FIRST-PERSON: From decline to decision

Baptist Press ^ | 06/13/2011 | Ed Stetzer

[SeekAndFind]

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--It is time for the Southern Baptist Convention to move from denial to decision.

It has happened again. The SBC reported membership has declined, again. And, baptisms are at their lowest level in 60 years.

I remember the first time the membership declined, just a few years ago. I pointed out (based on data from LifeWay's now-retired statistician Cliff Tharp) that it was not an aberration, but a pattern. The 50-year membership trend was moving into negative territory.

"Put simply," I wrote in light of 2007 data, "membership may go up next year, but the trend points to the negative. It probably won't go up. But, even if it does, I believe we will have more declining than growing years over the next decade. Unless the trend changes, membership has peaked."

How did we respond? I remember how strongly these observations were denied. A segment of the SBC seemed to think closing our eyes or disputing the data would change our reality.

In 2008 when we were again faced with the data of a continuing trend, I noted, "Today we are facing a set of numbers to which we are not accustomed.... This year, I believe that our tipping point continues to tip. Unless things change, we are about to enter a time when we grow accustomed to decline and think back to the good ol' days of growth."

Following that report, there was a little less denial. Actually, more spoke up. Chuck Kelley, president of New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary, warned that Southern Baptists are in danger of entering a deep decline with all the accompanying problems.

Subsequently, the data for 2009 revealed no reversal.

Now, we can see four years in a row of statistics confirming a long-term trend of membership decline in the SBC. It is what it is.

It is time for the SBC to move from denial to decision. I am only echoing what others have said before: It is time for change in the SBC. But change, just for the sake of change, is not enough. We must ask, "What kind of change do we need?"

For me, as a missiologist and denominational servant, change needs to come in several places.

A need for Missio Dei

First, we need a renewed passion for churches to live on mission. We need to see the church not simply as an institution but as an agent of God's Kingdom-mission. Increasingly, people must recognize the church is a missionary body with a divine call to be a sign and instrument of God's Kingdom. In short, God is a sending God and we are a sent people.

A need for diversity

Second, we need a greater emphasis on ethnic diversity. We've been so Southern and so white for so long that the annual meetings look like a loaf of Wonder Bread. Our ideas of "reaching out" are less impressive than striving to create an intentionally multicultural family that reflects the population of heaven. Simply put, denominations will not embrace ethnic leaders without a plan and strategy to do so. The SBC Executive Committee is pressing in on this issue, and it is about time.

A need for a new generation

Third, we must have a plan to raise up a new generation, not just of leaders, but young people throughout the SBC. The oldest generation may indeed be the "Greatest," but it must not be our last. The SBC will not last forever based solely on the presence of its elder statesmen and women. Mentoring, where the younger learns from the elder, and reverse mentoring, where the elder learns from the younger, creates the kind of dynamics that perpetuate an effective denomination without the bloodletting of civil war.

A need for a renewal in church planting

Finally, we need more new churches in our convention. I'm thankful for the efforts of Kevin Ezell and the team at the North American Mission Board as they are taking bold steps to refocus on church planting. Even in the Bible Belt there are large segments of people who have not been and are not being reached with the Gospel. In our large cities one could surmise that so much "urban blight" is the result of a spiritual vacuum. In the lesser-evangelized parts of our own country are people who have been insulated from the Gospel in the most Gospel-saturated society in history. Only a vast movement of church planting across North America will see these people reached with the message of Jesus Christ.

Telling the truth has been controversial in SBC life. But facts are still our friends. The fact is, our denomination is struggling and needs to change. Yet, it is not the denomination that is "great," rather, it is that a denomination is a family of great churches. I love those churches and pray God will use them to advance His name and His fame. The denomination is the tool the churches use to accomplish the God-given goal.

When will change come? I don't know. Some will keep going as before -- considering slow decline as acceptable as long as they can keep doing church in a way they have grown to prefer. Some are content to successfully manage decline. Yet, for others, knowing that 2010 saw the fewest number of new believers going through the baptismal waters since Eisenhower was president will break their hearts. They will weep for the lost.

We don't change until the pain of staying the same grows greater than the pain of change. May the truth break our hearts, drive us to our knees and compel us into the mission.
--30--
Ed Stetzer is vice president of the research and ministry development division and missiologist in residence at LifeWay Christian Resources of the Southern Baptist Convention. He also has written the following analysis of the SBC statistics.

Analysis of SBC statistics
By Ed Stetzer

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (BP)--The numbers are out, again. They show decline, again. But what do they really mean?

The Annual Church Profile (ACP) numbers are actually not compiled by LifeWay Research, but are gathered by our executive communications and relations division in partnership with state conventions. We received the numbers Wednesday and decided some analysis might be helpful as we digest the changes the data reveals.

The biggest issue is a negative membership trend. As I see it, the greatest concern is not that we have 0.15 percent less members, but that it continues to reinforce a membership trend. Annual membership shifts happen regularly and have multiple causes.

Trends are what should concern us -- and the one that concerns us most is the trend of membership change from year to year. A year is not a trend, but we are looking at a 50-year negative trend in regard to membership growth/decline measured year to year.

Cliff Tharp, who has written a helpful book on SBC denominational statistics, led the ACP process for 35 years. He wrote a few years ago, "We have been slowing in our growth and have now passed into decline. We are right at the top of the arc and beginning to go down. But changes we make now can change that trend significantly. These stats are not new but it has never caught anyone's attention until now."

The "arc" to which Cliff refers is our total membership, as shown here:

But, the 50-year trend of membership change is, in our view, the greater concern. It shows that the SBC was growing rapidly in the 1950s, growing well in the '60s and '70s, growing slightly in the '80s and '90s, and then the decline started in the new millennium. The graph tells the story:

If this 50-year trend continues (and they generally do), the small declines we see now will become big declines in the years and decades to come.

Second, the baptism trend is disturbing and now a trend of decline. For several years, LifeWay Research tried not to indicate baptisms were "trending down." The reason for this is that shifts over a few years were not unusual over the 60-year picture. Thus, we were thinking (and hoping) that baptisms would "return to the mean," which is a statistical way of saying they will go back to normal -- and at this point that means "up." Last year's slight uptick gave many hope, but we sounded a cautious (though hopeful) note then.

Surely all Southern Baptists prayed this was not a trend and there would be a return to the mean. In light of last year's data, we are forced to reconsider that view.

In our professional judgment, it is now appropriate to say SBC baptisms are on a downward trend. The large decline this year has shifted the trend line down over the last several decades (notice how it slopes to the right -- it has not in past years). Thus, we must regrettably say baptisms are now trending toward decline.

We could easily create some "sensational" news with a new graph tracking baptisms since 2000. The picture would be dramatic (and truthful), but we are still hoping that this brief trend (a decade is not that long -- consider 1980 to 1988 and the subsequent reversal) will change direction. But for now, SBC membership is in decline, membership change is in a 50-year decline, and baptisms are in a decade-long decline and trending down over time.

The news is not good, but God is still in charge and Southern Baptists are a wonderful people with a passion for God, His Word, and sharing Christ. I have given thoughts elsewhere on what we should do; here I simply point to where we are. Facts are our friends and these facts should concern us. Yet, as Cliff Tharp said, "Changes we make now can change that trend significantly."

[Mr Rogers]

The problem with SBC resolutions is that they have no meaning or sway in the congregations.

For example, the illegal immigration vote passed on a vote of 766-723 (1,489) out of 44,000 delegates present. So a 43 vote margin out of 1489 cast out of 44,000...the resolutions only reflect what the ‘leadership’ is trying to pass, not what anyone in the pews believes.

They DO, however, reflect on the spiritual blindness of what passes for leadership in the SBC. I’ve been in mostly SBC congregations for 30 years, but I feel no loyalty to the denomination itself. If all other things were equal, I’d prefer to be in an independent congregation.

[driftdiver]

The church is under attack, no surprises.

[mdmathis6]

A lot of the “teachers and leaders” at some of the SBC churches I have visited seem to be into Tony Campolo big time....especially those who are somewhat recent grads of protestant seminaries...and are generally in the 25 to 40 age group. I have watched as memberships have started to decline in these same churches and that leadership has suddenly become feckless in dealing with interpersonal issues that have arisen. I see many homosexuals attempting to put themselves into positions of authority in some of these churches(though if penitent and celibate I have no issues but there is a tendency to attempt to blunt the harder truths of faith when these folk teach).

“We must become more ‘missional’ and ‘socially inclusive’ is the hue and cry but some how passion regarding the “power in the BLOOD of the LAMB” has been lost; the older members have become uneasy and the kids see thru the PC sharade and want nothing to do with it!

[Texas Fossil]

Baptists have always been the strongest believers in the myth of the “separation of church and state.”

Where did you read that? The Baptists in the U.S. were "strong" supporters of the freedom of religion and against the "establishment" of a state religion. FACT. That came to a head in the House of Burgesses in Virginia, over the issue of the Anglican Church interfering with when they worshipped and taxing to support the state church. James Madison addressed this and after the laws were changed the Baptists were some of his strongest supporters.

[robowombat]

Interesting you should mention joint social missions. About 20 years ago when I lived in Northern Virginia the deacons and men's club of a black Baptist church in south Arlington decided to try and roust the crack dealers who were appearing in fair numbers in their community. They would do this by conducting citizen patrols and ‘peacefully confronting’ the street dealers by asking them to move on and by keeping a constant presence on the streets at night. Arlington PD contributed a car phone that was drop wired to the ops center. I called the church to ask if paleface Baptists were welcome. They were and I did some liaison and then approached my and my parent's church and presented the opportunity to help some fellow Baptists deal with a problem in their community. The results were the same as when about three years later when both my parents came down with dementia I asked our deacon what sort of elder outreach the church ad. In both cases the deacons and pastor after a couple platitudes said in effect ‘our members and deacons are too busy to be bothered this being DC where everyone has a career not a job.’
These two experiences ended by connection with that church and so far Baptists of any stripe. I did patrol with the black Baptists for the four months the patrol lasted. They were good guys, more politically liberal than me but culturally it was like being back in 1956 again. I also got several very good dinners from the experience. If my experiences are typical it is not surprising the SBC is stagnant.

[Former Fetus]

At my Southern Baptist Church, baptisms have been up for the last 3-4 years, we have almost doubled our membership and our youth is active in outreach programs for the community. I think the "secret" is preaching from the Book and getting involved with missions. For example, the Sunday school class that I teach has been mailing Bibles to the underground house churches in China, lately we have added sending Bibles in farsi to Iran.

This does not mean that all is well. The world is trying really hard to infiltrate the church. A couple of years ago we had to fight the "purpose driven" fad from staking a claim in our church. And, just earlier today, my son was very upset when he got his new Sunday school book and found quite a bit of politically correct nonsense in it! But we will continue to run the race with endurance, looking to Jesus, the author and finisher of our faith (Heb. 12:1)

[LowOiL]

And more and more people are flocking to the Catholic Church because it is the one church that refuses to budge on these matters.

Odd, before the last decade the local Catholic church was almost dead here. Illegal immigration basically is what has flocked to our local congregation. The Catholic church not only has budged on it's illegal's position, to just plain campaigning for open borders basically. Alabama's new immigration law was sued the other day by such Catholic policy.

John 10:1 -- He that entereth not by the door into the sheepfold but climbeth up another way, the same is a thief and a robber.

[schu]

Word count in article:

spirit = 0
holy spirit = 0
holy = 0

I cannot imagine why people don't go the see/hear the show on Sunday.

Its happening everywhere regardless of denomination.

schu

[Some Fat Guy in L.A.]

A few years ago many SBC churches got into Rick Warren and his ideas (we all had our “40 Days of Purpose” programs). Many of them (such as the one I attend) perceived the devil’s hand in the sock puppet and dropped all associations with Warren. The ones that didn’t are turning squishy.

As long as the leadership lets Jesus lead rather than the Warrens of the world the SBC will prosper. Overall numbers may drop, just due to demographics, but individual churches that obey the Lord will prosper. The goal, afterall, is not to increase the number of butts in the seats - it should be to lead people to salvation and equip them to serve in the Kingdom. SBC churches remain independent so the leadership in each individual church sets the direction for that church.

As for “diversity” initiatives: we reach out to families of all races. If, however, my pastor would come out and make it a goal to increase minority attendance I would find another church. The fact is, and always will be, that people will worship where they are most comfortable, and people by and large are more comfortable with people like themselves.

[Texas Fossil]

The church is under attack, no surprises.

Yep, it has been under attack since Christ. And will be until he comes again. He warned us that the path was not easy. But I have read the last of "the Book" and know who will ultimately win, it is not our enemies.

[Some Fat Guy in L.A.]

Lifeway’s VBS was New York City themed this year - I thought it was tastefully done and not a sign of creeping liberalism. The sight of our balding, white children’s pastor leading a rap was.....interesting.

I think that Lifeway is running out of original VBS themes and should start recycling them - the kids that did “Truth Trackers” and “Ocean Odyssey” are now old enough to have kids of their own and would enjoy a blast from the past.

[Siena Dreaming]

4 needs are spelled out in the article: Need for Mission, Need for Diversity, Need for New Generation, Need for Church Planting.

How about a need for a renewal of the Holy Spirit and a need for the central message of the Gospel to be preached with sincerity from the pulpit? This would take care of the other 4 needs in spades.

[uptoolate]

Dr. Voddie Baucham addresses these very issues at the Annual Founders’ Breakfast at the 2007 Southern Baptist Convention listing 7 areas of repentance needed for a Church that is lying to the world about who she is.

The text used was:

“To the angel of the church in Sardis write: He who has the seven Spirits of God and the seven stars, says this: ‘I know your deeds, that you have a name that you are alive, but you are dead. ‘Wake up, and strengthen the things that remain, which were about to die; for I have not found your deeds completed in the sight of My God. ‘So remember what you have received and heard; and keep it, and repent. Therefore if you do not wake up, I will come like a thief, and you will not know at what hour I will come to you. ‘But you have a few people in Sardis who have not soiled their garments; and they will walk with Me in white, for they are worthy.
Revelation 3:1-4

A must hear:
http://www.sermonaudio.com/sermoninfo.asp?SID=51709232753

[WorldviewDad]

Well said...

[WorldviewDad]

I live in the North and attend a Baptist church...although we would be considered more conservative then Southern Baptist.

[HarleyD]

Funny Paul didn't say that to Timothy. That never was the stance of the early church when they were willing to confront heresy. Now we just want to ignore them. After all, it's far more civilized.

[WorldviewDad]

Amen

[WorldviewDad]

I have seen Dr. Baucham preach and have several of his books...the Church would be wise to listen to some of what he has to say...

[Pan_Yan]

Your title doesn’t match the title at the source, and it doesn’t say anywhere in the article that membership is the lowest in 60 years, it says baptism are.

Please ask the Admins to correct it.

[Shalmaneser]

Of course they’re losing members. “Christians” with itching ears don’t want to hear the truth. They want a open, tolerant church that celebrates diversity and doesn’t condemn people for being who they are. The big church.com out on the new freeway — you know, the one with the bowling alley, the rock and roll praise band, and the puppet service for the kids — that’s the church they want. They want the church that makes them feel good, the one with the Happy Jesus who died so that we could have improved self-esteem, whiter teeth, fresher breath, and of course $uckce$$, not the one with those wheezy old hymns where they talk about hell and stuff all the time.

I salute the SBC. The fact that you are losing members means you’re doing it right. Keep holding the line and do not compromise one inch.

PS - I am Catholic.