Gibbons says he could beat Democrat Reid in Nevada Senate race

AP ^ | Associated Press | SCOTT SONNER

[fieldmarshaldj]

"CA - Forget me NOT! Tom McClintock will have good name recognition by then. AND, if Rnold is in the guber mansion, he'll pull Republicans to the polls. If Busty's there instead, the state will be screwed worse so voters will be irate and running to the polls. Aither way, CA-'04 will have massive non-Democrat voter turnout which makes defeating Boxer, who is weak anyhow, all the more possible."

McClintock needs to be Governor, as he is far more intimately knowledgeable of the Sacramento scene. If Ah-nold is dropped on the state, he'll Welderize the party and do for the Senate race next year what Ole Billy did to Mitt against Ah-nie's Unky Teddy.

"SD - Well it certainly won't be leadfoot Janklow. South Dakotans better first be looking for someone to replace him in the House. Thune?"

Thune needs to get his butt in the race.

"GA - I like Herman Cain. Plenty of his own money, and plenty of conservative bible-belt blacks in that state to come out and vote for him."

Right on.

"IN - can Marvin Scott defeat Bayh? Hoosier state is pretty solid Republican. How popular can Byebye be?"

Marv has been treated like the skunk at the garden party by the IN GOP. This man SHOULD be the Congressman from Indianapolis, but they gave him no $$ in '94 when he came within a few points of joining J.C. Watts and Gary Franks in the House. He will NOT beat Bayh. As was mentioned, Dan Quayle needs to get his butt back to Indy and leave Arizona, the dumbest move he ever made based on poor advice by the late President Nixon.

"MD - Marbara Mikulski IS beatable. I know Michael Steele says he isn't running, but the Repubs are foolish for not fielding even a half decent candidate for this race."

Steele wants to be Governor, so no Senate races in his future for now. Some talk of luring Wayne Curry, another semi-"moderate" African-American Democrat, to switch parties and run. It would be a major embarrassment for the 'Rats if he ran.

"NY - can Michael Benjamin beat Schumer the tumor? Schumer didn't win by much last time and is a chief obstructionist of judicial nominees (some of whom happen to be hispanic, black, and women)."

Unless we can get a name candidate, this race will be a blowout for Sen. Putzhead.

[Impy]

Dick Nixon told Quayle to go to Arizona? Why?

Was it supposed to be like when Nixon went to New York?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Nixon told Quayle to go to Arizona to start his run for the Presidency (ostensibly building two bases of support -- the midwest and the southwest). He told him not to make the mistake Nixon made in '62 running for Governor. But this was a flawed piece of advice. In '96 there was an open race for IN Governor (unlike CA '62 where Pat Brown stood in the way) and Quayle would've won it in a cakewalk and would've had the opportunity to demonstrate he could function effectively as a Chief Executive. As an added bonus, his wife Marilyn, could've run for the Senate in '98 against Bayh. She surely would've done better than the horrid Fort Wayne liberal RINO Mayor Paul Helmke.

[ken5050]

Pretty good analysis..a few points for your consideration, if I might:

1. If Breaux retires, expect Dona Brazile to announce..she'd be tough to beat..and she's been positioning herself in case the seat opens up..that's why she declined several offers to run Dem presidential campaigns....I happen to think Breaux will retire, BTW..

2. Alaska won't be close....W at the top of the ticket, and ALL the Dems in the Senate opposed to ANWR drilling...Lisa will be able to make the point that Alaska gains nothing from electing a Dem to the Senate, and besides with W getting 60% of the vote....man, that's a powerful lot of ticket splitting that would be needed..

3. Cal may be a surprise...a couple of reasons..the recall thing is a tsunami..but no one has yet figured out the direction of the tidal wave....if Davis quits...as I think he'll be forced to do..then Boxer will be the first Dem statewide to face the voters..she could catch a lot of the blame for what the dems have done to Cal...also..there's the possible "westcoast " effect int he election...if it's Bush v. Dean, for example..the race could well be decided around 10pm est....way before the Cal polls close, and the early exit polls are gona leak all over the net...thus, a lot of Cal dems could decide to saty home and not bother...it could be enough to cost Boxer her seat...

[Kevin Curry]

If the libertarians don't some to the resuce of Reid, Gibbons could be a winner.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Pubbie, these are my comments to your Senate-race handicaps:

"CA - Forget about it."

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I disagree, we can win this thing. Boxer is too liberal even by CA standards, and if Rosario Marin can get even 35% of the Hispanic vote, she will win.


"Wa - Tossup/Leaning Slightly Democrat. Usually a Republican from Eastern Washington couldn't win a statewide election in Washington, but Usama bin Murray is a very weak candidate."

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Agreed. While I don't think we should underestimate Nethercutt, he does have a bit of an uphill climb.


"NV - If Gibbons runs (I think he will), he will win, because Jimbo will blowout Reid in Washoe. If he doesn't, the GOP is toast there."

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You're probably right on both counts.


"SD - Thune will win if he runs."

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From your lips to God's ears. And we need Thune to run; otherwise Daschle will coast to reelection.


"ND - Leans slightly Republican if Brown runs. Dale Brown looks like he will finally take the plunge and run against Byron. Ed Schafer may have recruited a very strong candidate in Brown. AuH2ORepublican has told me that Brown is well known and liked in ND and can raise a good amount of money."

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Whoa, whoa, whoa. I did say that Dale Brown is a local boy he made good and is well known in the state, and that he has the connections to raise big money, but I don't think it would be Brown's race to lose if he runs. Dorgan would still be the frontrunner, although I think Brown could pull it off because of the many disadvantages faced by Dorgan for the first time (which I described in the Dale Brown thread).

"NC - Leans strongly to a Burr win whether or not Edwards decides to run for Senate again (I don't think he will)."

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I think Edwards will run, but I agree that it leans relatively strongly to Burr.


"SC - DeMint should win the nomination and he'll defeat Inez Tenenbaum thanks to a hefty Bush bounce."

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I hope DeMint does get the nomination, and if he does he should win regardless of how large Bush's coattails are. But the coattails will help him win comfortably.


"GA - I like Mac Collins to win the primary and take it all in Georgia."

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Well, I like Herman Cain to win the primary and the general. But if Mac wins the primary, I also agree he'd win in November. Our problem is the possibility of pro-abort Johnny Isakson buying the GOP nomination and getting beat by a moderate RAT because Isakson can't carry the conservative Dem South Georgia counties that gave Perdue and Chambliss the victory in 2002.


"FL - Leans Republican. I am a proponent of Daniel Webster, but Unless conservatives, like McCollum, drop out, Foley will win the primary. But I think Foley would be a good candidate, not as good as Webster, but I think he can pull it off."

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I'm afraid you're right. There's no run-off in Georgia, so we need to have just one conservative out there. And I also like Webster, and so, allegedly, does President Bush So we need both McCollum and Byrd to drop out, and to convince Weldon not to get in. If Foley gets the nomination, I'm afraid he'd lose to Penelas or Boyd, although he should beat the more liberal Deutsch or Hastings.


"AR - I don't know what Huckabee is doing waiting so long to make up his mind. I don't think he'll run, but that's ok because Asa Hutchinson is the White House favorite to take down Blanche Lincoln; and Asa has said publicly that it would be very hard for him to say no if the WH asks him to run. The sooner Huckabee makes up his mind, the sooner Asa can jump in."

---

I agree, Asa is the man. I'm not sure Huckabee could pull it off.


"IL - Leans Democrat. Jack Ryan will win the primary and will probably lose the election."

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It's too early to write off Jack Ryan, especially since we don't know who the RAT nominee will be. If Hull or Pappas or Chico get the nomination, it would be Ryan's race to lose. If Obama gets the nod, it would be tougher for Jack, but I think he'd be a slight favorite. His toughest race would come against Hynes, but even then he'd have a good shot of winning. I don't know if Ryan will get 75% of the female vote (as JohnnyZ insists), but I'm certain his looks will help him do much better than if he looked like, say, Dennis Kucinich.


"WI - If Michels wins the nomination, Leans Republican. Tim Michels has the potential to be 2004's Saxby Chambliss, ie an candidate that comes out of nowhere and takes down a heavily favored incumbent."

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I hope you're right. While Feingold is vulnerable because he's too far left for Wisconsin, Michels will have his work cut out for him.


"Alaska - Safe Republican. George Allen and Rove are hell bent to prevent any primary challenge to Murkowski. This will allow Murkowski to spend all of her time to hit Knowles over the head with the only argument that Murkowski needs: Voting for a Democrat Senator will risk giving the Senate back to the Democrats and thus ensure that ANWAR will never be oppened to drilling."

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First of all, if a conservative in Alaska wants to run in the primary, there's nothing Allen or Rove or even President Bush could do to prevent him or her. Second, Knowles is not someone who should be taken lightly. While I agree that Murkowski should use the ANWR argument as much as possible, it may not work because (i) few people believe that the RATs can retake the Senate, even if the win AK, (ii) having a GOP Senate and 2 AK Republicans in it has not been enough to approve ANWR exploration, and (iii) Knowles will surely argue that, as a Democrat, he may be able to sway a couple of RATs to his side, just as Senator Stephens could do with Republicans, and get the 50 votes for passage. So I think Murkowski will survive the primary and go on to beat Knowles by like 52%-43%, but not before some scares along the way.


"LA - The Democrats had better pray to GOD that Breaux doesn't retire because there will be a mighty Bush Bounce all across the South and especially in LA."

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If Breaux retires, the seat will most definitely lean Republican. But if Chris John runs for the RATs, it won't be a slam dunk regardless of who our candidate is (especially with the recent history of sour grapes among Republican primary losers).


Pubbie, you forgot to mention PA. I think Toomey has a good shot of retiring Specter in the primary, and then defeating Hoeffel (or whoever) in the general. Hoeffel's gun-grabbing record won't help him any in blue-collar Dem areas.

And in NY, we will take out Schumer if Rudy runs. If Rudy doesn't run, it will not even be close. It's that simple. Run, Rudy, run!

Can someone tell me why NOBODY wants to challenge Ron Wyden in Oregon? Sure, he's a popular incumbent, but he's also a Portland liberal in a state that Bush will almost certainly carry in 2004.

Maryland and Connecticut are pretty much hopeless, and my preference would be to convince RINO Congressmen Gilchrest and Shays to run in their respective states. They would have as good a chance as anyone to defeat the ultraliberal incumbents, Mikulski and Dodd, but more importantly it would get them the hell out of the House and allow us to elect conservatives in their districts (Gilchrest's district (as redrawn in 2002) is ridiculously Republican, and Shays' district is the most Republican in Connecticut).

[JohnnyZ]

I don't know if Ryan will get 75% of the female vote (as JohnnyZ insists),

At LEAST. :)

I'm very bullish on Jack Ryan for senate. Solid financial and personal foundations with high growth potential and expectations of high dividends when he's elected. His election will be a lesson for conservatives across the country that with hard work, a positive attitude, and commitment to living your ideals you can make the grade when the electoral test comes.

[Pubbie]

"Pubbie, you forgot to mention PA. I think Toomey has a good shot of retiring Specter in the primary, and then defeating Hoeffel (or whoever) in the general. Hoeffel's gun-grabbing record won't help him any in blue-collar Dem areas."

Yes, Toomey should be able to win the primary against SphinkDer, and I'll bet he goes on to take down the very liberal Hoeffel.

[ImphClinton]

I hope he runs.

I would love to see Reed unseated.

[Pubbie]

The GOP party leaders in Nevada think he's going to be tying up his running shoes in the very near future.

[Clintonfatigued]

I certainly hope they offer him the sun and the stars, as well as the moon. We need to get rid of Reid, in spite of the occasional concessions he makes to conservatives.

[larlaw]

"Occasional concessions he's made to conservatives"??? I'd love to know what those are. Check out his A.D.A. and A.C.U. ratings for the last few years.

Reid is a hardcore beltway lefty, and votes with Teddy Kennedy the VAST majority of the time. He is as responsible as Daschle for blocking W's conservative judicial nominees. I would characterize Reid as a stalwart liberal who comes back to Nevada every six years and masquerades as a moderate. However, he is Mormon and draws some otherwise conservative votes on that basis alone, and further has the powerful organized labor lobby behind him which makes him hard to beat despite his views being far to the Left of Nevada. Plus, the (albeit diminishing in influence) Las Vegas Sun will again simply be an extension of the Reid campaign.

Further, for every conservative Californian who has moved here that vote is more than cancelled out by the tens of thousands of Democratic voting hispanic voters who have also moved here (or become legal age to vote, or become U.S. citizens, or vote fraudulently, etc)

I would characterize this race as a toss-up. Reid still has the advantage as the incumbent, but Gibbons could definitely beat him if he runs a strong campaign. (And voter fraud is kept to a minimum...NOT a sure thing)

[Clintonfatigued]

I want it to be understood that I do not support Harry Reid, or wish for him to be reelected. I am only posting this to clarify what I meant by Sen. Reid making "occasional concessions to conservatives." In 1991, he supported The Persian Gulf War resolution, in 1992 he opposed cutting funds for The Strategic Defense Initiative, in 1993, he opposed the Clinton assult weapon ban, in 1994 he didn't support Hillary-Care, in 1996 he supported the Republican-sponsered Welfare Reform, in 1997 and 1999 he supported the ban on partial birth abortion. Also, on land-use issues, he supported mining interests over environmental extremeists. As I said before, this is not an expression of support. In my opinion, Harry Reid is a sly, calculating politician who casts a few flashy moderate votes to conceal the fact that he supports the left when they really need it. While Reid is somewhat less liberal than Ted Kennedy, Hillary Clinton, and Tom Daschle, he is every bit as partisian, and therefore every bit as damaging to the country. Conservatives from Nevada should call Jim Gibbons office and urge him to run and run hard.

[Ann Archy]

How did a Western MANLY state get a nambypamby weasel like REID?? I cannot figure that out. He's a GIRLY-man.

[Richard-SIA]

Art Bell would still be an improvement over Sierra Harry!

I cannot describe exactly what a treacherouse lying waste of skin Reid is, probably illegal under some unconstitutional law he supported.

[Richard-SIA]

If Jim has the Brass B***'s to introduce his Veterans Heritage Firearms Act as promised, he will have NATIONAL support from veterans, their families, and NFA enthusiast for any office he chooses to seek.

[Richard-SIA]

Reid is not that popular in Searchlight (his home town), send him somewhere he fits in, but not to Nevada.

He got into politics when it became clear he was incompetent as a lawyer, look for him to land a very well paid position with one of the eco-nut groups.
They have owned him for a long time, they will continue to use him.

[Richard-SIA]

Reid LOST 15 of the 17 counties in Nevada.
He barely won in Washoe (Reno-Sparks).
He is strongest, and had his only real victory, in leftist Union saturated Clark county (Las Vegas).

Rural Nevada despises him, he is not even that welcome in his home town.
The greenies are constantly attcking Nevada industry, and they own Reid.
He only makes noise about supporting mining because he owns stock in it.

[Richard-SIA]

"in 1993, he opposed the Clinton assault weapon ban"

No, he did not.
He makes that claim when it suits his purposes, but it is not true.

He "opposed" the ban when it was a stand alone bill, knowing it was going to be defeated, for something like the seventh time.
He enthusiastically supported the ban as an amendment to the "Omnibus Crime Bill of 1994", which passed by a single vote.
If Reid had supported the constitution in place of Bubba Klinton and Diane Swinestein's feculent attack on our RKBA the AW Ban would have been deleted before the next and final vote.
He was one of those who used the "sunset clause" to excuse his treasonous actions.

Reid could have stopped the AW Ban if he really wanted to.

[BooBoo1000]

You don't understand Nevada Politics. Gibbons calls Reid, and says hey Harry let's do lunch. Harry Says O.K. if you buy. At lunch Reid says we both have a good thing going here, so forget about running for my job. If you do I will see to it you get a lot of help on some thing you want. End of Nevada deal. Except we in Nevada are still stuck with a couple of empty suits.