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Pipe Dreams: The origin of the "bombing Afghanistan for oil pipelines" theory (Lefties Proved Liars)
Slate ^ | December 6, 2001 | Seth Stevenson

Posted on 12/10/2001 9:04:18 AM PST by Timesink

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It's amazing how many seemingly intelligent people nevertheless believe that correlation implies causation.

Fact: Afghanistan('s ruling regime) was harboring terrorists which, as it turned out, attacked our country, prompting us to attack back.

Fact: Afghanistan('s territory) is considered a good place to put a pipeline but the situation thus far has been deemed too unstable.

Some people draw the conclusion from these two things that somehow the war Isn't Really About The Attack, It's About The Oil. (Or even further, some will imply that the attack was allowed....) From this view, the oil pipeline need for "stability" (somehow) caused the attack and ensuing war.

But doesn't it make more sense to say that they are both caused by the same underlying factor? Both the "harboring terrorists" and "bad for a pipeline" situations are caused by the fact that Afghanistan has been ruled by a brutal theocracy. So it's not surprising that there is a correlation between the war and oil interests, but that doesn't imply that oil "caused" the war.

41 posted on 12/10/2001 11:35:33 AM PST by Dr. Frank fan
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To: Timesink; Congressman Billybob
Stuck in the Gulf appeared in Salon.com (of all places) back on Oct 29.

"Even if ways were found to get oil and gas out of Central Asia -- a task that will be expensive and difficult -- the unhappy truth is that there just isn't enough fuel there to make a significant difference."

42 posted on 12/10/2001 11:35:37 AM PST by moni kerr
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To: Timesink
I have yet to see someone who can tell me why its not a good idea to build this pipeline; Such a pipeline would be good for the nearly non-existent economy (except for opium, what have the Afghans exported?) of every country in the region. Only a lunatic would say that the US is kicking the crap out of the Taliban because we want Unocal to build this pipeline,but why not take advantage of the situation after the fact?
43 posted on 12/10/2001 11:46:17 AM PST by 45Auto
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To: Black Jade
FYI!
44 posted on 12/10/2001 11:51:08 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Dog Gone
FYI!

Being in the Oil Business thought you might have some observations, if not just ignore!

45 posted on 12/10/2001 11:52:23 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: big gray tabby
Looks like It'salmosttolate should change names to It'salmostthetruth

BTW, almost don't you mean "toolate"?

46 posted on 12/10/2001 12:09:07 PM PST by muleskinner
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To: SuziQ
I'm waiting for some conspiracy nuts to claim that our government planned and executed the 9/11 attacks just so Bush and Cheney could go to war with Afghanistan to help out their oil buddies; or have they already claimed that?

Suzi, I believe that is exactly the loopy formulation that got Michael Rivero tossed from FR. I believe that this conspiracy-oriented website is representative of Rivero's ideas.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

47 posted on 12/10/2001 12:16:41 PM PST by Criminal Number 18F
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I've followed this particular conspiracy theory and have commented on a few threads. To me, it all comes down to this one particular line in the article above:

Also, many thinkers are comfortable with the conditioned response that dates back to Ida Tarbell vs. Standard Oil: When in Doubt, Blame Oil First.

Even normally sane Freepers often have this response. Every time gasoline prices rise in this country, many here blame it on a conspiracy of Big Oil. Yet, they are silent when gasoline prices fall 40 cents a gallon like they have in the last 3 months. You might think that if Big Oil were so powerful, they wouldn't allow that to happen.

Big Oil is the favorite target of the left and they use it as a whipping boy whenever they can. Most of us grew up learning nothing but hostility toward oil companies, because that is the mindset of the media. We didn't have Free Republic around when we were kids to provide a truth check to what we were being told.

Anyway, these conspiracy theories are a crock and more people are becoming educated enough to understand that. There will still be some who continue to blame oil for everything and I'll continue to comment whenever I think it will be helpful.

Thanks for the flag!

48 posted on 12/10/2001 1:04:02 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Paradox
I had read that the Afghan pipeline was one of many different ones being considered, and that it wasn't even the favorite one...

Yeah, they probably won't end up piping oil through Afghanistan. That will end up going through one of the other 'Stans to the north. Natural gas for India's electrical generation might well go though Afghanistan and Pakistan though. That would be a good thing from everyone's perspective: fostering economic ties and interdependencies between India and Pakistan.

Development of Central Asian oil resources, and economically viable infrastructure to get the oil and gas to market, would also be good from everyone's perspective (except maybe the autocratic, fundamentalist fostering, wealth hoarding Arab oil states, but screw them).

In fact I think the lefties pushing the "it's all about oil" B.S. need to be challenged on this score at every opportunity. Oil IS important. It's important to maintaining a world economy which provides food, water and shelter and (ideally) resources for education and betterment to the earth's six billion souls.

On any resonable moral theory all humans are corporately responsible for the wellfare of all our fellow humans, and those with the largest and most influencial economies (i.e., The U.S. and Europe) are most responsible for maintaining the effectiveness and prosperity of the world economy. An American President should (in part as a MORAL imperative) be thinking about the future stability of the world's oil supply. A significant interruption would lead to a recession or depression that would KILL tens or hundreds of millions worldwide, and disproportionately affect the poor and oppressed the lefties pretend to be so concerned about. (Even mild recessions, that may only cause those in the prosperous West to take on a second mortgage, or cancel vacation plans, lead to significantly increased DEATH rates in more economically marginal regions.)

It just drives me nuts when these lefties posture about defending the poor, and then turn around and work stalwartly AGAINST their interests on so many fronts. For example the lefties and anti-globablists (read "anti-capitalists") fighting free trade are the ones insisting that trade be tied to universal "environmental" and "labor" standards which the developing world cannot meet. The third world countries clearly (and correctly) see such measures as devices of PROTECTIONISM by the developed world, but that doesn't stop the lefties (almost all priveledged elistists) from pretending to be "on their side". The nihilistic and/or utopian ideals of the left would bring death, degradation and oppression on a truly massive scale if put into practice, and those already most impoverished and degraded would suffer first and worst. Their hypocrisy knows no bounds.

I thank God we have an adminstration that IS concerned about the welfare of our country, our civilization AND the wider world, and which understands the material factors on which these things depend. Adults know there are things in life which must be provided for. Children think it all happens as if by magic.

49 posted on 12/10/2001 3:37:39 PM PST by Stultis
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To: KC Burke
Interesting times, my friend.
50 posted on 12/10/2001 4:43:00 PM PST by amom
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To: KC Burke; aristeides; Askel5; Joe Montana; Pericles
Some on the screaming face shows are talking about the benefits of pipelines to the new Afghan "government", adding realism by getting the other countries wrong (one talking about the Unocal line confused Tadjikistan with Turkmenistan).

Dostum, the Uzbek, is reportedly consolidating his control over the corridor from the Caspian hydrocarbon deposits through Afghanistan.

Actions speak louder than words. Whining about the differentiation between actions and "conspiracy theories" is irrelevant.

51 posted on 12/10/2001 5:40:54 PM PST by Hamiltonian
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To: Hamiltonian
Actions speak louder than words.

Amen. Putin's already turning on the taps in Russia. If it makes logistic and economic sense, let's get the stuff flowing through whichever 'Stans want to line up some jobs and hard currency income. Take some cheap energy and build us some more civilization. Hell with the libs whining from the sidelines.

52 posted on 12/10/2001 10:40:42 PM PST by Stultis
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To: Timesink
Classic 'rubbishing' article. The author is 'selective' in what simplified argument he chooses to refute and to whom, not even bothering to address the more sophisticated arguments in which oil (or more precisely ENERGY) plays a significant and variable factor. Now how many oilmen are there in the Administration???

Still, who needs to go into details when we know what is true and what is false?

VRN

53 posted on 12/11/2001 3:25:07 AM PST by Voronin
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To: Timesink
BTTT
54 posted on 12/11/2001 4:26:50 AM PST by Fiddlstix
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Comment #55 Removed by Moderator

To: Black Jade
BUMP!!

BJ, "Give 'em the truth. They'll think{?} it's hell." Peace and love, George.

56 posted on 12/12/2001 4:46:54 AM PST by George Frm Br00klyn Park
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To: Black Jade
Good links, and this certainly qualifies as a tale from the dark underbelly... I'll include it!
57 posted on 12/12/2001 4:50:59 AM PST by backhoe
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To: Black Jade
Maybe the players here didn't want to lose to Argentina.
(From the Taliban)
From ----- http://www.ummah.net.pk/dharb/newsv1/nation3.htm
Weekly Dharb-i- M'umin:15/06/1418(Hijri), 17/10/1997 (AD)   National    
 International 
        War        
    Editorial    
Afghanistan to gain 100 million dollars by Gas Pipeline Project
(Staff Correspondent) It is hoped that by the proposed grand project of the Turkmenistan gas pipeline, Afghanistan will gain hundred million dollars yearly", the minister of mines and industries said on his return from an official tour to Argentina. "The purpose of our tour was to hold negotiations with the Argentine company. All the initial stages have been successfully completed. Full Story

58 posted on 12/12/2001 5:09:16 AM PST by rdavis84
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To: Black Jade; rdavis84
Excellent finds. Bookmark bump.
59 posted on 12/12/2001 5:17:16 AM PST by gnarledmaw
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To: Black Jade
These pipeline schemes

My point was that even if the "it's all about oil" claims were completely true, these would be GOOD and much needed "schemes". Fact is the powers that be probably have other plans (than an Afghan oil pipeline), but to the extent that America and other Western nations are pushing buttons to get more Central Asian oil to market more economically, they are performing an important SERVICE to the world.

Central Asia badly needs development, jobs and income, India needs natural gas, Pakistan needs foreseable rewards for reforming its backward economic policies, and the world needs a greater diversity of oil supplies (so a single war or other regional interruption won't send all six billion of us spinning into a killing depression). Win-win situation here. As a non-colonial world power, America's interests are in global stability and prosperity. Despite the incessant accusations, whining and hand-wringing from the Left, American "interventions" on balance leave affected regions and people better off than they were before.

I am PROUD and GRATEFUL that our leaders consider issues such as the world oil supply and the health of the world economy. What would you have them do differently?

60 posted on 12/12/2001 5:17:23 AM PST by Stultis
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