Finally, Boeing's Seattle operations are swiftly getting moved elsewhere, even aside from the fact that Boeing itself is struggling in its commercial manufacture departments.

Yes. From the sample of what I've been reading, the sentimental solution to the problems caused by the Enviro-Socialists is to soften the blow with more socialists...and people seem to be getting desparate to do so.

[Torie]

After a rather severe drop in your stock on this forum, you are roaring back sir, sort of like a raging bull. LOL. Myself, I am one of those steady boring value stocks, with a price that is consistently pedestrian.

[rhinohunter]

Splendid. Bush carries what he did last time, except for the home state of the Dem candidate if it was one Bush carried last time

It makes you wonder how a guy like Sabato is on TV making the big bucks when you or I could easily pull something better out of our butts at the drop of a hat.

Even if we give him the assumption that the election will be about 50-50 in the national popular vote ( which I don't ), he could at least have analyzed the trends of the close states. If the election is close, I could see us losing Florida and New Hampshire (both trending left for over 2 decades) but winning Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota (likewise trending right for the last 2 decades).

[GraniteStateConservative]

JR, do you have any thoughts as to why Edgar and Dunn and Rice have not bet on coattails and agreed to run?

[lepton]

I was thinking GWB (Gov-TX) and RRegan (Gov-CA) when I typed that. GWHB seems about as memorable as one Gerald R. Ford.

O.K. Good. I was thinking I'd had some sort of history meltdown. :)

[AntiGuv]

Heh! It's safe to say I make for a high-risk, high-return, high-volatility investment.. ;^) Guess ya just gotta know when to hold 'em & know when to bail out..

[AntiGuv]

IMHO, I think they recognize that Bush won't likely have coattails in their homestate of Washington. According to what I've seen from the local media, the 2002 election results are thought to have underscored that.

[AntiGuv]

Make that homestates of Washington & Illinois - I read that so fast I thought you were talking about three potential Murray challengers at first.

Regarding Edgar in particular, he apparently demanded a guarantee of funding levels from the NRSC that wasn't forthcoming, and so that evidently played the greater role in his decision.

I'm uncertain which Rice you're referring to? Do you mean Condoleezza Rice possibly running against Boxer? If so, I think she'd much rather be National Security Advisor and a frontrunner for the 2008 VP spot than risk it all on a highly competitive Senate challenge.

[Teacher317]

He's got the Senate GOP picking up 2 or 3 seats, and the House about even.

[LS]

That what it said in Sammon's book, "At Any Cost."

[Kuksool]

{Regarding Edgar in particular, he apparently demanded a guarantee of funding levels from the NRSC that wasn't forthcoming}

Yup. Jim Edgar demanded that the NRSC give him $3 million up front. In addition, Edgar demanded a spot on the Foreign Relations Committee should he win. Bill Frist and George Allen didn't want to make those type of promises without knowing how the other Senate races would turn out.