*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*

National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

[TheBigB]

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.

[Knight Templar]

Back when Simon lost the Governor's race. Everyone kept saying if Simon had only energized his base, (us) he would of won. Now everyone, including Hugh, say McClintock can't
win, even if Arnold is not in the race. Well McClintock would definitely energize the base. So wouldn't he win. Which is it boys. And girls.

[TheBigB]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/975208/posts

[BibChr]

"C'n you say 'DELUSIONAL'?"

"I knew you could!"

Dan

[Cicero]

Probably it would depend whether Arnold pulled out gracefully, threw his support to McClintock, and campaigned for him.

Frankly, I don't think that's likely. Arnold is the designated spoiler. Parsky sabotaged the last election, and Arnold will sabotage this one. And the party is still trying to clean up the mess Pete Wilson left behind him.

[TheBigB]

Okay, see, follow me closely...down near the end of the post, right just above the words "From the beginning", there are these words... But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

I did something called logical thinking. Now, follow me more, If this poll is sound (and I'm not saying it is), then the numbers say that if Arnold were not in the race, that McClintock would be ahead of Cruz 42%-40%. When I used the word "could" in the title, that means that it MIGHT happen...it's within the realm of possibility for McClintock to win.

Does that clear things up?

[onyx]

A delusional post is directly below yours.

[montag813]

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

This is a complete falsehood. Who are these buffoons?

Our Monday tracking polls show that in a head-to-head, McClintock loses by 12%. The internal Arnold and Bustamante polls shows similar results.

[NYC Republican]

Does that clear things up?

OK, I see where you got it, but I thought there were rules against parsing pieces of the story and placing it as the title. You can see how it can easily be manipulated by taking things out of context. Not that you've done that here, but it would set a bad precedent.

[EggsAckley]

2003 SurveyUSA Election Polls

.........................
CA Governor Recall
9/23/2003

Remove Davis - 57%
Keep Davis - 42%
Undecided - 1%

Data Collected - 9/19/03 - 9/22/03
Geography - State of California
Universe - 827 Certain Voters
Margin of Error - 3.5%

Client
KABC-TV Los Angeles
KGTV-TV San Diego
KPIX-TV San Francisco
KXTV-TV Sacramento

......................
CA Governor Replacement
9/23/2003

Schwarzenegger (R) - 39%
Bustamante (D) - 32%
McClintock (R) - 18%
Huffington (I) - 4%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 4%
Data Collected - 9/19/03 - 9/22/03
Geography - State of California
Universe - 789 Certain Voters
Margin of Error - 3.6%

Client
KABC-TV Los Angeles
KGTV-TV San Diego
KPIX-TV San Francisco
KXTV-TV Sacramento

[Roscoe]

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

No, no!!! Arnold's a movie star!!! Tom's lips aren't thick enough!!!

[BlackRazor]

BUT it's only a POST/letter to the editor, a response on the web, with unverifiable information, NOT even a legitimate letter to the editor, just a post, that anyone can post.

I could post to the same site that I saw a poll, where Arnold is leading Bustamante by 30 % points, then post it here on FR.

Actually, you couldn't, and no, not just anyone could post. It's true, The Corner is a blog, but the only people with access to post there are staff members and contributors to National Review Online.

[TheAngryClam]

Hugh is the one supporting Arnold.

[DodgeRam]

Tell us what your tracking polls are saying Thursday & Friday. I'd be curious to see if some of the undecideds start to get off the fence.

[FairOpinion]

So how come we never heard of the poll they are referring to, before?

[BlackRazor]

And by contributors, I mean people who write for the publication. Not those who donate money to them.

[FairOpinion]

Then why did the Orange County Lincoln Club endorse Schwarzenegger?

[BlackRazor]

So how come we never heard of the poll they are referring to, before?

Hey, I'm not vouching for the validity of the poll or its methodology. I'd need to see the internals and know something about the organizations that conducted and sponsored it. I'm just pointing out that the information was posted by something more than just some random people.

[VOA]

Bet on a 2% margin of victory vs. a 7% margin of victory?

I suspect that even Tom McClintock, with his grasp of the meanings of numbers,
realizes this sounds like an advertizement from a casino.

[FairOpinion]

"Who is the Lincoln Club of Orange County? "

---

It is a group of wealthy,influential conservative Republicans.

They endorsed Schwarzenegger some time ago and called for McClintock to pull out of the race -- quite some time ago, it doesn't tally with the claim of the results of this poll, which was never mentioned anywhere else, nor was any source given in this post.

http://www.lincolnclub.com/history.htm

The Lincoln Club is the largest and most active political club in the United States. Its has shaped California and national politics for almost forty years. Many of southern California's most successful business leaders are among its members.

[TheBigB]

I'm not in CA, so my opinion is simply that. But I'd enjoy seeing either one win. At this point, Arnold is better positioned...but IF this is a valid poll, maybe there's some momentum gathering for Tom. I don't know. I want to see the numbers after today's debate.