Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[Sam Cree]

Where in Maryland are you? Good luck to you.

[Centurion2000]

The ones that scare me are the yellow and light blue lines...I've never seen a hurricane path like that. With that angle and the Chesapeake Bay there, she could smack Norfolk/Virginia Beach et al, DC, and Baltimore while still a hurricane

That's the way she's coming .... bet on it. DC is in the path of this leviathan.

[doug from upland]

It is a little late for this, but my company manufactures and installs the world's state of the art window film for bomb blast protection. We recently had a team do a job in Baghdad for a news organization.

It is also effective in hurricanes. With 7-mil optically clear film, we are able to sustain a 9-lb spherical ball at 50 mph and not allow penetration of the envelope.

[Heatseeker]

Denton Maryland - near the center of the Delmarva Peninsula. Close to a river (Choptank) but high enough that I think I'm safe from the storm surge.

For me personally, the wind is the worrisome part - I have 2 old, very tall trees right next to the house.

[nutmeg]

What an interesting story! (#180)

[Sam Cree]

Yeah, trees are very dangerous in hurricanes, especially tall old ones. My houes barely got missed by a couple last time around. Thinking about it makes me shudder.

Chances are the surge will go right up the river.

[Orion78]

Sea Surface Temperatures

[Heatseeker]

Yeah, not good - I read somewhere that storms of this size can push warmer water ahead of them (storm surge?) and the map shows the Chesapeake Bay area would be vulnerable to that.

If that doesn't happen though, the storm could weaken just as it hits the mouth of the Bay. That's one hope.

[Orion78]

[ForOurFuture]

I'm a student at Maryland in College Park. Care to give any odds on whether I'll miss any classes this week? LOL!

I'm not sure what to make of this. How much damage can 100 MPH winds do? Aren't hurricanes supposed to weaken significantly if/when they get this far north? I have family in Caroline County. Should I really advise them to evacuate?

[mikegi]

On the other hand, if it tracks up the Bay, and especially if it stays anywhere near a Category 4/5 (it'll probably weaken at least a little)...

The hurricane looks like it is weakening somewhat. The latest satellite images show the eye has become elongated and there's a slot of dry air coming into the circulation (NW side). Unfortunately, the latest image also shows a reintensification of the bands on either side of the dry slot.

[ForOurFuture]

See 990.

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

That temperature map looks rather ominous, based on the forecast track. Looks like 80 degree water temps right up to the mouth of the Chesapeake. Lacking any significant wind shear or dry air infiltration, it seems to me the storm could stay pretty strong right up until landfall. I'm no expert, can anyone out there comment on this?

[Orion78]

I was thinking the same thing. I will probably weaken just before it hits land, if the models on where it makes landfall are correct. From everything I've read though, it isn't expect to really weaken any until then, and since it is still a category 5 that could mean big trouble. It may end up being a category 4 when it hits. I guess we just have to wait a few days and hope for the best.

[Heatseeker]

As for evacuation, it depends on where they are in relation to a body of water (Choptank River for example) and how sturdy their home is.

I think you're OK at UMCP; even the high-rise dorms are build pretty well (I'm an alum). But yeah, I'm betting you'll definitely miss a class or two. :)

Check the college web site and the campus radio station frequently.

[Heatseeker]

ForOurFuture, one more thing - if your relatives are in Federalsburg, they probably need to evacuate. That town is notorious for rapid and large-scale flooding.

BTW, I should probably start posting disclaimers - "I am only a fake expert - please consult the real thing."

[Orion78]

Tropical WTNT03 Discussion VALID Mon Sep 15 06:36:14 2003

WTNT43 KNHC 150230

TCDAT3

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRMED 135-KNOT SURFACE WINDS AT 18Z AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MISSION AT 06Z...SO THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 135 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TODAY BUT A LARGE WELL-DEFINED IMPRESSIVE EYE PERSISTS AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SYMMETRY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...IT HAS REMAINED THE SAME FOR OVER 24 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CLOSELY CLUSTERED AND SHOWING A LANDFALL IN JUST UNDER 96 HOURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SCENARIO CONSISTS OF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SLOW ISABELS FORWARD SPEED WHILE IT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH ISABEL MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5.

ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...SO ISABEL IS LIKELY TO STILL BE QUITE DANGEROUS AT LANDFALL. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO OFFICIAL 4-DAY TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 275 MILES. WE INTEND THAT THE ISABEL FORECASTS WILL BE MORE ACCURATE...BUT INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

[Orion78]

http://www.srcc.lsu.edu/OEP/hurr_scale.html

[Sam Cree]

From the TPC:

ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...SO ISABEL IS LIKELY TO STILL BE QUITE DANGEROUS AT LANDFALL. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO OFFICIAL 4-DAY TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 275 MILES. WE INTEND THAT THE ISABEL FORECASTS WILL BE MORE
ACCURATE...BUT INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 24.5N 68.3W 135 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 25.2N 69.5W 135 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 26.2N 70.6W 130 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 27.6N 71.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 28.9N 72.1W 120 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 32.8N 74.2W 115 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 38.3N 76.8W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z 45.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL

[Heatseeker]

Yup. If I had to bet now, I'd say it'll be a strong Cat3 when it goes by me. but if the warmer water moves a bit north...