Will Evangelicals Sink Romney?

The Atlantic ^ | May 20, 2011 | Ronald Brownstein, political director

[2ndDivisionVet]

Mike Huckabee, judging by the early opinion polls, would have been among the most formidable challengers to Mitt Romney, the putative front-runner for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. But Huckabee's departure from the race, paradoxically, could make it more difficult for Romney to prevail.

The reason is that with Huckabee off the field, the former Baptist minister's core constituency -- the evangelical Christians who represent nearly half of the GOP's primary electorate -- are now back in play for all competitors. If Romney can't defang the resistance he encountered from those voters in 2008, he faces the threat that they will eventually consolidate behind another contender, such as former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, with potentially wider support than Huckabee demonstrated last time. "The risk for Romney is that some other candidate with broader appeal may attract them, someone who could stitch together a majority coalition in a way that Huckabee was not going to do," says veteran GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who is not affiliated with any of the 2012 candidates.

Even many Republicans underestimate the centrality of evangelical voters in the GOP's nominating process. In 2008, self-identified evangelical Christians constituted 44 percent of all Republican presidential primary voters, according to a cumulative analysis of state exit polls by former ABC polling director Gary Langer. Candidates who rely almost entirely on evangelicals -- such as Huckabee, Gary Bauer in 2000, and televangelist Pat Robertson in 1988 -- have never come close to winning the GOP nomination. But evangelicals are plentiful enough that any candidate whom they deem completely unacceptable faces a formidable obstacle -- and not only in the Deep South, where they are most heavily concentrated.

Evangelical Christians represented a majority of 2008 GOP primary voters in 11 of the 29 states in which exit polls were conducted.....

[SoConPubbie]

Since Christ Himself is not running, who do YOU think can win the nomination AND beat 0bama?

Realistically?

Only Palin.

[newzjunkey]

Evangelicals will not support a Mormon. Not Huntsman. Not Romney. Not Hatch. Not even Archuleta.

[Tennessee Nana]

Pro-lifers will sink Romney
Gun owners will sink Romney
conventional marriage advocates will sink Romney
Conservatives will sink Romney
Small government advocates will sink Romney
RomneyCare will sink Romney
The AMNESTY Bill will sink Romney

[alstewartfan]

Yeah, I agree with another poster and think that the best choice among those who have a chance at the nomination is Sarah Palin. Sarah will have to overcome 90% of the GOP establishment, and 95% of the MSM to win it, so at that time she will be an extremely formidable challenger to the anti-Semitic, Marxist Punk. Cordially, Bob

[WalterSkinner]

..to quote the Prime Minister of Israel in a different context: “..it’s not going to happen.”