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HURRICANE WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR, NC TO NC/VIRGINIA STATE LINE AT 11 P.M. ADVISORY
National Hurricane Center, Miami ^ | Sept. 16, 2003 | National Hurricane Center, Miami

Posted on 09/16/2003 7:51:09 PM PDT by varina davis

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 44

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2003

...Isabel heading for the mid-Atlantic U.S. Coast...

at 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina northward to the North Carolina/Virginia state line including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the North Carolina/Virginia state line northward to Chincoteague Virginia including Chesapeake Bay and the tidal Potomac.

<,p>A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cape Fear southward to Little River Inlet South Carolina.

A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Chincoteague to Little Egg Inlet New Jersey...and from south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 28.5 north...longitude 71.7 west or about 520 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 145 miles from the center ...And tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by USAF reconnaissance aircraft is 957 mb...28.26 inches. Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches are likely along the path of the hurricane. Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are being experienced along portions of the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. These conditions will also continue over portions of the Bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...28.5 N... 71.7 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 957 mb. For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Lawrence


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: advisory; cape; fear; hurricane; hurricaneisabel; warning
Hurricane watches to the south and north of the warnings.
1 posted on 09/16/2003 7:51:11 PM PDT by varina davis
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To: varina davis
I'm beginning to think that the waiting and speculating is worse than the actual storm.
2 posted on 09/16/2003 7:54:12 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: Corin Stormhands
I'm beginning to think that the waiting and speculating is worse than the actual storm.

Yes. That's what I like about earthquakes.
3 posted on 09/16/2003 7:57:05 PM PDT by ScuzzyTerminator
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To: Corin Stormhands
I'm beginning to think that the waiting and speculating is worse than the actual storm.

Unless, of course, you actually happen to be hit by it.

4 posted on 09/16/2003 8:03:01 PM PDT by steveegg (I have one thing to say to the big spenders; BLIZZARD OF RECALL TOUR!)
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To: Corin Stormhands
I'm beginning to think that the waiting and speculating is worse than the actual storm.

Well, not really. I went through one in the late 70's on my boat out in the Atlantic (to avoid being smashed against the docks)--absolutely awesome and terrifying.

5 posted on 09/16/2003 8:03:25 PM PDT by Rudder
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To: steveegg
Unless, of course, you actually happen to be hit by it.

Heh...current tracking has it going right across my back deck...

6 posted on 09/16/2003 8:04:04 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: Corin Stormhands
Heh...current tracking has it going right across my back deck...

Ouch. Stay safe.

7 posted on 09/16/2003 8:08:10 PM PDT by steveegg (I have one thing to say to the big spenders; BLIZZARD OF RECALL TOUR!)
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To: Corin Stormhands
Can we elect you to be the official FR photographer for the storm???
8 posted on 09/16/2003 8:09:55 PM PDT by netmilsmom (I may hide, but I never leave!)
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To: Corin Stormhands
Got a handy mast and some lashing material? :-)
9 posted on 09/16/2003 8:10:41 PM PDT by Ramius
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To: Corin Stormhands
Hope you remembered to weather proof your deck this year ;)

Stay safe.

10 posted on 09/16/2003 8:11:40 PM PDT by dogbyte12
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To: netmilsmom
Will you buy me a digital camera?
11 posted on 09/16/2003 8:15:13 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: dogbyte12
Heh...we're in the midst of finishing up a claim for about $10,000 for a leak in an upstairs bathroom...ruined our piano. Otherwise I'd kinda hope for a new deck...

I can hear my premiums going up already.
12 posted on 09/16/2003 8:17:25 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: Corin Stormhands
er...it leaked down on the piano...the piano was not in the bathroom...
13 posted on 09/16/2003 8:17:53 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: Corin Stormhands
If you survive ;-)!
14 posted on 09/16/2003 8:18:47 PM PDT by netmilsmom (I may hide, but I never leave!)
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To: varina davis
This is all very interesting...I've been through Hugo, Fran, Bertha, and one more that I can't recall... Hugo was the first, and I rode that one out in Charleston...after that the rest seemed kinda weak...
15 posted on 09/16/2003 8:19:39 PM PDT by Blue Scourge ("If a man hasn't found something he is willing to die for he is not fit to live"- M. Luther King Jr.)
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To: varina davis
The storm looks like a not-so-tightly coiled snake at this point; whatta strange sight.


16 posted on 09/16/2003 8:20:23 PM PDT by Nexus
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To: Corin Stormhands
I'm beginning to think that the waiting and speculating is worse than the actual storm.

I predict that schools in the DC area will be closed Thursday and Friday.

Milk, bread, and toilet paper will disappear from store shelves by noon Wednesday.

17 posted on 09/16/2003 8:20:52 PM PDT by rllngrk33 (Liberals are guilty of everything they accuse Conservatives of.)
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To: Corin Stormhands
>>er...it leaked down on the piano...the piano was not in the bathroom...<<

Gee, I thought what a fun house you must have. Tinkling the keys while...oh never mind.


18 posted on 09/16/2003 8:20:55 PM PDT by netmilsmom (I may hide, but I never leave!)
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To: rllngrk33
I live in Manassas , got the staples, will most likly get lots of rain here
19 posted on 09/16/2003 8:23:18 PM PDT by LynnHam
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To: varina davis
BTW, a bit off the topic. But during Hugo I slept through the first half upstairs, during the eye they woke me and made me stay downstairs. Well, not 10 minutes into the backhalf of it 3 trees fell onto the house, one branch went through the roof and pierced the bed I was/would have been sleeping in right in the middle. And people wonder sometimes why I believe in God...
20 posted on 09/16/2003 8:24:17 PM PDT by Blue Scourge ("If a man hasn't found something he is willing to die for he is not fit to live"- M. Luther King Jr.)
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To: Corin Stormhands
er...it leaked down on the piano...the piano was not in the bathroom...

Too late.
I'm already plagued with an image of someone playing the piano while seated on the "throne".
Dam*ed overactive imagination.
Now I'm gonna have nightmares tonight.
Thanks a lot. It's all YOUR fault.

21 posted on 09/16/2003 8:27:27 PM PDT by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: rllngrk33
Yeah, tracking I just saw has it going over DC as well.

Odd thing is William and Mary has closed for tomorrow. This thing isn't making landfall in North Carolina for 36 hours...

22 posted on 09/16/2003 8:33:53 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: Blue Scourge
That's not off topic. Wife and I had that discussion tonite that during the worst of the storm, none of us will be upstairs.
23 posted on 09/16/2003 8:34:46 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: varina davis
Oh, goody. Looks like the track has it going right over Richmond now. Oh well, I always said that this town needs an enema...
24 posted on 09/16/2003 8:36:44 PM PDT by Charles H. (The_r0nin) (The best thing about the End of the World is how many a**holes it'll eliminate...)
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To: All
If you have Microsoft Flight Simulator 2004, here is something very interesting to try. Set your flight with the actual weather with the 15 min automatic updates. Grab you a Cessna 172 in Wilmington, NC and fly SE until you hit Issy. It is actually out there on the computer simulation. Set your time to day light so you can see what you are doing. It is nice when you take off but after you fly a while (you have to speed up the simulation) soon you have to climb to over 15,000 feet to get through the muck. Gives you an idea of what the hurricane hunter planes have to do.
25 posted on 09/16/2003 8:38:06 PM PDT by U S Army EOD (Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
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To: Corin Stormhands
Odd thing is William and Mary has closed for tomorrow. This thing isn't making landfall in North Carolina for 36 hours...

VA Closed all stae colleges and Universities in the Tidewater area for tomorrow thru Friday. ODU and CNU also closed the dorms...I guess the kids are on their own. Hope they all ahve someplace to go.

26 posted on 09/16/2003 8:38:33 PM PDT by pgkdan
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To: pgkdan
Really? Maybe they did that so kids could get out of town? I hadn't heard they closed all the schools.
27 posted on 09/16/2003 8:41:00 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands (www.wardsmythe.com)
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To: Rudder
I rode out one (Force 12 by the BBC) for 18 hours in a 36 ft sailboat in October 1977. I was in the Bay of Biscay about 200 miles north of Cape Finnestere. You could have bought my boat that night from me for about a dollar.
28 posted on 09/16/2003 8:41:03 PM PDT by U S Army EOD (Feeling my age, but wanting to feel older)
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To: pgkdan
Salisbury U is closed Thurs and Fri.
29 posted on 09/16/2003 8:41:43 PM PDT by biss5577
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To: Nexus
24 HOURS OF MOVEMENT

03 15 UTC 9-16-03



03 15 UTC 9-17-03 (LATEST POSITION)


30 posted on 09/16/2003 8:45:51 PM PDT by Logical Extinction (Reality is often much more frightening than fiction...)
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