Posted on 10/25/2001 8:30:14 AM PDT by Travis McGee
I have come up with what I think is going to happen next in the ongoing drama. Forgive this vanity post, but I think the idea demands discussion in advance of the possible event.
I think OBL is heading for Karachi or Islamabad.
He will stay in Pakistan because it has nukes and medium range rockets, is unstable and ready to blow up like Iran in 79, and of course is closest to Afghanistan for covert travel ease. He wants to be seen as the Mahdi, (Moslem messiah, the next Prophet of Allah) and to do that he needs the adoring masses, and proof that he has humiliated and beaten the Great Satan (and the lackey sell-out government of Musharraf). His "miraculous" escape from under the Amriki bombers and his secret journey to Pakistan will "prove" that the Hand of Allah is protecting and guiding him.
To ensure his safety he will at all times be surrounded by millions of fanatics in densely packed slums where we can not bomb him or send in troops. The micro-model for this will be "Blackhawk Down", the Battle of Mogadishu where (in the Moslem view) they won a great victory and drove the USA out of Somalia. Al Q'aida was instrumental in that battle, particularly by introducing modified anti-helicopter time-fused air-bursting RPGs, and the tactics which led to the shootdowns of several US helicopters, which caused the simple half hour Delta/Ranger "snatch" raid to spin out of control into a furious day and night long battle.
Every day that OBL is loose, appearing like a Super Pope on balconies in front of 100s of thousands of adoring jihadists, his power and influence worldwide will soar like a moon rocket. He will have the 24/7 attention of the entire world media for his every pronouncement, and then he can "ascend" into heaven proving he is truly the Mahdi. Even if we drop a smart bomb on his balcony, he "ascends to heaven" and wins.
If we dare to risk a helicopter/ground attack into the teeming slums to capture or kill him, he will get his "super battle of Mogadishu", which will suit his purpose by killing countless thousands of Moslem noncombatants, driving the entire Moslem world instantly into a world war on America.
And of course any smart bomb we dared to use to kill OBL will kill hundreds of adoring moslem children, proving what bloodthirsty butchers the infidels are.
Even if snipers or or precision fired Hellfire rockets "take him out" on his balcony, we may only kill an OBL double, allowing "the Mahdi" to be "resurrected from the dead" for new appearances, driving his power and influence still higher into the stratosphere.
This scenario has been his ultimate goal all along I believe. I wonder if anyone at the NSC, CIA , NSA or DOS has prepared a counter move to this very possible, even likely, scenario?
Semper Fi,
TS
But if OBL is thought to be dead, that will only reinforce his personal claim to being the Mahdi if he later reappears on a balcony.
Nobody thought that the Ayatollah was the next Prophet of Allah.
Pakistan is much more desperately poor than Iran was.
Musharaf's hold on power is much more tenuous than was the Shah's.
The head of Savak was not a secret agent of the Ahatollah, as was the head of the ISI.
Iran did not have nukes.
.
But as you said, all I want to do is get people to think. I am not trying to "sell" this scenario, I hope he is dead inside a collapsed cave. But in the event that OBL does appear on a balcony, we need to have a plan of action for dealing with the consequences. That's all.
Second, I for do not think that OBL is deceased at present. I have the greatest respect for the capabilities of all our special ops forces but I also have yet to see evidence that this is happened so under the options of contingency planning we must presume that it has not.
Third, and importantly, from the link provided it is clear that this myth structure is already having an impact on Muslims living in the USA. George W. Bush stated that this owuld be a long war and I firmly believe that. The graffitti from Pakistan supports this myth structure. the former head of ISI in Pakistan is not yet dead. since he is an opponent of Musharif one must infer that the reason for this is that he has some significant supporters within the Pakistani military, intelligence and government. One should also presume that ISI still has a large number of OBL supporters. Failure to account for these possibilities could be disasterous.
I will flag people for the independent thread.
Stay well - stay safe - Stay armed - Yorktown
Until I see OBL's body and DNA report, I will be looking for black flags marching out of Pakistan. If Musharraf was secure in his position, he'd have killed his OBL agent former ISI head, and not put him in gentleman's house arrest.
The Taliban didn't put Abdul Haq under house arrest, they killed him right away.
Naval Special Warfare would have it first anyway and even they don't yet have one.
Stay well - Stay saf e- Stay armed - Yorktown
Someone posted here the "Five Pillars of Islam", one of which is to make the Hadj pilgrimage at least once to the holy of holies - the black rock - in Mecca. If that's gone, then the basis of the faith is gone. Kind of like the great Wizard of Oz being revealed to be merely the little man behind the curtain. But, as you correctly observe, we are dealing with fanatics who are by definition irrational. It's unlikely they will think this through.
This problem will not go away in any short time. Remember how long the battle has gone-on really. For a time reference, look at the crosses atop Russian Orthodox Churches across the Volga region: There is a cross, set into an upturned half moon. This is symbolic of the victory of the Slavs over the Islamists and their freedom from Islamic slavery.
Naturally, I would expect a period of suicidal mania as the death cult went through its death spasms.
Pakistan wants American planes to stay away from their nuke sites, I think that's why.
They don't want Indian planes POSING as US planes to get near their sites, and blast them (while the anti-aircraft guns are silent because the Paks think the planes are American and don't mean any harm).
I was wondering why Pak would want to keep US planes away from their nuke sites, because WE wouldn't pre-emptively strike them. I thought Musharraf might be getting a little paranoid, that would be a very bad thing. Hopefully he's just worried about Indians.
If whoever is behind the Anthrax wanted to inflame Muslims, wouldn't they provoke Israel by attacking it, in hopes for an all-out Israeli response?
That's a funny analogy, he's engaged in deep, strategic planning while we're tossing missiles out, trying to hit him... lol...
Or someone attempting to look like the Anti-Christ, Travis and Harpseal are talking about a faked death, not a real one.
Yeah, I read it on AheadNews... </sarcasm>
What if he is dead, and a look-alike appears on the balcony? Osama's lieutenants would be expected to try to keep Al-Qaeda running in his absence, that would be a good way to stir up large numbers of recruits. And how do we stop four look-alikes from getting in Pakistan?
Well it doesn't matter one iota if he "is the true Mahdi" or just a skilled poseur, if 100s of millions of death cultists believe he is the Mahdi, then he IS the Mahdi.
One more possibility: put a close double out in public, then shoot him in the head with your own Al Q'aida sniper. Do it on TV. Blame it on the CIA.
Then, have the real OBL show up a few days later with a bandage on his head.
How's that for myth making?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.