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Posted on 09/28/2003 1:40:25 PM PDT by ambrose
Republicans are in full panic mode that McClintock will tilt the election to Bustamante.
Democrats are in full panic mode that Bustamante is dead in the water.
Polls show Davis is way behind and maybe even losing ground.
Folks, it's over. Gray Davis is dead, burnt, ash of toast. Arnold Schwarzenegger is the new governor. And Tom McClintock is the new conservative hero.
Everybody had been focussed on the fact that two major Republicans are "splitting" their party's vote, thereby making it possible for Cruz Bustamante to win with a weak plurality. This is a very superficial, static analysis which is based on an improper application of historical results. Democrats are the dominant political party in California, so it seems logical that it would take a united Republican front to have even an outside chance of defeating the Democrat for Governor.
But this is the antithesis of a normal, historically-typical election. This is a "throw the bums out" election, and the people who vote are going to skew heavily anti-politician and anti-government. Let's look at what this means.
Around a million absentee ballots have been cast so far, and Republicans worry that the absentee votes cast for McClintock are lost forever, even if he were to suddenly withdraw from the race and throw his support to Schwarzenegger (which won't happen). True, but so what? Even in a normal election the early absentee ballots run more Republican and conservative than the election day voting. This election will accentuate that. The huge burst of absentee balloting is not coming from people who are eager to keep Gray Davis in office or who are fans of Cruz Bustamante. It is coming from people who can't wait to overturn the status quo.
So at 8:10 pm on October 7th, when the various county registrars release the early absentee vote counts, those numbers will show Davis going down by a huge margin. They will also show Schwarzenegger with a comfortable lead over Bustamante, and Tom McClintock with 10% to 15% of the vote.
In order for Davis or Bustamante to overcome that initial handicap, each would have to win in the election-day voting, and win by more than just the skins of their teeth. But if the election was close enough on election day for Bustamante to have a chance, then a large fraction of McClintock's supporters would hold their noses and vote for Arnold, which would easily put him over the top.
It's a lose-lose situation for both Davis and Bustamante. All those Republicans out there who have worked themselves into a state of shear terror have done so for nothing. As the results are reported on election night, we may see the percentage gap narrowing on the recall question and between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante, but the absolute margin of votes will continually increase. Even that might not be true; the percentage gap could also widen, and this could turn into a runaway landslide.
Indeed, if other polls in the coming few days mirror today's USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll, the pressure will abate for McClintock supporters to vote for Arnold to avoid Bustamante. If it seems certain that Arnold will win big, some of his reluctant conservative supporters may find it safe to swing back to Tom.
The news media needs conflict and it needs a story theme. If Davis' ouster and Arnold's victory is seen as a done deal, they'll have to turn elsewhere to find enough drama.
The surprise, last-minute election news frenzy may turn out out to be the question of whether Tom McClintock beats out Cruz Bustamante for second place.
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Wishful thinking and totally erroneous, destructive logic. The ONLY thing McClintock voters can do is elect Bustamante.
Only those wanting a Bustamante win would encourage McClintock voters further in their delusion, that it's "safe" to vote for McClintock and it wouldn't jeopardize an Arnold win.
Since most absenteed tend to be conservative, there may already be enough of them to hand the victory to Bustamante. There is nothing anyone can do about that, but those who didn't vote yet, better think really hard about their vote, because a vote for McClintock is STILL a vote for Bustamante.
So am I, but keep in mind that the illegals will get their licenses whether or not Boost-yer-taxes wins; you might be assuming a fervency that doesn't exist. And second, illegals might, as a group, be just as apathetic to vote as everyone else.
His carriage turns into a pumpkin on the 7th.
I very much doubt that Tom has thrown his career away. Even in the worst-case scenario, in which Bustamante wins and Tom gets the political blame for it, Tom would probably still win re-election to his State Senate seat next year. I'm in Tom's district, and I am very familiar with the politics of this area. Tom would face a tough Republican primary challenge, but the odds still favor him. After all, he beat his previous Republican challenger (County Supervisor Judy Mikels, who was supported by outgoing State Senator Cathie Wright) by FIFTY percentage points in the 2000 primary. Tom would have money and volunteers from all over California (and all over the nation).
Remember how the unions promised to destroy the career of any prominent Democrat who placed his name on the ballot to replace Davis? Then Bustamante did it anyway. They were all pissed for a day, and then they accepted the inevitable. They lined up behind Bustamante and tried to spin it as a good thing.
The same would happen with Tom. The Republican leadership is applying all kinds of pressure and issuing all kinds of threats to try to force Tom out. It isn't working. After this election, no matter what happens, they will accept the inevitable and (at least on the surface) effect a reconciliation. Tom represents too many Republican voters that other Republicans don't want to write off or tick off too badly.
After Tom wins his primary for State Senator, he'll again be a strong favorite in the general election. It might be closer than usual, but this district is gerrymandered to be a Republican lock.
In 2008, when Tom is term-limited out of the State Senate, he might at that point have no further political career (if he has cost Arnold the recall election). But how is that different than now? He has tried twice for State Controller and lost twice. Prior to this recall election, his odds of winning a third time were not good, especially against a multi-millionaire incumbent in 2006.
On the other hand, if Bustamante loses the recall, there will be no blame or blowback for Tom. Indeed, Arnold will have earned the job instead of having it handed to him by all the other Republicans who were browbeaten into pulling out. Tom will have enormous state-wide name recognition, a huge volunteer and donor list, a solid reputation as a principled conservative who does not bend to pressure or sell out his ideals, and he'll be well-positioned to beat State Controller Westly in 2006.
All politics involves some risk, but Tom understands those risks and stands ready to reap huge rewards even if he does not win the governorship this year.
I'm not so sure about this. My feelings about Tom right now are that I would NEVER support him, win, lose or draw.
But thanks for a really great and succinct post. You make a lot of sense.
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