Super Bowl 38 pick: Rams over Raiders

Yahoooooo Sporting News ^ | 08/28/03 | Dan Pompei

[bedolido]

What makes a Super Bowl winner?

The cliche answer is great defenses, and the last three Super Bowl winners -- Tampa, New England and Baltimore -- support that logic. But before the 2000 season, the argument can be made that 12 of the previous 13 Super Bowl winners (the lone exception being the 1990 Giants) were offense-dominated teams.

So great offenses also can win. In fact, it says here great offenses will win this season when the Rams beat the Raiders in the Arena, er, Super Bowl.

What wins Super Bowls are transcendent players who redefine their careers at the ultimate moments. Think John Elway helicoptering to a first down in 1998. Think Joe Montana dissecting the Bengals on the game-winning drive in 1989.

What wins Super Bowls are coaches who give transcendent players advantages by putting them in positions to succeed. Think Jon Gruden and Bill Belichick the last two seasons or, if you prefer, Joe Gibbs in 1988.

Assuming Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk are healthy and can play as they did two seasons ago, no team has more game changers than the Rams. Some would say it is a big assumption that they will be healthy, but it may be a bigger assumption that two of the most gifted players in the game can lose their gifts so quickly.

This team also has the premier offensive mind in the game. Mike Martz is the coach whom offensive coaches at every level of football study in order to better prepare their teams.

Think Warner throwing beautiful spiral after beautiful spiral on February 1 in Houston, just as he did when he was the NFL's Most Valuable Player in 1999 and 2001. Think Faulk dancing through gaps, around linebackers and by defensive backs. Think Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt bursting out of their breaks, making effortless catches and then running away from everyone.

Think Martz making 11 offensive players look like 18, temporarily paralyzing a defense that can't possibly keep up with so many shifts, motions and personnel changes.

Think Rich Gannon throwing short, precise strikes, each one a dagger, to Jerry Rice, Jerry Porter, Tim Brown, Charlie Garner, Doug Jolley, Teyo Johnson and Tyrone Wheatley. But those short strikes don't hurt as much as Warner's long ones.

Think Rams 34, Raiders 28.

AFC picks

Division winners: Dolphins, Steelers, Titans and Raiders Wild-card teams: Colts and Bills AFC championship: Raiders over Dolphins

NFC picks

Division winners: Eagles, Packers, Bucs, Rams Wild-card teams: 49ers and Giants NFC championship: Rams over Packers

Super Bowl winner: Rams

Award picks Defensive player of the year: DE Jason Taylor, Dolphins Offensive rookie of the year: TE Dallas Clark, Colts Defensive rookie of the year: CB Terence Newman, Cowboys Comeback player of the year: QB Kurt Warner, Rams Coach of the year: Gregg Williams, Bills

Senior writer Dan Pompei covers the NFL for Sporting News. Email him at pompei@sportingnews.com.

[gdani]

The browns are getting better

On offense maybe but not defense. They couldn't stop a pee-wee league on defense. They were extremely lucky to make the playoffs last season (after which they ditched all of their starting linebackers). They have zero pass rush & a totally inadequate secondary.

And I say all this as a Browns fan.

[mr.pink]

Raiders will not be in the Super Bowl again. They are just too damn old.

I agree...scratch Oakland. Tenn is top choice in my book (IMO-the toughest, most physical team on both sides of the ball in the league) followed by Pitt, Miami, and NE in a tree way tie.

NFC: Eagles.

[mr.pink]

As for the NFC Central, the Pack might win the division IF Favre's receivers learn how to catch (they couldn't last year), but don't rule the Bears out. Bears will get a wildcard.

I think the Vikes will climb past the Bears for second in that Div. The Vikes impressed me with the way they finished last year...I had them pegged for the type of team that would just give up and play out the string, but they showed pride and toughness.

[Jhensy]

Love those Banff photos on your profile, BTW. My college roommate's parents were schoolteachers, and every summer they'd take him and his brother on cross-country car trips, eventually seeing all of the U.S. and Canada.

I asked him what was the most beautiful place he saw on all their travels, and without hesitation he said, "Banff." I have always meant to get up there one day. The kind of place us skyscraper-bound NYers dream of.

TO FOOTBALL: The Giants should have no excuses this year. They have addressed the special teams problems, the offense is high-powered with a motivated and healthy Hilliard added to the Shockey/Toomer/Tiki nexus, and the defense should be dominant.

With Sehorn gone, the secondary is outstanding; the linebacking corps of Barrow/Short/Dhani were FLYING against the Jets; and I'm getting excited about the 2 new guys on the line, Yumeiora and Joseph, plus the return of Hamilton. And the Eagles are weakened...

[rdb3]

The Buccaneers will repeat.

[discostu]

Martz is showing no reform on his pass whackiness. He hardly uses Marshall Faulk and he loses games because of it. You need to control the clock to control the game and to conrol the clock you must run the football. Martz doesn't like to run the football, that's why they lost in the Super Bowl that's why they stank last season and that's why they're going to continue to stink until he stops believing his own press and start calling a more balanced game.

[pgyanke]

Here's a prediction... ANYBODY beats the Raiders in the Super Bowl.

They may be my team but I'm still waiting for them to actually show up for a clutch game these recent years. Notice that I think they'll get there... they're good at that. They just seem to have a tendency to say "now what?"...

[Beck_isright]

"I have to admit... I LOVE THIS GUY... He really knows what he's talking about (GO RAMS!)"

Totally clueless. Most writers are picking a repeat winner:

[showme_the_Glory]

JUST WIN BABY ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

[bedolido]

My pick for Superbowl 38 is... The Bengals and the Lions... and if that happens, check to see if Hell has frozen over

[discostu]

The Bears took Kordell Stewart, they're doomed. He has a genetic need to throw interceptions. NFC North is a walk for the Pack because they're the only remotely compitent team in the division. The two dumbest pickups of the year were the Bears grabbing Stewart and the Broncs getting Plummer, both quarterbacks stink on ice and no matter how bad their predecessor was these were downgrades.

[discostu]

I believe the Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt.

[StatesEnemy]

No friggin way the Dolfish are gonna win the AFC East.

The Pats have solved the running game.

[dfwgator]

had them pegged for the type of team that would just give up and play out the string, but they showed pride and toughness.

And I think Randy Moss is getting his "head right with ball", I am looking for him to have a monster year. And I am no Vikings fan, I am a Lions fan so I hate the Vikings, but I am objective. The Vikes are my sleeper to win the whole thing.

[capydick]

Are any of these pre-season predictions ever correct?

I'd keep an eye out for who Phil Mickelson put's his money on, his Super Bowl pick does better than most of the "experts" and, gets a nice payday to boot.

[dfwgator]

I believe the Bengals have already been eliminated from the playoff hunt.

Along with Dallas. If you compare this years Cowboys' roster with the 89 team, they actually look even worse than that bunch. 0 and 16 is not out of the question, but watch for them in a couple of years, Parcells will get it turned around just like Jimmy did.

[discostu]

Parcells won't stick around long enough to get it turned around, being completely unfamiliar with the concept of loyalty he's not into long tenures.

[Texas Federalist]

Pittsburgh Steelers. Great on both sides of the ball and the first year without Kordell to screw everything up for us.

[mr.pink]

And I think Randy Moss is getting his "head right with ball", I am looking for him to have a monster year.

When it comes to Randy, I'll pretend like I'm from Missouri...he'll have to "show me". The guys got such tremendous ability.

And I know what you mean about being objective...I'm a Steeler fan but I have to give Tenn it's due.

[Mr. Mojo]

The Rams suck, and so does their murderess old-whore owner. (Yes, Georgia was indeed a high-priced hooker in her younger days, and she ordered the murder her husband Carrol Rosenbloom).

The Raiders are my team, but I have to admit that they probably hit their peak last year, and after this season's (predicted...by me) debacle will probably have to rebuild.