Posted on 09/02/2003 5:12:43 AM PDT by kattracks
(CNSNews.com) - Labor Day marks the traditional kickoff for the presidential campaign season, and Mass. Sen. John Kerry will formally announce his candidacy on Tuesday. But the already-crowded Democratic field had a pre-Labor Day shake-up, with former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean surging ahead of Kerry in New Hampshire.
Kerry himself has dismissed the emerging trend. "The polls are very early, and they move a lot. [Dean] has done a good job," Kerry acknowledged on MSNBC. In fact, Dean has been running early television ads in New Hampshire.
But, Kerry suggested, "people want more than just anger, railing at things. They want real solutions [and] leadership."
But political analyst Ron Faucheux says Kerry, a decorated Vietnam war veteran and supporter of the war in Iraq, has yet to energize his party's liberal base.
"His campaign suffers from a gaping enthusiasm gap, and that's what Dean's campaign has," said Faucheux.
The New Republic magazine is calling it a Kerry "free fall."
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center in Durham, has described Kerry as "out-hustled" by Dean, who has been free of the distractions of attending to a current office (unlike Kerry and three other Democratic candidates).
And Democratic strategist Donna Brazile has declared Dean "in the driver's seat."
"Unless his campaign veers too far off his message [and] collide[s] with his message, then I think Dean is right now the candidate to be," Brazile predicted.
"His support is really across the board," pollster John Zogby told the Boston Herald.
A pre-Labor Day Zogby poll showed Kerry trailing Dean by 21 points in New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary and a neighbor of Kerry's home state.
The poll of 501 likely primary voters, taken Aug. 23-26, showed 38 percent support for Dean, 17 percent support for Kerry and everyone else in single digits. A quarter of likely Democratic voters remained undecided, according to the poll, but the Dean surge overturned an advantage enjoyed by Kerry just a few months ago.
Another poll by Research 2000 showed Dean also climbing into first place in Iowa, besting former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt (Mo.) and Kerry. Though Iowa was never a Kerry stronghold, the New Englander is now in third place, nine points behind Dean.
The Dean advantage, as Faucheux sees it, is that Dean excites the liberal, anti-war Democratic base. After all, Dean has been outspokenly opposed to the war in Iraq and in favor of universal, government-run health care.
"There's a significant, strong, anti-war constituency within the Democratic Party that Dean has appealed to that's getting him all this support, this money, these volunteers," Faucheux said.
Liberals long for a strong voice, says Faucheux, after eight years of Bill Clinton "blurring differences" between Democrats and Republicans "for tactical reasons," followed by the 2000 Al Gore campaign, "which I think a lot of Democrats didn't find to be particularly satisfying."
National polls still show Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) often leading the pack of nine (not counting declared candidate Lyndon LaRouche, a perennial outsider). A CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll of adults conducted in late July showed Lieberman with 20 percent support, followed by Kerry (16 percent), Gephardt (14 percent) and Dean (10 percent). The rest of the field was in single digits.
In the fundraising department, Kerry remains the leader in cumulative fundraising ($16 million), followed by Edwards ($12 million), Dean ($10.5 million), Gephardt ($9.7 million) and Lieberman ($8 million).
But it's Dean who's reported a $10,000-an-hour, four-day Internet fundraising coup and boldly predicted a $10 million goal for this quarter, referencing the record Bill Clinton established in the fall of 1995. Kerry's campaign has reportedly acknowledged their camp won't raise as much.
But many analysts foresee pitfalls for Dean, such as electability. Faucheux reports that Dean has yet to make inroads with blacks, labor leaders, environmentalists and feminist interests in the party.
And a Dean candidacy may play into the hands of the Republican Party. "I think Dean would be the candidate they could marginalize furthest to the left," said Faucheux.
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Kerry was? I hadn't heard that... < /sarc >
A: Kerry who?
Over/under: 12
This from a president wannabee who can't even lead 6 other candidates.
Can someone tell this writer that Vermont is also a neighbor of New Hampshire! Maybe that is the reason that Dean has so many supporters there. New Hampshire-ites are not that keen with any MASShole, and especially not a rich, arrogant one like Kerry.
Actually, it was flatulence.
They're creepy and they're kooky,
Mysterious and spooky,
They're all together ooky,
The Kerry Family.
His hair is sort of funny
He'll marry anybody
So long as she has money
The Kerry Family.
(Neat)
(Sweet)
(Petite)
She inherited some ketchup
She doesn't ever shut up
You never know when she'll blow up
The Kerry Family
So get a witches shawl on
A broomstick you can crawl on
We're gonna pay a call on
The Kerry Family.
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