The Future of Drones [FR EXCLUSIVE! SCCOP!]

Various ^ | 8/16/2003 | Southack

[Southack]

Although unheralded by the mainstream press (of whose members few would even be capable of recognizing the importance of such an event), a few American civilians were celebrating their tiny model airplane's 1,821 mile flight this week as if Christmas had arrived early.

 

Their tiny TAM-5, equipped with a satellite phone, computer, and GPS successfully guided itself from North America to Europe.

 

There was no pilot aboard.

 

http://tam.plannet21.com/

 

Considering the successes of large-scale, multi-million Dollar drones in the War on Terror (e.g. killing high-ranking Taliban with a hellfire missile in Afghanistan and killing high-ranking al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen with a similar weapon launched from yet another unmanned drone), it is worth noting that these civilians built an unmanned drone for the Scrooge-like sum of mere thousands of Dollars, and then flew it across the entire Atlantic ocean on six Dollars worth of gasoline to within 35 feet of its designated target area.

 

When one examines the history of self-guided drones (some included below from various sources), it becomes clear that drone technology is becoming either cheaper to build, more accurate, and/or with greater range each year.

 

So while we may be flying a half dozen pricey, unmanned military drones to patrol our borders in places like Florida and Arizona today, and while we are flying a few dozen such drones over more hostile territory in the Middle East and Asia this year, it won't take yet another rocket scientist to figure out that in the future, super-cheap drones are going to be swarming over battlefields in quantities that may very well number into the hundreds of thousands at a time.

 

Moreover, we have to come to grips with the fact that mere civilians can build these inexpensive drones, as well as that they have now been proven to be able to fly non-stop across entire oceans.

 

The particular drone in question, the TAM-5, is actually a more complicated version than necessary.  Rather than write the software needed to self-guide this particular craft internally, someone else may opt to simply pilot it via its satellite telephone link and remote computer instructions, much in the same way that countless model aircraft are already radio controlled today.

 

What military won't be enticed to operate such simple, stealthy craft that cost so little and fly so far, yet that could relay back inexpensive digital video for intelligence gathering purposes (not to forget the additional potential for either arming the craft directly, or to use the craft to mark a target via laser or GPS coordinates)?!

 

This is the future of drones.  Inexpensive civilian versions of which have already flown themselves across the Atlantic Ocean on $6 worth of gas.

 

And while the mainstream media won't be clever enough to see any significance in this event, don't make the mistake of thinking that various military and terrorist organizations will be so dull.

 

Likewise, it shouldn't surprise anyone to see various Patriot organizations flying such craft across Cuba, Iran, and North Korea...dropping pro-freedom leaflets and causing major headaches for the tyrants in power in those regions.

 

And who knows, if the media is ever barred from some celebrity's outdoor wedding one day, even the press may see fit to operate a couple of these drones in order to beam back low quality [pun intended] live video feeds.

 

---

TAM-5's North American Launch

 

Tam 5 where it landed at Mannin Beach, Ireland

Photo courtesy of Ronan Coyne

 

By the late 1930s, Goddard grew troubled. He had noticed long before that of all the countries that showed an interest in rocketry, Germany showed the most. Now and then, German engineers would contact Goddard with a technical question or two, and he would casually respond. But in 1939 the Germans suddenly fell silent. With a growing concern over what might be afoot in the Reich, Goddard paid a call on Army officials in Washington and brought along some films of his various liquid-fueled Nell rockets. He let the generals watch a few of the launches in silence, then turned to them. "We could slant it a little," he said simply, "and do some damage." The officers smiled benignly at the missile man, thanked him for his time and sent him on his way. The missile man, however, apparently knew what he was talking about. Five years later, the first of Germany's murderous V-2 rockets blasted off for London. By 1945, more than 1,100 of them had rained down on the ruined city.

Rebuffed by the Army, Goddard spent World War II on sabbatical from rocketry, designing experimental airplane engines for the Navy. When the war ended, he quickly returned to his preferred work. As his first order of business, he hoped to get his hands on a captured V-2. From what he had heard, the missiles sounded disturbingly like his more peaceable Nells. Goddard's trusting exchanges with German scientists had given Berlin at least a glimpse into what he was designing. What's more, by 1945 he had filed more than 200 patents, all of which were available for inspection. When a captured German scientist was asked about the origin of the V-2, he was said to have responded, "Why don't you ask your own Dr. Goddard? He knows better than any of us." When some V-2s finally made their way to the U.S. and Goddard had a chance to autopsy one, he instantly recognized his own handiwork. "Isn't this your rocket?" an assistant asked as they poked around its innards. "It seems to be," Goddard replied flatly.

Goddard accepted paternity of his bastard V-2, and that, as it turned out, was the last rocket he fathered while alive. In 1945 he was found to have throat cancer, and before the year was out, he was dead. His technological spawn, however, did not stop. American scientists worked alongside emigre German scientists to incorporate Goddard's innovations into the V-2, turning the killer missile into the Redstone, which put the first Americans into space. The Redstone led directly to the Saturn moon rockets, and indirectly to virtually every other rocket the U.S. has ever flown.

Though Goddard never saw a bit of it, credit would be given him, and--more important to a man who so disdained the press--amends would be made. After Apollo 11 lifted off en route to humanity's first moon landing, The New York Times took a bemused backward glance at a tart little editorial it had published 49 years before. "Further investigation and experimentation," said the paper in 1969, "have confirmed the findings of Isaac Newton in the 17th century, and it is now definitely established that a rocket can function in a vacuum as well as in an atmosphere. The Times regrets the error." The grim Professor Goddard might not have appreciated the humor, but he would almost certainly have accepted the apology.

CULVER PICTURES

BORN Oct. 5, 1882, in Worcester, Mass.

1908 Begins studying physics at Clark University

1915 Proves that rocket engines can produce thrust in a vacuum

1926 Launches the first liquid-fueled rocket to an altitude of 41 ft.

1930 Begins working in Roswell, N.Mex; develops supersonic and multi-stage rockets and fin-guided steering

1945 Dies at age 62, holding 214 patents

V-1 'Buzz Bomb'

DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW WEAPON

In June 1944, the German army began the use of what would be a very unique, very deadly, and historical weapon called the V1. The 'V' stood for Vergeltungswaffe which meant "vengeance weapon." Better known to Londoners as the "Buzz Bombs" or "doodlebugs," these flying bombs made a very distinct sound as they flew overhead at low altitude, before the timing mechanisms expired, and the bomb fell to earth, and exploded.

 

A US Navy's JB-2 called the LTV-A-1, ready for launch from a submarine (November, 1944)

In July 1944, Northrop received a contract to develop the JB-1 turbojet-powered flying bomb under project MX-543. Northrop designed a flying-wing aircraft with two General Electric B1 turbojets in the center section, and two 900 kg (2000 lb) general purpose bombs in enclosed "bomb containers" in the wing roots. To test the aerodynamics of the design, one JB-1 was completed as a manned unpowered glider, which was first flown in August 1944.

 

Dragon-Eye battlefield drone

 

 

Predator  Long-endurance, Hellfire-armed (not shown) battlefield drone

 

 

Global Hawk Earth-navigating drone (900KG payload, 14,000 nautical mile range)

[Squantos]

A misspent youth shooting trap and skeet might come in handy ............practiced many years for such by dove hunting whenever possible.

Pull !

Stay Safe !

[Travis McGee]

I don't know, I think at their effective altitudes they are basically invisible.

[ZviTheWise]

Comments:
-- Actually, I think Sperry was working on an unmanned drone bomb before the end of WW1, It was very clever, and worked, but the guidance technology available was just too crude.
-- Yes, smart cheap drones will start popping up in all sorts of countries, frindly and not. It may prove that the best way to bring down a Global Hawk is with a smart model airplane.

[wardaddy]

Very interesting technology....already proven to have some practical uses and bound to keep on evolving.

TM, have a nice trip.

Southack, do you have experience in tower farming? I have very little but it appears less profitable than in the early -mid 90s when the cellular folks were really booming.

[Southack]

"Yes, smart cheap drones will start popping up in all sorts of countries..."

It won't just be in countries, but also with individuals, corporations, and various groups.

Consider that I started off this thread by showing that a civilian just built a cheap drone that has now flown across the entire Atlantic Ocean.

Now imagine the most radical political groups in every country, all using this technology to further their causes in far away places.

For $6 worth of gas...

[Southack]

The closest that I've come to tower farming is watching my CPA sign a $110,000.00 contract this year to lease 100 square feet of his lakehouse property for a single tower in rural America.

I've got a buddy who puts the towers up for a living for AWE, and he tells me that it isn't nearly as lucrative as it once was, for whatever that's worth.

[bets]

Colorado Springs Air Force Academy - all I ever see fly out of there are remote controlled gliders....or are they? Maybe what I've been seeing are drones.

[Travis McGee]

It may prove that the best way to bring down a Global Hawk is with a smart model airplane.

Smart. Very smart. It won't take a supersonic SAM missile, just a somewhat faster drone of your own with a seeker set to the GlobalHawk's freqs.

[Travis McGee]

Hi WD, I'll be off radar until the 24th, and then I'll start mailing out all the books.

BTW, is anybody in TN already doing "Big Box" delivery storage? I saw them in Baltimore called "Door To Door Storage."

[wardaddy]

is that 110K a 99 year lease?

I get calls occasionally but it appears that it might bring in around 2-400 a month and I have to supply the dry room. It's ok, but I remember when guys were getting 1200-1500 a month.

[wardaddy]

Yes ...we have PODS here....mostly used by folks remodeling or adding on.

[Southack]

He got paid $110k up front for a 20 year lease. All that he had to do was to provide the locations for the survey stakes to verify that it was really his property.

The rule of thumb being that whatever they offer you first is vastly below what they will pay in the end, if you are friendly and cooperative with them, anyway (they don't like the trouble-makers).

[gitmo]

use one of these to run drugs. Sounds much easier than having some guy swallow a condom and try to make it through a comercial flight. Just load a couple of pounds of pure heroin on one of these puppies and let her rip.

That's what I was thinking. It's cheaper, safer, and more difficult to intercept. Of course, the next step will be pirates hacking into the signals and diverting the payload to their back yard.

[wardaddy]

oh I'm friendly and cooperative...lol....I have over 1000 tenants at times...imagine the fun I have...lol

one earns their money in self storage.....and car washes too.

that's what I get for being a bottom feeder.

[Darksheare]

Thanks for the ping.
Not much to add, it's pretty much all been gone over.
The potential for this tech to either protect, assist and make life easier or to kill is great.
It can go either way.
You already mentioned that.
A small home built (basically) drone flying the Atlantic and landing within 35 foot of it's target... that's a huge accomplishment.
I didn't catch what the TAM-5's payload capacity was.
Not sure if it was mentioned at all.
I'm sure others have thought of that as well, and are looking into that as we speak.

[Southack]

Actually, you could build the entire frame of the TAM-5 out of plastique.

She flies for 2,000 miles and then BOOM!

[Darksheare]

In effect, it IS the payload..
There's a happy thought!

And with a 35 foot CEP, it's whole frame basically a bomb.. you could do some damage with it.
The future of unmanned drones really is going to be relatively cheap but high tech. Satellite remote linking and control with autonomous backup. I'm betting that the bad guys have more than an eye on this sort of thing.
I hope the right people have their eyes on this and are keeping an eye on the builders. (Them getting kidnapped would be a huge black eye for us.)

[King Prout]

we make the repercussions too costly for even those lunatics to consider.

[gaijin]

marking.

[null and void]

we make the repercussions too costly for even those lunatics to consider.

Gonna take away their virgins? How?