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N Korean Threat And Beijing's Proliferation Strategy
American Foreign Policy Council
| Ilan Berman
Posted on 08/29/2003 3:56:58 PM PDT by FreepForever
THE EVOLVING NORTH KOREAN THREAT
Amid multilateral talks in Asia to determine its nuclear future, analysts are warning about North Koreas nuclear and ballistic missile advances. CIA estimates from earlier this year gauge that the Kim Jong-Il regime already has one or two nuclear weapons, and analysts tell the Agence France Presse (August 24) that the DPRK is now working hard to marry its newfound nuclear capabilities with its advanced ballistic missile program. If successful, such efforts would have sinister results. According to Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, the Director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Pyongyang can already target parts of the US with a nuclear weapon-sized payload in the two-stage configuration of its Taepo-Dong intercontinental ballistic missile. With further advances in ballistic missile development, like the refinement of a third stage, and with its emerging nuclear arsenal, Pyongyang would be able to pose an atomic threat to the entire United States, the DIA Director predicts.
BEIJINGS ASIAN PROLIFERATION STRATEGY
The Peoples Republic of China uses the transfer of nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to rogue states as a tool of global influence, according to G. Parthasarathy. Writing in the August 26th Business Line, Parthasarathy, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, stresses that extensive Chinese assistance has been instrumental to North Koreas development of the Taepo-Dong 2 and that Beijing has played a central role in Pakistans development of nuclear capabilities. Over time, Parthasarathy writes, this cooperation has led to a trilateral proliferation axis, one that has given Pakistan access to North Korean ballistic missiles and allowed Pakistani nuclear know-how to flow to North Korea. And though this axis now menaces India, New Delhi shouldnt look to Washington, according to the former diplomat, given the ambivalence and obfuscation that have characterised the approach of both the Clinton and Bush Administrations to the activities of the Beijing-Islamabad-Pyongyang Axis of Proliferation, it is obvious that New Delhi will have largely to act on its own in dealing with the security challenges it faces from the axis.
MOSCOW MOVES INTO SOUTH ASIAN MISSILE DEFENSE MARKET
Fresh from Russian President Vladimir Putins high-profile August visit to Malaysia, the Kremlin is poised to tighten ties to another Asian nation Vietnam through the sale of sophisticated missile defense technology. The August 22nd edition of Russias Vedomosti reveals that Vietnam is poised to become the third country, after Cyprus and China, to receive Russias S-300 air defense system. A deal for no less than two S-300 divisions, valued in the neighborhood of $300 million, has reportedly already been inked by Russias state-owned Rosoboronexport arms conglomerate to deliver the systems to Hanoi.
TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ballistic; beijing; beijingsummit; china; chinastuff; missile; northkorea; nuclear; zanupf
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To: *China stuff; *china_stuff; Enemy Of The State; HighRoadToChina; maui_hawaii; Slyfox; ...
((( PING )))
Freepmail for on and off list.
2
posted on
08/29/2003 3:58:51 PM PDT
by
FreepForever
(Communist China is the hub of all evil)
To: FreepForever
All North Korea has to do if fit 4 or 5 nukes... they already have missiles that can hit Seattle, San Francisco, Portland, L.A., and San Diego. The Chinese, who now control the Panama Canal, shut down the canal to all US Naval ships... Suddenly, the Far East controls the Pacific.
3
posted on
08/29/2003 4:02:52 PM PDT
by
Lunatic Fringe
(This tag line has been intentionally left blank.)
To: FreepForever
Workers' Paradise Bump
4
posted on
08/29/2003 4:03:45 PM PDT
by
nravoter
(Try new "Howard Dean": from the makers of Michael Dukakis)
To: FreepForever
The next country to surprise the non proliferation "experts" here in the West with nuke capabilities will likely be Myanmar.
5
posted on
08/29/2003 4:09:24 PM PDT
by
GOP_1900AD
(Un-PC even to "Conservatives!" - Right makes right)
To: FreepForever
Re #2
China is suffereing from her own blowback now. It was fun to tweak America by giving a missile technology to N. Korea. However, N. Korea is no longer a "team player". Its nuclear brinkmanship could push Japan and possibly the rest of the region into going on a nuclear path. Now China has to clean up her own mess, before it is too late.
To: Lunatic Fringe
Except for the slight problem of the massive force the US maintains in the Pacific.
7
posted on
08/29/2003 4:17:09 PM PDT
by
thoughtomator
(Welcome to the Iraq Roach Motel - Islamofascists check in, but they don't check out!)
To: thoughtomator
And where does most of that force dock?
8
posted on
08/29/2003 4:23:31 PM PDT
by
Lunatic Fringe
(This tag line has been intentionally left blank.)
To: TigerLikesRooster
What evidence do you have that N. Korea is no longer a "team player"?
To: Lunatic Fringe
Hawaii, Alaska, Vancouver, Guam, the Philipines, or Australia?
You're making unproven assumptions
(1) The NKs can reliably have any their missiles hit targets at range
(2) The NKs can plausibly have all their missiles hit the indicated targets
(3) The US is not able to mount any defense to these missiles
(4) China would militarily intervene in a NK-US conflict against the US
You've also made an unproven assertion that NK has missiles that can reach the indicated cities.
In addition, I do not believe the Chinese would realistically attempt to seize the Panama canal. It is far too difficult for them to hold and too easy for us to remove them. A serious US-China conflict would resolve itself by nuclear strikes, so there would be no point for the Chinese to do that. There are also allied forces in Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Phillipines, and Taiwan to be factored into the equation.
Direct US-China military conflict is unlikely in the extreme (not that we shouldn't be prepared for it if necessary). We have too many advantages, and would never be the ones to initiate it. The Chinese are not insane like Islamofascists and the NK regime.
I find it more likely that in the event of US-NK conflict, the Chinese will attempt to take over NK to block an expansion of US influence.
10
posted on
08/29/2003 4:37:10 PM PDT
by
thoughtomator
(Welcome to the Iraq Roach Motel - Islamofascists check in, but they don't check out!)
To: Lunatic Fringe
Most of that fleet is deployed. At least 2/3 of it is at sea at any given moment, sometimes more. Here in Puget Sound, they would have to be quite specific in their targeting: Bremerton for surface ships, Bangor for subs, etc. There goes their entire stock of ICBMs.
Bad (shortsighted) theory.
11
posted on
08/29/2003 4:39:00 PM PDT
by
11B3
(Looking for a belt-fed, multi-barreled 12 guage. It's Liberal season, no daily limit.)
To: TigerLikesRooster
Bingo!
NorKor is a tenth rate power. They have to decide how they are going to go down. Alone or do they want to take some people with them. NorKor wants an American guarantee for the existence of their regime. George Bush isn't going to give them one. If they lash out, they are dead, dead, dead.
To: HighRoadToChina
Re #9
China has been airing her displeasure in various channels. No. 3 man in Chinese embassy in Seoul complained about N. Korea at length. Chinese have been talking to U.S. media(NYT, etc) about their frustration. China has been softening its stance on N. Korean refugees. China came down hard on Yang Bin, the head of Shinuiju Free Economic Zone(?), humiliating N. Korea. China reportedly studied invasion of N. Korea early this year. China also cut off oil pipeline to N. Korea for three days as a warning.
They are not doing this for altruistic reason, for sure. However, it is in their interest to rein on a N. Korean regime.
To: HighRoadToChina; TigerLikesRooster
14
posted on
08/29/2003 5:56:54 PM PDT
by
batter
(Boycott "Made in China")
To: TigerLikesRooster
Its in their interest to make sure that the US don't do too much snooping about how the PRC secretly helps, along with Pakistan and Russia, to prop up the DPRK. And I'm not talking about the extortion money that stupid US liberals have given them or even the peaceful nuclear aid the Klintoon got into. I'm talking about arms and intelligence aid. Naturally, both the ChiCOMs and the Ruskies will act like they are concerned about the DPRK all the while winking at them about the dumb American liberal dupes.
15
posted on
08/29/2003 6:56:47 PM PDT
by
GOP_1900AD
(Un-PC even to "Conservatives!" - Right makes right)
To: thoughtomator; Jabba the Nutt
I agree with both your postings
To: thoughtomator
I do not believe the Chinese would realistically attempt to seize the Panama canal. They already control the canal... Clinton handed it over in 1999.
17
posted on
08/29/2003 9:03:57 PM PDT
by
Lunatic Fringe
(This tag line has been intentionally left blank.)
To: Lunatic Fringe
I believe that the PANAMA Govt has diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and NOT with China
And there are 300,000 Taiwanese living in Panama
To: Lunatic Fringe
I know all about it. It's not nearly as dramatic as you imply. The Chinese do not have military control over the canal, and could not maintain it no matter how many buildings of arms they stash. Plus, any benefits to shutting down the canal would only accrue over the course of weeks, as ships only move so fast. In the midst of a nuclear exchange, as such a conflict would have by the military doctrine of both nations, the war would be long over by the time control of the Panama Canal mattered.
19
posted on
08/29/2003 9:10:26 PM PDT
by
thoughtomator
(Welcome to the Iraq Roach Motel - Islamofascists check in, but they don't check out!)
To: Lunatic Fringe
They already control the canal... Clinton handed it over in 1999. That's not true.
20
posted on
08/29/2003 9:17:06 PM PDT
by
Doe Eyes
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