We only see the military actions, the arrests of cells, and the announcements of frozen bank accounts.
We do NOT see the intelligence reports, the private diplomatic communiques, the discussions off-camera between Blair and Bush at Camp David, etc.
Given that there is so much we don't know, I can only try to deduce events from the public perormances, and this, of course, is an imperfect way to draw conclusions about what's going on.
The behavior of the Fench over the last year has really sent some red flags up, as far as I am concerned. We will just have to wait and see what surfaces, I guess.