NEW FIELD POLL ON CA RECALL

Drudge Report ^ | Sept 9, 2003 | Field Poll

[RobFromGa]

Field poll to be released Tuesday:

YES on Recall 55% NO on Recall 40%

Alternative candidates: Bustamante 30% Schwarzenegger 25% McClintock 13% Ueberoth 7% Others in single digit

The Field poll then asked the ballot without McClintock

Bustamante 31% Schwarzenegger 33%

[cajungirl]

McClintock is a good unelectable man. He ought to drop out. But if he doesn't, the pubs seem determined to bite one another's tails while Cruz gets in. I still wonder even tho it enrages people here, how long will it take to get California out of the sewer and can a pub reasonably stay in office long enough to do it, and will he have support of a majority of voters and legislature. Is it dooable?

[StriperSniper]

I prefer to navigate by bouys. If you start at the Battery, head SSW at 210deg. for 4 nautical miles, hang a starboard at the red '24' can, pass the KV and take the Kill to Shooters Island. Hang another starboard(heading now 20deg. NNE for 2 1/4 naut. miles. Take your launch(unless you have a shallow draft vessel) into shore to the storm drain, climb bluff. I'm the green house on your left with the American flag and the anchor on the patio. ;-)

[South40]

And those in the Rat camp that want to foster that belief, IMHO....

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein

[Momaw Nadon]

Watching this recall election is like watching a train wreck in slow motion.

Bustamante will win if both Schwarzenegger and McClintock remain in the race.

One of those two Republicans must drop out of the race.

Ueberoth needs to drop out. He has no chance of winning, and is siphoning off votes that could be going to either McClintock or Schwarzenegger.

It's painful to see the infighting going on now between supporters of Schwarzenegger and McClintock.

This current infighting will seem like a love-in at tea time when the day comes that members of Free Republic will be pointing fingers at each other about who is responsible for the MEChAs controlling California.

Does nobody else see this coming?

Will Republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

I've been cringing for a while now.

[KQQL]

08/15/2003 Field Poll

The Field Poll says the recall is ahead
58-37 among likely voters
57-34 among all registered voters.

Bustamante 25%
Schwarzenegger 22%
McClintock 9%
Simon 8%
Ueberoth 5%
Arianna 4%
Camejo 2%

VS.

09/09/2003 Filed Poll

YES on Recall 55% NO on Recall 40%

Bustamante 30% ( +5%)
Schwarzenegger 22% (+3%)
McClintock 13% (+4%)
Simon 8% (Left the race)
Ueberoth 7% (+2%)
Arianna 4% (?%)
Camejo 2% (?%)

[ambrose]

Won't know if we're comparing apples to apples until we find out whether the leaked numbers today are from registered or likely voters...

[EllaMinnow]

look at post 73. David Dreier is leaking poll numbers again

FOX News reported those numbers an hour before Drudge or Dreier.

[NYC Republican]

He has no traction; he has no money; he has no chance

On another thread, someone compared some of these anti-Arnold comments with 5 year old kids playing a board game, and when they didn't like the rules or the way the outcome was shaping up, they would just knock over all of the game pieces.

Very analogous to what's happening here. If they can't have McClintock, they'll go for Bustamante. Amazing. The "Circular Firing Line" always amazes me.

[B Knotts]

Obviously, they got them from Dreier.

[Tamzee]

I've heard it does skew left, at least during the campaigns and then gets more accurate right before the election...

[alwaysconservative]

Exactly! I just wish that some people here would realize that to have the authority to FIX the financial mess, you have to get elected first! And 10-15% (or Ueberroth's 9%)is just NOT going to cut it against the Davis-Bustamante machine.

[Feiny]

Great post & I agree entirely. I am supporting Tom, but if the numbers stay this way...I will vote for Arnold. I want to vote for the best man, but refuse to allow Bustamove to get elected.

[KQQL]

08-15-2003 field poll link


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A712-2003Aug15.html

[HitmanLV]

The Field poll then asked the ballot without McClintock

Bustamante 31% Schwarzenegger 33%

I bet without Uberroth is will be 35-31 or 36-31, making it a much easier night!

[RobFromGa]

I think the McClintock is in to make sure that all the dirt on Arnold is outed, and to make sure that Arnold makes fiscally responsible platform decisions.

At the last minute I hope that Tom will give Arnold the nod if it is clear that staying in the race will elect Busty.

But, with the absentee issue, I hope he has the time to wait. If he stays in to the end, I don't get it unless he can win.

[alwaysconservative]

I understand that most of Ueberroth's voters would go to Arnold if Ueberroth dropped out, because he also is considered "socially liberal". These, and the great middle, would go for Arnold but not for Tom.

[Dave S]

The Survey-USA poll taken Aug. 25th (the most recent poll before this Field Poll) showed that the recall was winning with 65%. So, yes, it looks like support for the recall is slipping, if one can believe the Field Poll.

I wouldnt worry too much about comparing different polls. They use different techniques and they make different assumptions about who is going to vote. Just look at the trend within each poll. The Field poll and Survey USA poll should be giving you the same conclusion unless they are very close and expected turnout is biasing the results.

[ambrose]

SurveyUSA comes out tomorrow. They were the only ones to call Oklahoma (a huge upset win by Brad Henry) in 2002, so I still pay attention to their numbers even when they are in conflict with all the other polls.

[alwaysconservative]

Wasn't the SurveyUSA the poll that had Arnold the highest, like around 45%?

[Dave S]

Where is this big McClintock surge that I keep hearing is about to happen. McClintock himself last week said that he had gone from an asterisk to 13% in a week or so and he expected to be over 20% by this week. Guess he found out it takes more than hot air and expectations to rise.