[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[deport]

It's still early .... I'd even question the valitiy of this poll as we don't the internals.

[Consort]

I thought Clinton won because Bush broke his no new taxes pledge.

No. It was the voters fault, you know, the voters who actually voted for Clinton, the voters who voted for Perot, the voters who voted for other Third Party candidates, the voters who didn't vote for Bush, the voters who didn't vote at all....it was the voters....its' always the voters. If it isn't the voters then, who puts the politicians in office?

[deport]

Field Poll on the CA Gov race.

[grania]

If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected. Somehow, I don't think they're really conservatives

Do you think Ahhhhnald is a "real conservative"? Or is he just a liberal Democrat playing Republican to get elected?

I don't understand why socially Conservative Republicans would want a "victory" in this. It will just increase the chances on the "Repulicans" not even needing social conservatives in the future in order to win.

All they'll have to do is find rich, charming corporate magnates who could care less about the values of the former base of the Republican Party.

What do you suppose the odds are that GWB is going to push to get the two versions of the PBA resolved and signed? Or is he just going to focus on ways to achieve "victory" in California?

[patriciaruth]

Simon reportedly went ballistic last week

Simon's an idiot. He got one vote from me and will never get another.

[vbmoneyspender]

You can blame whomever you want, but if Bush, Senior hadn't broken his no new taxes pledge, Clinton never would have gotten elected.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Bustamante = Dufus - 40 IQ points. Vote for Arnold (or better yet, McClintock!).

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"What do you suppose the odds are that GWB is going to push to get the two versions of the PBA resolved and signed? Or is he just going to focus on ways to achieve "victory" in California?"

Bush is a winner. More sensible people prefer victory over defeat. What I call Arnold is a winner. What they'll call McClintock and Simon (again) is LOSER.

[patriciaruth]

Bustamante looks really low rent, like he's in the Mexican mafia. Boy, am I glad I'm not a Democrat.

[Charles Henrickson]

Has anyone considered that Large Breasts and Arnold could end up splitting the Rat vote between them?

Is this who you're talking about?

How many of these things are inflated?

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Simon reportedly went ballistic last week when Republican leaders tried to talk to him about leaving the race.

McClintock also is staying put."

First of all, Simon isn't even a real conservative. He had a sudden change of heart when he decided to run last year. McClinock is clearly 3rd tier. He's basically just noise. But as far as defeating democrats, every vote counts.

[hayburner]

Ditto - good analysis.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"Schwarzenegger has made it safe for Democrats to support him, while not making a single policy pronouncement. No other candidate could ever accomplish that."

You're exactly right. Who else could get Rob Lowe and George Shultz on the same team. Screw the ideology right now. Once he's in office we can scurry for his ear. Conservatives are a lot more likely to get Arnolds ear than Cruz's ear.

I think McClintock is 3rd string, but we'll need someone to throw at Bboxer.

[Ichneumon]

Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

Bad logic: You're presuming that if those candidates drop out, every single person who prefered them over Arnold would invariably continue to vote, and vote unanimously for Arnold. Voting dynamics are a lot more complicated than that.

It is pretty likely it would help him, but assuming that he would therefore get the full "44%" is highly unlikely.

If the "stupid party" remains true to form: Bustamante - 25% = winner Schwarzenegger = 22% McClintock = 9% Simon = 8%

This is an even shakier assumption. If all the Republicans stay in the race, it's nearly a certainty that come voting day, a considerable number of backers of the "minor" candidates will throw their votes to whichever Republican is in the lead (Arnold, unless he implodes), in order to avoid exactly the kind of loss you're fearing. You're not the only person who can see the obvious, you know.

[LaraCroft]

If Arnold was really concerned about the stae HE would pull out and then an adult who can DO the job, McClintock would get most of his votes too.. then the state will actually be saved.

Everyone is ballyhooing about having any republican in office, no matter how offensive they are, but I can assure you, next election cycle if the Pubbie in office hasn't changed things dramatically, then it will be years and years more democrats. The ONLY hope is to put a (R) in who can change things around and then we have the next few elections in the bag.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"If Gerry Parsky and Carl Rove were real Republicans, they wouldn't have run Ahnold Schwartznegger."

Arnold is running Arnold. Rove is a winner. Get over it.

[madprof98]

This is excellent news. Arnold is in the same camp as his advisors Warren Buffet and Rob Lowe (hard as it is to imagine Rob Lowe as an advisor). I am astonished at how many people here think that makes him a great GOP candidate. Getting rid of this type of Republican is good news for everyone who remembers Nelson Rockefeller as the archetype of his party.

[afuturegovernor]

How to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, page 1.

The California GOP is doing everything it can to replace an ultra-unpopular Demcratic governor with a liberal Hispanic Democratic Lt. Governor. That way it will be even harder to defeat the Democrats in 2006.

All of Darrel Issa's money and the time of hundreds of volunteers to re-call Gray Davis could go to strengthen the Democratic Party's hold on California and beat the dead horse of California's Republican Party.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

"NO, maybe Arnold needs to withdraw instead of McClintock pulling out."

Maybe monkey's will fly out of your butt. No wonder there are such losers in the conservative camp. Look at your twisted logic. Arnold can win, McClintock cant. The bottom line is getting rid of a democrat. If you're not for that, than you're against that goal.

[DoctorZIn]