Posted on 12/17/2001 1:26:56 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
President George W. Bush is riding high in the polls with the collapse of the Taliban and the seemingly imminent capture or elimination of suspected terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden. Largely because of the inspiring leadership he has shown since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Bush now stands a better-than-average chance of joining the ranks of presidents whose forte was foreign policy. "Bush has been thrust into a leadership role here and internationally," said Charles Jones, who has written or edited a host of books on the presidency, including Preparing to be President and Passages to the Presidency. Globalization, which blurs the line between the domestic and the international, might have nudged Bush in that direction anyway, Jones added. But the terrorist attacks cemented a global path for Bush.
Beyond the riveting videotape of a smirking bin Laden and endless headlines from Afghanistan, though, Bush faces other challenges that will determine whether he makes his mark internationally: the broader war against terrorism that will take American troops, spies and diplomats to other countries; the key relationships with Russia and China; and the so-called "clash of cultures" that shapes global affairs from the Middle East to other regions.
An indication that Bush had the makings of a foreign-policy president happened shortly after Sept. 11 -- 2000, not 2001. Bush was stumping in Florida during the final weeks of the presidential campaign, and I had the opportunity to ask him a number of foreign-policy questions. Despite some criticism about his inability to identify key foreign leaders and problems articulating positions, Bush easily discussed issues that ranged from tensions on the Korean peninsula to the global economy.
Bush seems to do particularly well with critical international topics that may not fascinate average Americans but that draw his interest, such as trade, said Jones. Key advisers in the Bush presidency also propel the president toward the international realm. "It's necessary to picture a president not just as a person but as a collection of people. Bush draws from who he is, who his father is and his top advisers," Jones said.
Most dramatically, the terrorist attacks on America redefined Bush's priorities, ending a period in which contentious debates about domestic issues such as tax cuts appeared as if they would dominate the agenda. Earl Black, a Rice University political scientist and author of The Vital South and a forthcoming book, The Rise of Southern Republicans, said, "For a long time, the Cold War defined major policy concerns. After that, domestic concerns became more influential, and Bush can't afford to ignore those matters. He certainly looked at what happened to his father after the Persian Gulf War."
In one respect, however, Bush is not his father's son. Black described the current situation as different in that the Gulf War was contained, and terrorism, by nature, is sustained. He also observed that Bush might have more leeway because the attacks happened on American soil.
A resurgent Russia provides another example of a challenge that, if Bush succeeds, will bolster his foreign-policy legacy. Bush started his administration talking tough to the Russians and brandishing his missile-defense plans, causing a frost to settle over the relationship that threatened a new Cold War. But now, because terrorism has inspired mutual admiration and appreciation in Washington and Moscow, Bush has felt confident enough to announce that the United States will withdraw from the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty. The tradeoff, which pleases the Russians, will be deep cuts in nuclear-weapons stockpiles.
In China, which also suddenly cozied up to the United States after Sept. 11, the future of reforms and that nation's very stability demand that Bush focus intently. Because of rapid change, Beijing faces many unknowns. It could stay the course of reform and even evolve into a giant version of Taiwan. But China just as easily could experience a crackdown by hardliners or, most frighteningly, collapse.
Finally, Bush must grapple with a phenomenon outlined by Harvard University scholar Samuel Huntington in Foreign Affairs nearly a decade ago. "Conflict between civilizations will be the latest phase in the evolution of conflict in the modern world," he wrote.
The future is now the present, the "clash of cultures" Bush's reality. The task, according to Huntington, requires the West to maintain its economic and military strength, but also to develop a better understanding of the philosophical and religious assumptions underlying those other civilizations.
Can Bush nimbly tackle those crucibles? If his response to Sept. 11 provides any indication, he is well on his way.
Sentinel foreign-affairs columnist John C. Bersia is the special assistant to the president for global perspectives and a professor at the University of Central Florida. He can be reached at jbersia@orlandosentinel.com
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Probe urged in death of Journalist--[Excerpt] In recent months there have been at least 30 attacks on Haitian journalists -- ranging from death threats to reporters being physically assaulted, Ady said. According to Petit-Goave Police Chief Alix Alexandre, Brignol Lindor, news director for Radio Eco 2000, was dragged out of his car by a mob, which stoned him and hacked him to death with a machete. Last week Lindor had received death threats for inviting opposition supporters on his show.[End Excerpt]
Cuban President Fidel Castro (L), Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (C) and Colombian Andres Pastrana talk during the closing of the III summit of the Association of Caribbean States (ACS) on Margarita Island, Venezuela, December 12, 2001. Caribbean leaders signed cooperation and trade agreements where Chavez carried his left-leaning agenda into the Caribbean Summit urging his Caribbean neighbors to shun a U.S.-backed hemispheric free trade zone. REUTERS/Jose Miguel Gomez
Even I never dreamed he would be so capable in this area; strange things happening here.
I do, however, believe Bush now has a "vision." :-)
Only time will tell now as the events have thrust him the position. Some rise to the calling and some fail... I hope and pray that he can rise.
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