Gibbons says he could beat Democrat Reid in Nevada Senate race

AP ^ | Associated Press | SCOTT SONNER

[Pubbie]

Rep. Jim Gibbons, R-Nev., says he's convinced he could unseat Democratic Sen. Harry Reid next year though he hasn't decided whether to try.

The four-term congressman said he intends to announce by the end of the month whether he'll run against the second-ranking Democrat in the U.S. Senate.

[Pubbie]

*Ping*!

"One of the questions is whether or not we have the base of support and the resources to win the race," he said."

He'll have ALL the resources he can possibly want - I'm sure George Allen and Rove promised him the moon and other perks if runs against Reid!

[Blood of Tyrants]

Lifetime American Conservative Union rating of 91. Looks like a winner.

http://www.acuratings.com/acu.cgi?ACT=1&USER_ID=254&YEAR=2002

[KellyAdmirer]

Sounds like a man who is about to run, just wants to line up the funding in advance.

[Pubbie]

Might want to check out this thread:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/968032/posts

It says that the local Nevada GOP bigwigs expect Gibbons to run against Reid.

[Kuksool]

***Gibbons says he could beat Democrat Reid in Nevada Senate race***

I hope Gibbons makes it into a reality.

[GiveEmDubya]

I would like nothing more than to see that weasel Reid thrown out on his ass. Good riddance to him and hopefully Daschle.

[JohnnyZ]

1992 Election
Harry Reid for Senate, statewide: 253,150 votes

1998 Election
Harry Reid for Senate, statewide: 208,650 votes
Jim Gibbons for Congress (one of 2 CDs): 201,623 votes

2000 Election
Jim Gibbons for Congress (one of 2 CDs): 229,608 votes

[Kuksool]

Harry Reid won his 1998 Senate race against Ensign by 428 votes. The NV Senate seat is ripe for the picking next year.

[jmaroneps37]

A recent article told us that, of the states that conservatives who have fled mexifornia have gone to, Nevada is number one. Knowing what socialists look like, I think these Americans will vote to send reid packing. After all he only beat Ensign by about 950 votes in 98. Bye bye harry.

[randog]

Harry Reid won his 1998 Senate race against Ensign by 428 votes. The NV Senate seat is ripe for the picking next year.

I could see Gibbons unseating Reid, but it would be a close race--lots of variables. Nevadans are chomping at the bit to get rid of the tax-raising liberals (including lots of RINO's), so I could see that spilling over to the national election. On the down-side--Reid is a popular senator in the state, so it's going to be tough to get the independents to switch horses. It'll be an interesting race, though. Wonder if Reid's buddy Hillary will stump for him?..;^)

[Kuksool]

Do you think the Yucca Mountain Repository issue will play a factor in the Senate race next year? When Bush announced his nuclear waste plan, NV's Congressional Delegation opposed the plan. Reid might attempt to tie his GOP opponent to Bush.

[randog]

Do you think the Yucca Mountain Repository issue will play a factor in the Senate race next year?

No, I don't think anyone cares much about the nuke repository except for the granola-munchers. The raping we got in the last legislative session, however, will be on everyone's mind.

[JohnnyZ]

I agree about Yucca; the whole Nevada delegation was against it.

I'd bet at this point that JG will run. Which makes the senate races look much better:

West
CA - Marin & Strickland
WA - Nethercutt
NV - Gibbons
SD - Thune?
ND - Dale Brown?

South
NC - Burr
SC - DeMint, Condon, Ravenal, et al
GA - Cain, Collins, Isakson, Bartell
FL - Byrd, Webster, Weldon, Foley, McCollum
AR - Huckabee????? [Huckabee’s overall favorability rating was 59.4 percent in the poll (Aug 14th), about the same as U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., who received a 60.4 favorability rating.]

Elsewhere
IL - Ryan, Cox, Oberweis, McKenna
WI - Michels, Welch, others

Plus the Alaska probable primary and possible open seats in OK and LA.

[Impy]

Whew, that other article scared me.

[Impy]

If Byrd, Webster and Weldon all run Foley will probably win. :-|

[pogo101]

Run, Jim, run! PLEASE! Deliver us from Reid.

[Pubbie]

"West
CA - Marin & Strickland
WA - Nethercutt
NV - Gibbons
SD - Thune?
ND - Dale Brown?

South
NC - Burr
SC - DeMint, Condon, Ravenal, et al
GA - Cain, Collins, Isakson, Bartell
FL - Byrd, Webster, Weldon, Foley, McCollum
AR - Huckabee????? [Huckabee’s overall favorability rating was 59.4 percent in the poll (Aug 14th), about the same as U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., who received a 60.4 favorability rating.]

Elsewhere
IL - Ryan, Cox, Oberweis, McKenna
WI - Michels, Welch, others

Plus the Alaska probable primary and possible open seats in OK and LA."

West:

Ca - Forget about it.

Wa - Tossup/Leaning Slightly Democrat. Usually a Republican from Eastern Washington couldn't win a statewide election in Washington, but Usama bin Murray is a very weak candidate.

NV - If Gibbons runs (I think he will), he will win, because Jimbo will blowout Reid in Washoe. If he doesn't, the GOP is toast there.

SD - Thune will win if he runs.

ND - Leans slightly Republican if Brown runs. Dale Brown looks like he will finally take the plunge and run against Byron. Ed Schafer may have recruited a very strong candidate in Brown. AuH2ORepublican has told me that Brown is well known and liked in ND and can raise a good amount of money.

South:

NC - Leans strongly to a Burr win whether or not Edwards decides to run for Senate again (I don't think he will).

SC - DeMint should win the nomination and he'll defeat Inez Tenenbaum thanks to a hefty Bush bounce.

GA - I like Mac Collins to win the primary and take it all in Georgia.

FL - Leans Republican. I am a proponent of Daniel Webster, but Unless conservatives, like McCollum, drop out, Foley will win the primary.

But I think Foley would be a good candidate, not as good as Webster, but I think he can pull it off.

AR - I don't know what Huckabee is doing waiting so long to make up his mind. I don't think he'll run, but that's ok because Asa Hutchinson is the White House favorite to take down Blanche Lincoln; and Asa has said publicly that it would be very hard for him to say no if the WH asks him to run.

The sooner Huckabee makes up his mind, the sooner Asa can jump in.

IL - Leans Democrat. Jack Ryan will win the primary and will probably loose the election.

WI - If Michels wins the nomination, Leans Republican. Tim Michels has the potential to be 2004's Saxby Chambliss, ie an candidate that comes out of nowhere and takes down a heavily favored incumbent.

Michels is a succesful businessman who can self finance part of his campaign. He is also a veteran, and says his main campaign theme will be National Security.

This is a shrewd move because Michels, as a veteran, will be able to contrast his service to the nation with Feingold's obstruction of national security from his votes against the Patriot act and the Iraq war resolution.

Alaska - Safe Republican. George Allen and Rove are hell bent to prevent any primary challenge to Murkowski.

This will allow Murkowski to spend all of her time to hit Knowles over the head with the only argument that Murkowski needs: Voting for a Democrat Senator will risk giving the Senate back to the Democrats and thus ensure that ANWAR will never be oppened to drilling.

LA - The Democrats had better pray to GOD that Breaux doesn't retire because there will be a mighty Bush Bounce all across the South and especially in LA.

[swheats]

Saw this today.

http://www.jagibbons.com/

Could mean he's about to announce something.

[Pubbie]

Oh wow!

Don't mean to bury you guys under pings but it looks like Jim Gibbons has set up a "Campaign Website":

http://www.jagibbons.com/

Unless he's making a whole new website to run for a (Very very safe) Congressional seat, he looks like he's going to wage war against Reid.

Onward to Victory!

[swheats]

Shhhh don't tell anyone yet.

Well I see you can't keep a secret.

If he pulls out it's your fault. ;)

[Kuksool]

It is a good sign. If Gibbons did decline a Senate run, then the GOP might have to recruit a celebrity to run against Reid. Perhaps, Art Bell? LOL!

[Pubbie]

Do you know for a fact he's running or are just being a bit sarcastic? (Sorry to sound obsessive but I'm planning to give a sizable amount of campaign donations to GOP Senate Races next year, and I want to know which races I should put my money)

[swheats]

No one knows anything for sure until you hear it from Gibbons. He's another one that doesn't show his hand until he's ready to make his move. I just happened to being doing some research on patent information and came upon the web site. I posted because I remembered your thread from a day or so ago.

Now, if I may suggest, set aside a chunk of those funds. We need to send Reid home.

You might want to stock up on the decaf too nearing the elections. /sarcasm

[JohnnyZ]

Don't mean to bury you guys under pings

Too late :)

I saw that on Politics1, but don't pols usually take their campaign sites offline for a while before re-launching when their campaigns gear up? Does Gibbons use this site for all his campaigns? In this case it's an excellent way of masking his plans while keeping his website, senate or congressional, offline until he announces which way he's going.

But I'm willing to bet he's going senate.

[Pubbie]

"You might want to stock up on the decaf too nearing the elections. /sarcasm"

LOL!

:)

[Kuksool]

In FL, Daniel Webster has yet to declare his candidacy. FL House Speaker, Johnnie Byrd, has entered the Senate race, and is out raising funds.

In AR, Gov. Huckabee says he wants tend to state matters first before he gives any thoughts about a Senate race. So far, Huckabee is taking his own sweet time.

[Pubbie]

"Coming soon the new campaign website of Jim Gibbons"

It's a new site alright.

Huzzah!

[Pubbie]

"So far, Huckabee is taking his own sweet time."

He'd better make up his damn mind soon, he's delaying fundraising opportunities for other candidates while he sits twiddling his thumbs.

:(

[chickenlips]

When I saw "Gibbons" I thought the post was going to be about one of those loud acrobatic monkeys I saw that the zoo last week. I was thinking, a monkey vs a Democrat; I wonder how I could get involved in fund raising for the ape?

[Pubbie]

LOL.

[JohnnyZ]

In FL, Daniel Webster has yet to declare his candidacy.

Er, I think he just did the other day. Not sure if Weldon has made his candidacy official though.

[Kuksool]

Do you have a news link for Daniel Webster declaring his candidacy.

[JohnnyZ]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/florida/sfl-fsenate20aug20,1,106052.story?coll=sfla-news-florida

http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/democrat/news/local/6564149.htm

[Kuksool]

Thanks for the links.

[Xthe17th]

CA - Forget me NOT! Tom McClintock will have good name recognition by then. AND, if Rnold is in the guber mansion, he'll pull Republicans to the polls. If Busty's there instead, the state will be screwed worse so voters will be irate and running to the polls. Aither way, CA-'04 will have massive non-Democrat voter turnout which makes defeating Boxer, who is weak anyhow, all the more possible.

SD - Well it certainly won't be leadfoot Janklow. South Dakotans better first be looking for someone to replace him in the House. Thune?

GA - I like Herman Cain. Plenty of his own money, and plenty of conservative bible-belt blacks in that state to come out and vote for him.

IN - can Marvin Scott defeat Bayh? Hoosier state is pretty solid Republican. How popular can Byebye be?

MD - Marbara Mikulski IS beatable. I know Michael Steele says he isn't running, but the Repubs are foolish for not fielding even a half decent candidate for this race.

NY - can Michael Benjamin beat Schumer the tumor? Schumer didn't win by much last time and is a chief obstructionist of judicial nominees (some of whom happen to be hispanic, black, and women).

[Impy]

In LA there will probably be a runoff it Breaux retires, right. Bush would only be on the ballot in November.

[Impy]

I fear Bayh is unbeatable. Unless Dan Quayle takes him on!!!!! Quayle beat his dad Birch Bayh in 1980.

Bayh scares me a little. He has the amazing ability (for a rat) to say thing wihtout sounding like an a-hole.

Thankfully the left hates him and would never allow him to be on the Presidential ticket.

[zbigreddogz]

How can he be a popular Senator if he won by only 428 votes? Surely he can't be all that popular?

Why is Rove against a primary challenge against Lisa Murkowazzhername? I think we could do better then her for sure. I mean, as long as we have a credible candidate, isn't Alaska basically sewn up anyway?

[fieldmarshaldj]

NV Senate race *ping*

Gibby needs to get his butt into this race pronto, no excuses.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"CA - Forget me NOT! Tom McClintock will have good name recognition by then. AND, if Rnold is in the guber mansion, he'll pull Republicans to the polls. If Busty's there instead, the state will be screwed worse so voters will be irate and running to the polls. Aither way, CA-'04 will have massive non-Democrat voter turnout which makes defeating Boxer, who is weak anyhow, all the more possible."

McClintock needs to be Governor, as he is far more intimately knowledgeable of the Sacramento scene. If Ah-nold is dropped on the state, he'll Welderize the party and do for the Senate race next year what Ole Billy did to Mitt against Ah-nie's Unky Teddy.

"SD - Well it certainly won't be leadfoot Janklow. South Dakotans better first be looking for someone to replace him in the House. Thune?"

Thune needs to get his butt in the race.

"GA - I like Herman Cain. Plenty of his own money, and plenty of conservative bible-belt blacks in that state to come out and vote for him."

Right on.

"IN - can Marvin Scott defeat Bayh? Hoosier state is pretty solid Republican. How popular can Byebye be?"

Marv has been treated like the skunk at the garden party by the IN GOP. This man SHOULD be the Congressman from Indianapolis, but they gave him no $$ in '94 when he came within a few points of joining J.C. Watts and Gary Franks in the House. He will NOT beat Bayh. As was mentioned, Dan Quayle needs to get his butt back to Indy and leave Arizona, the dumbest move he ever made based on poor advice by the late President Nixon.

"MD - Marbara Mikulski IS beatable. I know Michael Steele says he isn't running, but the Repubs are foolish for not fielding even a half decent candidate for this race."

Steele wants to be Governor, so no Senate races in his future for now. Some talk of luring Wayne Curry, another semi-"moderate" African-American Democrat, to switch parties and run. It would be a major embarrassment for the 'Rats if he ran.

"NY - can Michael Benjamin beat Schumer the tumor? Schumer didn't win by much last time and is a chief obstructionist of judicial nominees (some of whom happen to be hispanic, black, and women)."

Unless we can get a name candidate, this race will be a blowout for Sen. Putzhead.

[Impy]

Dick Nixon told Quayle to go to Arizona? Why?

Was it supposed to be like when Nixon went to New York?

[fieldmarshaldj]

Nixon told Quayle to go to Arizona to start his run for the Presidency (ostensibly building two bases of support -- the midwest and the southwest). He told him not to make the mistake Nixon made in '62 running for Governor. But this was a flawed piece of advice. In '96 there was an open race for IN Governor (unlike CA '62 where Pat Brown stood in the way) and Quayle would've won it in a cakewalk and would've had the opportunity to demonstrate he could function effectively as a Chief Executive. As an added bonus, his wife Marilyn, could've run for the Senate in '98 against Bayh. She surely would've done better than the horrid Fort Wayne liberal RINO Mayor Paul Helmke.

[ken5050]

Pretty good analysis..a few points for your consideration, if I might:

1. If Breaux retires, expect Dona Brazile to announce..she'd be tough to beat..and she's been positioning herself in case the seat opens up..that's why she declined several offers to run Dem presidential campaigns....I happen to think Breaux will retire, BTW..

2. Alaska won't be close....W at the top of the ticket, and ALL the Dems in the Senate opposed to ANWR drilling...Lisa will be able to make the point that Alaska gains nothing from electing a Dem to the Senate, and besides with W getting 60% of the vote....man, that's a powerful lot of ticket splitting that would be needed..

3. Cal may be a surprise...a couple of reasons..the recall thing is a tsunami..but no one has yet figured out the direction of the tidal wave....if Davis quits...as I think he'll be forced to do..then Boxer will be the first Dem statewide to face the voters..she could catch a lot of the blame for what the dems have done to Cal...also..there's the possible "westcoast " effect int he election...if it's Bush v. Dean, for example..the race could well be decided around 10pm est....way before the Cal polls close, and the early exit polls are gona leak all over the net...thus, a lot of Cal dems could decide to saty home and not bother...it could be enough to cost Boxer her seat...

[Kevin Curry]

If the libertarians don't some to the resuce of Reid, Gibbons could be a winner.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Pubbie, these are my comments to your Senate-race handicaps:

"CA - Forget about it."

---

I disagree, we can win this thing. Boxer is too liberal even by CA standards, and if Rosario Marin can get even 35% of the Hispanic vote, she will win.


"Wa - Tossup/Leaning Slightly Democrat. Usually a Republican from Eastern Washington couldn't win a statewide election in Washington, but Usama bin Murray is a very weak candidate."

---

Agreed. While I don't think we should underestimate Nethercutt, he does have a bit of an uphill climb.


"NV - If Gibbons runs (I think he will), he will win, because Jimbo will blowout Reid in Washoe. If he doesn't, the GOP is toast there."

---

You're probably right on both counts.


"SD - Thune will win if he runs."

---

From your lips to God's ears. And we need Thune to run; otherwise Daschle will coast to reelection.


"ND - Leans slightly Republican if Brown runs. Dale Brown looks like he will finally take the plunge and run against Byron. Ed Schafer may have recruited a very strong candidate in Brown. AuH2ORepublican has told me that Brown is well known and liked in ND and can raise a good amount of money."

---

Whoa, whoa, whoa. I did say that Dale Brown is a local boy he made good and is well known in the state, and that he has the connections to raise big money, but I don't think it would be Brown's race to lose if he runs. Dorgan would still be the frontrunner, although I think Brown could pull it off because of the many disadvantages faced by Dorgan for the first time (which I described in the Dale Brown thread).

"NC - Leans strongly to a Burr win whether or not Edwards decides to run for Senate again (I don't think he will)."

---

I think Edwards will run, but I agree that it leans relatively strongly to Burr.


"SC - DeMint should win the nomination and he'll defeat Inez Tenenbaum thanks to a hefty Bush bounce."

---

I hope DeMint does get the nomination, and if he does he should win regardless of how large Bush's coattails are. But the coattails will help him win comfortably.


"GA - I like Mac Collins to win the primary and take it all in Georgia."

---

Well, I like Herman Cain to win the primary and the general. But if Mac wins the primary, I also agree he'd win in November. Our problem is the possibility of pro-abort Johnny Isakson buying the GOP nomination and getting beat by a moderate RAT because Isakson can't carry the conservative Dem South Georgia counties that gave Perdue and Chambliss the victory in 2002.


"FL - Leans Republican. I am a proponent of Daniel Webster, but Unless conservatives, like McCollum, drop out, Foley will win the primary. But I think Foley would be a good candidate, not as good as Webster, but I think he can pull it off."

---

I'm afraid you're right. There's no run-off in Georgia, so we need to have just one conservative out there. And I also like Webster, and so, allegedly, does President Bush So we need both McCollum and Byrd to drop out, and to convince Weldon not to get in. If Foley gets the nomination, I'm afraid he'd lose to Penelas or Boyd, although he should beat the more liberal Deutsch or Hastings.


"AR - I don't know what Huckabee is doing waiting so long to make up his mind. I don't think he'll run, but that's ok because Asa Hutchinson is the White House favorite to take down Blanche Lincoln; and Asa has said publicly that it would be very hard for him to say no if the WH asks him to run. The sooner Huckabee makes up his mind, the sooner Asa can jump in."

---

I agree, Asa is the man. I'm not sure Huckabee could pull it off.


"IL - Leans Democrat. Jack Ryan will win the primary and will probably lose the election."

---

It's too early to write off Jack Ryan, especially since we don't know who the RAT nominee will be. If Hull or Pappas or Chico get the nomination, it would be Ryan's race to lose. If Obama gets the nod, it would be tougher for Jack, but I think he'd be a slight favorite. His toughest race would come against Hynes, but even then he'd have a good shot of winning. I don't know if Ryan will get 75% of the female vote (as JohnnyZ insists), but I'm certain his looks will help him do much better than if he looked like, say, Dennis Kucinich.


"WI - If Michels wins the nomination, Leans Republican. Tim Michels has the potential to be 2004's Saxby Chambliss, ie an candidate that comes out of nowhere and takes down a heavily favored incumbent."

---

I hope you're right. While Feingold is vulnerable because he's too far left for Wisconsin, Michels will have his work cut out for him.


"Alaska - Safe Republican. George Allen and Rove are hell bent to prevent any primary challenge to Murkowski. This will allow Murkowski to spend all of her time to hit Knowles over the head with the only argument that Murkowski needs: Voting for a Democrat Senator will risk giving the Senate back to the Democrats and thus ensure that ANWAR will never be oppened to drilling."

---

First of all, if a conservative in Alaska wants to run in the primary, there's nothing Allen or Rove or even President Bush could do to prevent him or her. Second, Knowles is not someone who should be taken lightly. While I agree that Murkowski should use the ANWR argument as much as possible, it may not work because (i) few people believe that the RATs can retake the Senate, even if the win AK, (ii) having a GOP Senate and 2 AK Republicans in it has not been enough to approve ANWR exploration, and (iii) Knowles will surely argue that, as a Democrat, he may be able to sway a couple of RATs to his side, just as Senator Stephens could do with Republicans, and get the 50 votes for passage. So I think Murkowski will survive the primary and go on to beat Knowles by like 52%-43%, but not before some scares along the way.


"LA - The Democrats had better pray to GOD that Breaux doesn't retire because there will be a mighty Bush Bounce all across the South and especially in LA."

---

If Breaux retires, the seat will most definitely lean Republican. But if Chris John runs for the RATs, it won't be a slam dunk regardless of who our candidate is (especially with the recent history of sour grapes among Republican primary losers).


Pubbie, you forgot to mention PA. I think Toomey has a good shot of retiring Specter in the primary, and then defeating Hoeffel (or whoever) in the general. Hoeffel's gun-grabbing record won't help him any in blue-collar Dem areas.

And in NY, we will take out Schumer if Rudy runs. If Rudy doesn't run, it will not even be close. It's that simple. Run, Rudy, run!

Can someone tell me why NOBODY wants to challenge Ron Wyden in Oregon? Sure, he's a popular incumbent, but he's also a Portland liberal in a state that Bush will almost certainly carry in 2004.

Maryland and Connecticut are pretty much hopeless, and my preference would be to convince RINO Congressmen Gilchrest and Shays to run in their respective states. They would have as good a chance as anyone to defeat the ultraliberal incumbents, Mikulski and Dodd, but more importantly it would get them the hell out of the House and allow us to elect conservatives in their districts (Gilchrest's district (as redrawn in 2002) is ridiculously Republican, and Shays' district is the most Republican in Connecticut).

[JohnnyZ]

I don't know if Ryan will get 75% of the female vote (as JohnnyZ insists),

At LEAST. :)

I'm very bullish on Jack Ryan for senate. Solid financial and personal foundations with high growth potential and expectations of high dividends when he's elected. His election will be a lesson for conservatives across the country that with hard work, a positive attitude, and commitment to living your ideals you can make the grade when the electoral test comes.

[Pubbie]

"Pubbie, you forgot to mention PA. I think Toomey has a good shot of retiring Specter in the primary, and then defeating Hoeffel (or whoever) in the general. Hoeffel's gun-grabbing record won't help him any in blue-collar Dem areas."

Yes, Toomey should be able to win the primary against SphinkDer, and I'll bet he goes on to take down the very liberal Hoeffel.

[ImphClinton]

I hope he runs.

I would love to see Reed unseated.

[Pubbie]

The GOP party leaders in Nevada think he's going to be tying up his running shoes in the very near future.