You seem to be mistaking slow reflexes on Ivan's part for deal-making on both parties' parts.
Russia is a very paranoid country when it comes to countries invading her on any level, thus she will react without restraint.(I could hear the cry now 'for the sake of your homeland we must defeat the invaders and remember the last time we won against the last invaders, the Nazis, we shall not surrender'[or something to that effect].) However, the two have concluded the Good Neighborly and Friendship treaty on 7-16-01 and a whole host of talks ranging from low, mid, and high level officials on both countries soils.
It's called "international relations" because it consists of sovereign nations trying to f*** each other.
Otherwise, the nukes would have flown long before over this when China was weaker.
Ivan always calculates the likely gain against the likely loss.
China can do a s**tload of damage to European Russia. Are a few tens, hundreds, even a few thousand illegal immigrants worth starting a nuclear war over, given the likely consequences?
Now she grows in tech and heavy industry on a scale not seen in some time.
Not to mention Russia's willingness to give a certain amount of tech as well fabrication abilities for components of Chinas own modern weapon systems. The only question so far is what is Russia getting out of the deal?
Hard currency. But that ain't enough to deal with the likely consequences.
They may yet regret this decision. Remember, on June 22, 1941, trainloads of Russian goods rolled west into the Greater German Reich minutes before Operation Barbarossa got underway.
They both supply support for the DPRK which is a major thorn in our side.
A "major thorn?"
Try "an annoying chihuahua."
Should war occur here and we are taken off guard,
A very BIG "if" that is unlikely to happen, except in the context of Joe Citizen getting surprised by a US invasion of North Korea.
then China has the most to gain and by extension of the region so does Russia though to a lesser extent.
How so?
At the moment the two countries have far more to gain by working together rather than in competition or outright hostility.
That can easily change. China is Enron with nukes. If their cashflow goes south, they might decide to try to establish the "Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" by kicking the round-eye barbarians out of Siberia.
After all, if America takes it on the chin in this region and possibly others, then we loss our power base which creates a power vacuum.
OK, China has to actually engineer the loss of out power base.
Kind of how you make Kodiak Bear stew. All you have to do is bag yourself a Kodiak Bear. Of course, to do that, all you have to do is make sure (a) you're alive and (b) the bear is dead. Of course...that last part is easy to say, but rather challenging to actually DO.
So who has the ability to fill this power vacuum?
Japan and India come to mind.
The only other countries that can are China and Russia.
Russia is in no shape to do it. That leaves China--which is, as I've observed, Enron with nukes.
And nothing brings two enemies together than the common hatred of another enemy.
And nothing divides them more quickly than the question of "is he really going to back this potentially suicidal move, or is he just going to stab me in the back?"
Should they succeed in this endeavor, no doubt the two would return to the old view as each being the enemy since they no longer have to worry about us.
Step #1 in Kodiak Bear Stew: catch the bear.
Insight on the News - Fair Comment
Issue: 07/22/03