N Korean Threat And Beijing's Proliferation Strategy

American Foreign Policy Council | Ilan Berman

[FreepForever]

THE EVOLVING NORTH KOREAN THREAT

Amid multilateral talks in Asia to determine its nuclear future, analysts are warning about North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile advances. CIA estimates from earlier this year gauge that the Kim Jong-Il regime already has one or two nuclear weapons, and analysts tell the Agence France Presse (August 24) that the DPRK is now working hard to marry its newfound nuclear capabilities with its advanced ballistic missile program. If successful, such efforts would have sinister results. According to Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, the Director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Pyongyang can already target parts of the US with a nuclear weapon-sized payload in the two-stage configuration of its “Taepo-Dong” intercontinental ballistic missile. With further advances in ballistic missile development, like the refinement of a third stage, and with its emerging nuclear arsenal, Pyongyang would be able to pose an atomic threat to the entire United States, the DIA Director predicts.

BEIJING’S ASIAN PROLIFERATION STRATEGY

The People’s Republic of China uses the transfer of nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to rogue states as a tool of global influence, according to G. Parthasarathy. Writing in the August 26th Business Line, Parthasarathy, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, stresses that extensive Chinese assistance has been instrumental to North Korea’s development of the “Taepo-Dong 2” and that Beijing has played a central role in Pakistan’s development of nuclear capabilities. Over time, Parthasarathy writes, this cooperation has led to a trilateral “proliferation axis”, one that has given Pakistan access to North Korean ballistic missiles and allowed Pakistani nuclear know-how to flow to North Korea. And though this axis now menaces India, New Delhi shouldn’t look to Washington, according to the former diplomat, “given the ambivalence and obfuscation that have characterised the approach of both the Clinton and Bush Administrations to the activities of the Beijing-Islamabad-Pyongyang Axis of Proliferation, it is obvious that New Delhi will have largely to act on its own in dealing with the security challenges it faces from the axis.”

MOSCOW MOVES INTO SOUTH ASIAN MISSILE DEFENSE MARKET

Fresh from Russian President Vladimir Putin‚s high-profile August visit to Malaysia, the Kremlin is poised to tighten ties to another Asian nation ˆ Vietnam ˆ through the sale of sophisticated missile defense technology. The August 22nd edition of Russia’s Vedomosti reveals that Vietnam is poised to become the third country, after Cyprus and China, to receive Russia’s S-300 air defense system. A deal for no less than two S-300 divisions, valued in the neighborhood of $300 million, has reportedly already been inked by Russia‚s state-owned Rosoboronexport arms conglomerate to deliver the systems to Hanoi.

[FreepForever]

((( PING )))
Freepmail for on and off list.

[Lunatic Fringe]

All North Korea has to do if fit 4 or 5 nukes... they already have missiles that can hit Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, L.A., and San Diego. The Chinese, who now control the Panama Canal, shut down the canal to all US Naval ships... Suddenly, the Far East controls the Pacific.

[nravoter]

Workers' Paradise Bump

[GOP_1900AD]

The next country to surprise the non proliferation "experts" here in the West with nuke capabilities will likely be Myanmar.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #2

China is suffereing from her own blowback now. It was fun to tweak America by giving a missile technology to N. Korea. However, N. Korea is no longer a "team player". Its nuclear brinkmanship could push Japan and possibly the rest of the region into going on a nuclear path. Now China has to clean up her own mess, before it is too late.

[thoughtomator]

Except for the slight problem of the massive force the US maintains in the Pacific.

[Lunatic Fringe]

And where does most of that force dock?

[HighRoadToChina]

What evidence do you have that N. Korea is no longer a "team player"?

[thoughtomator]

Hawaii, Alaska, Vancouver, Guam, the Philipines, or Australia?

You're making unproven assumptions
(1) The NKs can reliably have any their missiles hit targets at range
(2) The NKs can plausibly have all their missiles hit the indicated targets
(3) The US is not able to mount any defense to these missiles
(4) China would militarily intervene in a NK-US conflict against the US

You've also made an unproven assertion that NK has missiles that can reach the indicated cities.

In addition, I do not believe the Chinese would realistically attempt to seize the Panama canal. It is far too difficult for them to hold and too easy for us to remove them. A serious US-China conflict would resolve itself by nuclear strikes, so there would be no point for the Chinese to do that. There are also allied forces in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Phillipines, and Taiwan to be factored into the equation.

Direct US-China military conflict is unlikely in the extreme (not that we shouldn't be prepared for it if necessary). We have too many advantages, and would never be the ones to initiate it. The Chinese are not insane like Islamofascists and the NK regime.

I find it more likely that in the event of US-NK conflict, the Chinese will attempt to take over NK to block an expansion of US influence.

[11B3]

Most of that fleet is deployed. At least 2/3 of it is at sea at any given moment, sometimes more. Here in Puget Sound, they would have to be quite specific in their targeting: Bremerton for surface ships, Bangor for subs, etc. There goes their entire stock of ICBMs.

Bad (shortsighted) theory.

[Jabba the Nutt]

Bingo!

NorKor is a tenth rate power. They have to decide how they are going to go down. Alone or do they want to take some people with them. NorKor wants an American guarantee for the existence of their regime. George Bush isn't going to give them one. If they lash out, they are dead, dead, dead.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #9

China has been airing her displeasure in various channels. No. 3 man in Chinese embassy in Seoul complained about N. Korea at length. Chinese have been talking to U.S. media(NYT, etc) about their frustration. China has been softening its stance on N. Korean refugees. China came down hard on Yang Bin, the head of Shinuiju Free Economic Zone(?), humiliating N. Korea. China reportedly studied invasion of N. Korea early this year. China also cut off oil pipeline to N. Korea for three days as a warning.

They are not doing this for altruistic reason, for sure. However, it is in their interest to rein on a N. Korean regime.

[batter]

As I recall, in March (while North Korea was huffing and puffing), both Japan and Taiwan stated they would consider going nuclear if North Korea was alowed to. China didn't like the idea and started putting pressure on Kim and co.
Whatever the case, this has some blowback on the PRC but there isn't much of a question that the PRC significantly helped bring this situation about. The PRC is currently attempting to gain global stature via the ongoing situation (see: High stakes and big payoff for Beijing).
Some additional articles:
The Six Party Talks: Same Bed, Different Dreams
China tries on the new clothes of the global referee
No separate formal talks with N. Korea: US
Spat over abductions (North Korea-Japan)
USCC: China’s Proliferation Practices and the Challenge of North Korea
US slaps sanctions on Chinese company over alleged missile proliferation
U.S. seeks action by Beijing on proliferation
More articles can be found on ChiCom Watch but I don't have time to post them all. I'm sure FR also has a plethora of posted articles regarding the Nutty Korea talks etc.

[GOP_1900AD]

Its in their interest to make sure that the US don't do too much snooping about how the PRC secretly helps, along with Pakistan and Russia, to prop up the DPRK. And I'm not talking about the extortion money that stupid US liberals have given them or even the peaceful nuclear aid the Klintoon got into. I'm talking about arms and intelligence aid. Naturally, both the ChiCOMs and the Ruskies will act like they are concerned about the DPRK all the while winking at them about the dumb American liberal dupes.

[The Pheonix]

I agree with both your postings

[Lunatic Fringe]

I do not believe the Chinese would realistically attempt to seize the Panama canal.

They already control the canal... Clinton handed it over in 1999.

[The Pheonix]

I believe that the PANAMA Govt has diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and NOT with China

And there are 300,000 Taiwanese living in Panama

[thoughtomator]

I know all about it. It's not nearly as dramatic as you imply. The Chinese do not have military control over the canal, and could not maintain it no matter how many buildings of arms they stash. Plus, any benefits to shutting down the canal would only accrue over the course of weeks, as ships only move so fast. In the midst of a nuclear exchange, as such a conflict would have by the military doctrine of both nations, the war would be long over by the time control of the Panama Canal mattered.

[Doe Eyes]

They already control the canal... Clinton handed it over in 1999.

That's not true.