Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

Center For Politics ^

[Recovering_Democrat]

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?

[RedWing9]

Lieberman wins? Look at the map, 287 Lieberman to 258 Bush...

[GraniteStateConservative]

Do you think Bush supported Edgar's demands? He'd be a popular guy to top the ticket with in IL.

[Tall_Texan]

Zogby said the DUI report cost Bush 1 million votes (1% of the vote). Are you sure he said 1 million for the early call?

That's exactly why the Desperate Dems (tm) will trot out a Bush cocaine story the weekend of the 2004 election, even if it isn't true. That is, unless they can prove George spanked his daughters when they were young.

[PhiKapMom]

I don't buy Sabato's crystal ball! We were close in Minnesota and Wisconsin not to mention Iowa. Minnesota elected Norm Coleman and you cannot tell me that we don't stand an excellent chance of picking up Minnesota.

Graham will not put Florida in the win column for RATs. Jeb is popular and won be a landslide including clinton campaigning for McBride. Graham is not that popular in FL now (voted against tax cuts for one!) and there are things in his background that could torpedo him!

Just don't see this map as happening! Sabato is living in the past before 9/11 and a lot of people have changed since then. Not to mention the religious right will vote in greater numbers next time because of the chance of RATs appointing Supreme Court Justices. After the rulings recently, a lot of folks who stayed home will turn out for Bush!

[PhiKapMom]

You noticed! First thing that struck me was he had a replay of 2000! Not going to happen that way in 2004!

If the RATs nominate Dean or Kerry, they are doomed in flyover country including States that barely went for Gore some by a few thousand votes. Flyover country will not vote for someone from New England in large enough numbers to put the State in the RAT column.

[PhiKapMom]

LIEberman isn't even going to win his own party's nomination! He opened an office in OKC and hired someone from IL to run it -- that went over in OKC like a lead balloon with the RATs but OK Republicans are enjoying it!

[Kuksool]

I don't know whether Bush supported or opposed Edgar's demands. Yes, Edgar is the only person who could keep the IL Senate seat in the GOP column in 2004. However, since he decided not to run, the IL GOP is settling with Chicago businessman Jack Ryan, the ex-husband of "Boston Public" star Jeri Lynn Ryan. I doubt he will win the Senate seat. In fact, I doubt Bush will be able to carry Illinois in 2004. Chicago is just to big to overcome. Plus, plenty of Downstate social conservatives believe what ever the labor unions tell them.

[Tall_Texan]

The key to the whole thing will be how massive the Democrat vote fraud machine is in 2004. That's what worries me. The Rats have already proved they will stop at nothing to steal an election. Believe me, they are desperate as hell.

[HamiltonJay]

Doubt it will be that close personally.

If the economy stays depresessed it might wind up that close, but if it continues to move up, which it does appear to be doing, it won't be that close.

However, as long as Bush wins, really doesn't matter how close it is anyway.

[HamiltonJay]

PA is an odd place, particularly western PA. Pittsburgh is on verge of bankruptcy thanks to perpetual democratic administrations and policies, yet somehow they'll keep pulling that D lever... probably find a way to spin the areas problems on the Administration too...

Though most people in this area are very conservative politically when push comes to shove, far too many union hacks and children of union hacks to recognize just which party represents their general world view and they keep throwing that D lever. And thanks to the slow economy getting an influx of NYC exodus lately as well.

[PhiKapMom]

The biggest difference between 2000 and 2004 is that Republicans control DOJ! In 2000 when we had voter fraud, Reno's DOJ refused to have any lawyers investigate or even be there in areas that had large voter fraud in previous elections.

In 2002, the voter fraud was cut way back because of some of the new rules that were implemented and the fact in heavy voter fraud areas US Attorneys were active to combat the fraud. Their presence can do wonders!

Believe that DOJ will be prepared and that RNC will also be asking lawyers around the Country to become poll watchers. I never had been involved in princinct level work but I was asked to be Vice Chair of our precinct to keep an eye on it in 2004 which BTW has never had any trouble.

A lot of changes have been made and were dry run in 2002 and from most places results were positive that some of the problems of 2000 were fixed.

BTW, thanks to Reno taking after McBride and the RATs for doublecrossing her in 2002, we found how they were planning to fraud the Florida election in the Fall -- Reno tipped it all by being mad when the clintons chose to go with McBride instead of her against Jeb.

Best thing for all of us to do is become active in your local precincts which gives you the right to be there on election day as an observer!

[Joy Angela]

Great photos and Freeper report about Bush Visit to
California on Friday!!!!

See link and read posts 72 and beyond for the Great News!!

Wish I'd been there!

Freepers Bush to visit L.A. FRIDAY (6/27):
Join Ted Hayes & FR for pro-USA rally:
"Thank GOD it?s W!" - 5 pm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/933686/posts?page=79

[Kenny Bunk]

Paleo, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Michigan and very possibly California, among others, wound up in the Gore column through blatant fraud.

If there is a a concerted anti-fraud effort, some of the states projected for the Democrats very possibly could go Bush, and some of those "marked tight but leaning Democrat."

[only1percent]

With relative peace and 4.0% GDP growth, Bush should win 48 or 49 states.

It's not just relative peace and GDP growth. It's got to be clear victories, and obvious, tangible security and improvement in the job markets.

There is a tremendous amount of fear out there in all the wrong places -- fear of terrorism of course, but also fear the middle class, well-established family men and women who are core Bush voters are worrying about their jobs in ways that they never were in past recessions. There isn't a college-educated person in America who doesn't have at least one good friend or family member, him/herself also college educated with a good profession, who's suffered being out of work for six months, a year or longer. I don't know many people who don't have half an eye on Monster.com for fear of layoffs, and this includes people who were in jobs that not to long ago were thought of as jobs for life. That fear is dangerous for us.

I mean, someone can be as conservative as the day is long -- but if he thinks voting for Dean or Kerrey could save him from exchanging his nice office with a view for a smock and register at Target, he'd do it.

[marajade]

Weren't there enough votes for Buchanan to cause Bush to lose Iowa? Buchanan won't be there next time...

[The Old Hoosier]

HOw stupid. That's just the 2000 map.

Bush will win Minnesota this time.