Skip to comments.The Cooling World (Blast From The Past Archived Newsweek Article Warning About "Global Cooling")
Posted on 10/02/2003 10:21:17 AM PDT by presidio9
click here to read article
"The time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1856 to 2002."
And the following time series are representative of the change in global temperature record across the last 500 thousand years, note the minor uptick(i.e. 1856 to 2002 identified as "global warming") to a median temperature in an overall downtrend for the last 2400 years,
One's trend all depends on the time frame one wants to use to make a political point with.
Figure 1-2 Climate of the last 2400 years
Figure 1-3 Climate of the last 12,000 years
Figure 1-4 Climate of the last 100,000 years
Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice
I have no intention of getting into a broader discussion of "global warming" on this thread. I know you're out there. I have had some distractions in my personal life that have temporarily detracted from my ability to post topics and discuss them fully on FR. This "condition" may persist for a few more weeks. But as time allows, I will be glad to continue discussion on the topic. Just not here, and not now.
See post 22, my reply to ancient_geezer.
Yeah, yeah ... I know. Not 'Global Warming', but I think they'd like/WANT to see this one ...
Unfortunatly, science will never be able to tell us exactly what will happen and when, but it can help gauge the risks. To me, the risks are great and the data sound.
The only thing the global warming alarmism is riding on are cluged up computer models that don't agree with real world measurement and predict neither future not past Climates, nor do those models even agree when compared to each other.
refer: Global Warming Score Card
What risks are there of global warming within the capacity of man to effect a difference?
" There is no dispute at all about the fact that even if punctiliously observed, (the Kyoto Protocol) would have an imperceptible effect on future temperatures -- one-twentieth of a degree by 2050. "
Dr. S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist
Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia,
and former director of the US Weather Satellite Service;
in a Sept. 10, 2001 Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal
Anthropogenic (man-made) Contribution to the "Greenhouse
Effect," expressed as % of Total (water vapor INCLUDED)
Based on concentrations (ppb) adjusted for heat retention characteristics % of All Greenhouse Gases
Water vapor 95.000%
0.001% Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 3.618%
0.117% Methane (CH4) 0.360%
0.066% Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 0.950%
0.047% Misc. gases ( CFC's, etc.) 0.072%
0.047% Total 100.00%
- "(1) correlation does not prove causation, (2) cause must precede effect, and (3) when attempting to evaluate claims of causal relationships between different parameters, it is important to have as much data as possible in order to weed out spurious correlations.
Consider, for example, the study of Fischer et al. (1999), who examined trends of atmospheric CO2 and air temperature derived from Antarctic ice core data that extended back in time a quarter of a million years. Over this extended period, the three most dramatic warming events experienced on earth were those associated with the terminations of the last three ice ages; and for each of these climatic transitions, earth's air temperature rose well in advance of any increase in atmospheric CO2. In fact, the air's CO2 content did not begin to rise until 400 to 1,000 years after the planet began to warm. Such findings have been corroborated by Mudelsee (2001), who examined the leads/lags of atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature over an even longer time period, finding that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lagged behind variations in air temperature by 1,300 to 5,000 years over the past 420,000 years."
- "Other studies periodically demonstrate a complete uncoupling of CO2 and temperature "
- "Considered in their entirety, these several results present a truly chaotic picture with respect to any possible effect that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration may have on global temperature. Clearly, atmospheric CO2 is not the all-important driver of global climate change the climate alarmists make it out to be."
Global warming and global dioxide emission and concentration:
a Granger causality analysis
- "We find, in opposition to previous studies, that there is no evidence of Granger causality from global carbon dioxide emission to global surface temperature. Further, we could not find robust empirical evidence for the causal nexus from global carbon dioxide concentration to global surface temperature."
"Carbon dioxide, the main culprit in the alleged greenhouse-gas warming, is not a "driver" of climate change at all. Indeed, in earlier research Jan Veizer, of the University of Ottawa and one of the co-authors of the GSA Today article, established that rather than forcing climate change, CO2 levels actually lag behind climatic temperatures, suggesting that global warming may cause carbon dioxide rather than the other way around."
"Veizer and Shaviv's greatest contribution is their time scale. They have examined the relationship of cosmic rays, solar activity and CO2, and climate change going back through thousands of major and minor coolings and warmings. They found a strong -- very strong -- correlation between cosmic rays, solar activity and climate change, but almost none between carbon dioxide and global temperature increases."
Indeed just what precise risks at all?
Petition Project: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p357.htm
During the past 2 years, more than 17,100 basic and applied American scientists, two-thirds with advanced degrees, have signed the Global Warming Petition.
"There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate."
Signers of this petition so far include 2,660 physicists, geophysicists, climatologists, meteorologists, oceanographers, and environmental scientists (select this link for a listing of these individuals) who are especially well qualified to evaluate the effects of carbon dioxide on the Earth's atmosphere and climate.
Signers of this petition also include 5,017 scientists whose fields of specialization in chemistry, biochemistry, biology, and other life sciences (select this link for a listing of these individuals) make them especially well qualified to evaluate the effects of carbon dioxide upon the Earth's plant and animal life.
Nearly all of the initial 17,100 scientist signers have technical training suitable for the evaluation of the relevant research data, and many are trained in related fields.
Do you even know what a strawman is?
My father was hospitalized with a serious condition. Give me a break! When I have the time (and I expect it to be sooner than later), I'll load my cannons with all the grape they can handle.
Prayers for your father.
I know better than to kick a man when he's down.
What do you think about the temperature date for the last 400,000 years from the Vostok ice core samples ?
BP = BEFORE PRESENT