California: Last ditch effort to save Davis. Bustamante expected to withdraw

California Public Policy Foundation ^ | Oct 1, 200

[John Jorsett]

Lt Gov. Cruz Bustamante is “highly likely” to drop out of the race to replace Gov. Gray Davis tomorrow barring a last minute change of mind, according to a Sacramento source close to the lieutenant governor’s campaign.

As panic over a looming Republican capture of the governor’s office has spread from the Davis camp through the ranks of Democrat elected officials and donors, Bustamante has been subjected to enormous pressure to withdraw his candidacy. Top level Democrats believe Bustamante now has no hope of overtaking Arnold Schwarzenegger on the candidate portion of the ballot, and that he is, in fact, sinking so fast he could finish third, behind both Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock.

Many Democrats now believe their only chance of retaining the governor’s office is to defeat the recall. They hope Bustamante’s withdrawal will convince enough of the 27 to 30 percent of registered Democrats now supporting the recall to change their minds once they see no chance of replacing an ousted Davis with another Democrat.

CPR Online’s Sacramento source said convincing those Democrats to switch would be “difficult but at least conceivably doable,” in contrast to winning with Bustamante, whose campaign the source described as “absolutely dead in the water and sinking faster then the Titantic.”

The lieutenant governor is said to remain concerned about how withdrawing would affect his future: whether he is damaged more by staying in the race and losing badly next Tuesday, or by withdrawing five days before the election, thereby conceding he is too weak to win.

CPR Online’s source said Bustamante is notoriously slow to make up his mind about tough decisions. He characterized a Bustamante withdrawal as a “nine out of ten” chance, but said the lieutenant governor could change his mind “as he walks to the podium tomorrow.”

[eureka!]

"Bustamante is a card-carrying nobody who's now running for Governor of California. He isn't going to win, of course, but he can parley this into some kind of cushy job. If he cuts and runs and bails out now, his future prospects for a cushy job decline."

Hope so. Also, Cruz hates Davis who will make history over taking Cruz' parking place. Hehehehe....

[capitan_refugio]

Good morning. A co-worker of mine is going to drop off his absentee at his polling place on Tuesday, oh his way to work. Since this ballot is going to take about 30 seconds (most have only four issues: Recall yes/no, replacement, Prop 53, Prop 54), there will be no waiting in lines.

[capitan_refugio]

Good morning. A co-worker of mine is going to drop off his absentee at his polling place on Tuesday, oh his way to work. Since this ballot is going to take about 30 seconds (most have only four issues: Recall yes/no, replacement, Prop 53, Prop 54), there will be no waiting in lines.

[Reagan Man]

At this point, I think all hope for a McClintock win has just about vanished. Even if Bustamonte pulls out, I doubt McClintock can secure enough votes to win. His best chance of gaining steam died with that last debate. In the subsequent polling data thats come out since that debate, Californian's have indicated they prefer the style of the liberal Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, over the substance of the conservative Republican Tom McClintock. IMO, that doesn't show sound judgment on the part of Golden State voters, but fits the pattern currently prevalient throughout our pop culture driven society.

[aristeides]

Even if McClintock can't win, he can still make a respectable showing. And that could well have political effects.

And with Bustamante's campaign disintegrating, what harm can voting for McClintock do?

[Reagan Man]

>>> ... what harm can voting for McClintock do?

Nothing at all. If I was a Californian, I'd be voting for him. I'm just saying, Californian's have made up their minds and anything short of a political miracle, this election will go to Arnie the liberal.

[Waywardson]

Absolutely the best direct post on this subject.

[ambrose]

I can't remember EVER having had to wait in line to vote..

[ambrose]

Nothing at all. If I was a Californian, I'd be voting for him. I'm just saying, Californian's have made up their minds and anything short of a political miracle, this election will go to Arnie the liberal.

At this point either the recall succeeds with Arnold or we keep Davis. I can't envision any other outcome. That's why the Rats are trying to knock Arnold out at the 11th hour.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

My prediction still holds that Bustamante will pull around 35%. I'll be more than happy to eat crow after the election. That's still my best guess.

No argument. My prediction: Yes on Recall = 55-60% (60-65% without the illegal/dead votes). Arnold = 45-50%), Bustafortheraceeverything = 25-30%, Tom-the-only-conservative-in-the-race = 10-15%. Candidates-for-the-truly-moronic-constituency = 5-20%

[DoughtyOne]

Who knows, you may be dead on. We'll see. Good luck. I like your prediction better than mine. LOL