Bush Numbers Hit New Low: majority say job performance fair or poor

Zogby ^ | Sept. 6, 2003

[mrweb]

Bush Numbers Hit New Low; Dean Tops List of Democratic Presidential Contenders, New Zogby America Poll Reveals

President George W. Bush’s job performance ratings have reached the lowest point since his pre-Inauguration days, continuing a steady decline since a post-9/11 peak, according to a new Zogby America poll of 1,013 likely voters conducted September 3-5.

Less than half (45%) of the respondents said they rated his job performance good or excellent, while a majority (54%) said it was fair or poor.

In August Zogby International polling, his rating was 52% positive, 48% negative. Today’s results mark the first time a majority of likely voters have given the president an unfavorable job performance rating since he took office.

Bush Job Performance Positive % Negative %

September 2003 45% 54%

August 2003 52% 48%

July 2003 53% 46%

March 2003 54% 45%

September 2002 64% 36%

September 2001 82% 17%

August 2001 50% 49%

January 2001 42% 36%

[mrweb]

That's one big shift to the negative side.

[Dialup Llama]

>That's one big shift to the negative side.

Especially when you add the categories FAIR and poor to the negative side. Zogby polls according to his own agenda.

[dead]

I read that Rove's plan was to let Bush spend August at the ranch, and let the Democrats knock themselves silly slamming him.

The poll numbers would drop, the Dems would use up all their best ammo, then Bush could come out swinging, with room to surge in the polls.

The rope-a-dope strategy.

Well, Stage I, dropping polls, is complete. Now let's see if Stage II is as successful. That's the trickier part.

[Brian S]

Bush Numbers Hit New Low; Dean Tops List of Democratic Presidential Contenders, New Zogby America Poll Reveals

President George W. Bush’s job performance ratings have reached the lowest point since his pre-Inauguration days, continuing a steady decline since a post-9/11 peak, according to a new Zogby America poll of 1,013 likely voters conducted September 3-5.

Less than half (45%) of the respondents said they rated his job performance good or excellent, while a majority (54%) said it was fair or poor.  In August Zogby International polling, his rating was 52% positive, 48% negative.  Today’s results mark the first time a majority of likely voters have given the president an unfavorable job performance rating since he took office.

Bush Job Performance	Positive %	Negative %
September 2003	45	54
August 2003	52	48
July 2003	53	46
March 2003	54	45
September 2002	64	36
September 2001	82	17
August 2001	50	49
January 2001	42	36

   

A majority (52%) said it’s time for someone new in the White House, while just two in five (40%) said the president deserves to be re-elected.  Last month, 45% said re-election was in order, and 48% said it was time for someone new.

A like number (52%) said the country is heading in the wrong direction, while 40% said it is the right direction.

Overall opinion of President Bush has also slipped to 54% favorable – 45% unfavorable, compared to August polling which indicated 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable.

Just two in five (40%) said they would choose Bush if the election were held today, while 47% said they would elect a Democratic candidate.  In August polling, respondents were split (43% each) over President Bush or any Democratic challenger.

In the same poll, likely Democratic primary voters give a plurality of their support to former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean (16%), whose campaign has been gathering support in recent polling.  He is followed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (13%), Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (12%), and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (8%).  No other candidate polled more than 3%. 

Nearly two-thirds (63%) of the likely Democratic primary voters said it is somewhat or very likely that President Bush will be re-elected in November 2004, regardless of how they intend to vote.

The Zogby America poll involved 1,013 likely voters selected randomly from throughout the 48 contiguous states using listed residential telephone numbers.  Polling was conducted from Zogby International’s Call Center in Utica, NY.  The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2%. The Democratic candidates’ portion of the poll involved 507 respondents, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

[HitmanLV]

Better he bottoms out now rather than a year from now. Keep the faith!

[dead]

Good point. I vote for politicians I think are "Fair" all the time.

The majority of the GOP is "fair."

In fact, I'd probably only rate Bush as "fair" and I'm going to vote for him.

Ronald Reagan was "excellent" and they don't make Ronald Reagans anymore.

[dogbyte12]

Zogby's methods are consistent. You can judge his methodology, but when he was putting out 82% positive 17% negative right after 9-11, he was using the same 4 categories.

I am amused by both the poll absolutests, and the poll denial types. It is a snap shot. It is 14 months til the election. This poll was taken just after the decision to go to the UN, and during the bad job numbers being released just as people were answering the survey. It's just for today.

This poll could be a good thing. Complacency is not a virtue. People are upset about jobs and Phase IV of Iraqi Freedom. Job numbers will change, Iraq will hopefully settle down. There are 14 months to go, but Bush can be vulnerable if those two issues aren't addressed. That is what should be taken from this "snapshot".

[veronica]

Sorry, but Zogby's poll results are just too different from the others for me take them seriously. Especially since Zogby's brother is such a pro-Arab shill.

[LS]

Good comments. The fact is, as much as we would like our guy to be at 80% all the time, it ain't gonna happen. Every QB throws some incompletions. The time to do it is in the 2nd quarter or 3d quarter, not the 4th.

In 2000, I think we got overconfident going into that last week given Gore's terrible performance. . . then that DUI came out. I don't think Bush is going to even open the door a crack this time.

[Dane]

You can judge his methodology, but when he was putting out 82% positive 17% negative right after 9-11, he was using the same 4 categories

IMO, I think putting fair as a negative is misleading. You would get a better result with good or bad.

It gives the pollee an out and not answer the question.

[G.Mason]

"A majority (52%) said it’s time for someone new in the White House........"

Of that 52%, 522.66 said they had applied for an intern position and were never contacted.

[Hank Rearden]

Screw the poll - where's that smaller, limited government we were promised when the Republicrats took over?

Oh. It's a Bigger, Dumber Government. I'm shocked.

[veronica]

Foreign Affairs Aiding Bush Job Rating - GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

Rated most positively on terrorism

PRINCETON, NJ -- "President Bush's job rating has settled down into the high 50s and low 60s as the rally effect that resulted from the Iraq war has faded. Bush's most recent job rating of 59% is slightly above Gallup's historical average approval rating of 56% for all presidents since Harry Truman, but is also below Bush's term average of 68%. For most of his presidency, Bush has been rated much more highly for his handling of foreign affairs than for his handling of domestic issues such as the economy, and a recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows the trend continuing. Bush receives high marks on terrorism, Iraq, and foreign affairs, but lower marks for several domestic issues. The poll also finds that a majority of Americans say they are more likely to vote for Bush than the generic Democratic candidate in 2004.

The poll, conducted Aug. 25-26, asked Americans to rate the job Bush is doing in each of nine issue areas, including three international and six domestic issues. Bush gets the highest marks for his handling of terrorism, with 66% approving of him in this area. Interestingly, this is the only issue area in which Bush receives a substantially higher approval rating than his 59% overall job rating. SNIP-

Majority Support Bush Re-Election Effort

Despite several negative numbers, Bush still does well when Americans are asked to indicate whether they are more likely to vote for Bush or for the generic Democratic candidate for president in 2004. The latest poll shows 51% of registered voters saying Bush, and 39% saying the Democrat. Since the war with Iraq began, support for Bush on this question has ranged from 46% to 51% among registered voters, while support for the Democrat has hovered between 36% and 42%. The data may suggest the terrorism issue, on which he is rated most highly, is propping up Bush's job approval ratings and re-election prospects."

[PoisedWoman]

Especially when you add the categories FAIR and poor to the negative side.

Good point. But "fair" indicates, IMHO, a voter who could go either way depending upon what the opposing candidate offers, which side of bed he got out of election day, and whether he's motivated to go to the polls at all. Polling at this juncture is really inexact but useful to show Rove where we need work.

[Tarl]

The other thing to remember is no Democrat has been identified as his opponent, its far from certain that it will even be one of these nine.
Once the smoke from the opposition clears and we see the enemy for who they are, the real campaigning will begin and the President will identify what platform he'll be trying to get re-elected on.
The real threats are in our midst and if his base can stir themselves, we can address the attacks on our culture and beliefs by voting with our conscience.

[Sabertooth]

Zogby's methods are consistent. You can judge his methodology, but when he was putting out 82% positive 17% negative right after 9-11, he was using the same 4 categories.

Exactly. He's showing a drop relative to a baseline established by his own numbers.

Even if his numbers for Bush are 5% to 10% lower than other polls show, they've followed similar curves over time.

[BlackRazor]

Especially when you add the categories FAIR and poor to the negative side. Zogby polls according to his own agenda.

The important thing is the trend. As long as the methodology is consistent between polls, it's measuring a real downward trend relative to previous polls.

In any event, Zogby has lumped fair and poor in the negative column since long before Bush was president, so that fact alone doesn't prove any agenda on his part. Not that I'm a big fan of Zogby, but I personally don't have a problem counting fair and poor as negative, as long as you're consistent about it.

[Brices Crossroads]

Even these numbers are not that bad. If my memory serves, Reagan had about the same approval rating (the Country was just coming out of the 1981-2 recession)as Bush has now. The Democrats obligingly nominated a Northern liberal, and the Gipper came within a couple thousand votes of a 50-state sweep.

[varon]

Dean Tops List of Democratic Presidential Contenders

This is good news because if Hillary tries to jump into the fracas directly or through the back door, Dean, not being one to mind his manners, will tear Hillary's doublewide a new door.

[Dan from Michigan]

I'll say the same thing I said when Bush had the 80% positive ratings.

It doesn't matter right now, and the only polls that matter are the 50 states(and DC) on election day.