Posted on 01/16/2002 1:37:24 PM PST by Stand Watch Listen
Exclusive. From GIS (Global Information System) Correspondents in Benghazi, Tripoli and elsewhere.
Reports from a number of reliable eye-witness reports have confirmed that Libyan leader Col. Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi has been increasingly suffering from poor health, although none of the new reports confirm the earlier reports in GIS to the effect that he could be suffering from leukemia. [See Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, January 7, 2002: Libya at a Watershed as Qadhafi Attempts to Re-Define His Leadership.] As well, the Libyan leader has been increasingly frustrated by the activities of his children, who have now been reported to be quarreling and interfering with the activities of Qadhafi's traditionally most-important allies, including Minister for African Unity Ali Abdel-Salam al-Traiki.
GIS earlier also reported Col. Qadhafi's problems with one of his sons, Dr Moatasam al-Qadhafi, who is in exile in Egypt. [See Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily, January 8, 2002: Reports of New Coup Attempt Against Qadhafi; Militia of Qadhafi's Renegade Son Disbanded.]
Col. Qadhafi's health problems appear — apart from any suggestion that leukemia may be to blame — to be related to exhaustion. Instead of acting like a man in his early sixties, several sources have said that he seems more like a man in his late seventies. He has also mentioned his dissatisfaction with the behavior of his sons.
The reports fuel speculation that Col. Qadhafi may be closer to agreeing to a compromise solution which would allow him to retire from office with safety and dignity, possibly in the knowledge that none of his sons — even his eldest and nominated heir, Saif al-Islam — cannot expect to assume power fully in their own right. Increasingly, officials and military officers are claiming allegiance to Libya's traditional Muslim sect, the Sanussi, which places the effective leader of the Sanussiyah, Prince Idris al-Senussi, in a key position to work toward a peaceful transition of power from the Qadhafi era. Prince Idris, currently in Washington DC, has been undertaking a wide range of contacts with key US officials, despite the fact that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has — according to Libyan sources — been quietly supporting a military officer as a potential candidate for power.
The Saudi Government, which once had given extensive financial support to the opposition National Salvation Front, but had not done so for some years, especially since most of the Front's military members had been moved to exile in the US. However, in the past few months, the Saudi Government had apparently resumed some financing of the Front. Significantly, the Front has now become avowedly Sanussi in its orientation, and it was understood that the Saudi leadership (ie: those around Crown Prince Abdallah bin ‘Abd al-’Aziz al Sa’ud) had now moved toward support for Prince Idris al-Senussi as the next Libyan leader.
At the same time, however, Qadhafi has expressed optimism that he is "making a breakthrough" in negotiations with the United States Government, despite the recent extension of the unilateral US embargo against Libya. And while he has claimed that the recent contacts with US officials represent progress, US officials, including the key State Department officer charged with overseeing the contacts, Assistant Secretary of State William Burns, have indicated that no progress was likely to be made on easing relations with Libya until the Libyan Government agreed on compensation for the victims of the 1988 terrorist bombing of Pan Am flight 103.
Libya cannot afford, however, to make the compensation offer without implying acceptance of the charge that it was responsible for the PA103 bombing, and as yet it is not ready to give details — which Western officials know that it has — of the real sponsors of the PA103 bombing: Iran and Syria. Nonetheless, despite refraining from implicating Syria and Iran, Qadhafi's position among some Middle Eastern leaders is also suffering at present. Some Middle Eastern media reports — particularly in Al-Hayat newspaper — in mid-January 2002 indicated that Qadhafi would be "assassinated" if he visited Lebanon. There is particular vitriol among Shi'ites in Lebanon toward Qadhafi for his alleged involvement in the alleged assassination of a Lebanese Shi'ite cleric, Imam Musa al-Sadr, the founder of the AMAL militia, in 1978. [Musa al-Sadr disappeared during a visit to Libya, although Libyan authorities claim that he had, in fact, left for Lebanon, where he never arrived.]
This almost certainly accounted for the rationale behind the statement by Arab League Secretary General Amr Mousa on January 13, 2002, that a number of Arab countries had supported Libya's demand to hold the upcoming Arab League summit in Cairo instead of Beirut. He said Arab leaders were quietly consulting each other to resolve this issue. Mousa told reporters in Beirut that there was a consensus on holding the summit in March 2002 but the Libyans have "officially proposed moving the summit from Beirut to Cairo". Mousa said "some Arab countries have approved the Libyan point of view" but he refused to name them.
In other, related events, US Federal agents on January 9, 2002, arrested a German pilot accused of offering to buy military cargo aircraft and aircraft engines for Libya. Klaus Ernst Buhler of Dusseldorf, Germany, was taken into custody, according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court on January 10, 2002. Before his arrest, Buhler said his Libyan connections, including a best friend whom he described as a personal assistant to Qadhafi, offered to buy six CH-47C Chinook helicopter engines — 2,796-kW (3,750-shp) T55-L-11 turboshaft engines — and parts for $5.6-million. Libya's CH-47Cs are among the few in the world yet to be upgraded to CH-47D status. He said he also wanted two entire Lockheed Martin C-130 cargo aircraft and other parts in the future, although a price was not discussed. The Libyan Air Force currently operates seven Lockheed C-130H Hercules, two Lockheed L-100-20 Hercules, two Lockheed L-100-30 Hercules transports, and has had difficulty obtaining spares.
Libya is also suffering from significant economic problems following the protracted low price of oil. Libya's devaluation in early January 2002 of the dinar rate has made the purchase of consumer goods — all of which must be imported — considerably more difficult for Libyans. Libya confirmed that it had devalued the rate of the dinar by 51 percent to 1.3 dinars to the dollar, from 0.65 previously. The Central Bank has claimed that it undertook the devaluation to more realistically value the currency and to thereby undermine black market currency operators.
The arrival in Tripoli on January 11, 2002, of a Libyan envoy arrived in Islamabad, Pakistan, was ostensibly to convey Libyan leader Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi's concern about the rising tensions between Pakistan and India. Envoy Salem Ibrahim Ben-Amer was to deliver the message for Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf on January 12, 2002, and was expected to convey Col. Qadhafi's concern at the build-up of troops on the Indo-Pakistani borders and to urge for a de-escalation of the tension. However, it was also known that Libya had been negotiating with Pakistan for the release of some Afghan Taliban and al-Qaida officials into Libyan custody.
After 911 Shah so-and-so, from Texas, says he wants to help "facilitate" a transition in Iran, not necessarily reinstitute shahdom. Sounded like he copied Zahir's playbook. Of course the option of actually reinstalling a monarchy is not off either's book.
Now we have the Libyan king from D.C. in "a key position to work toward a peaceful transition of power from the Qadhafi era". That sounds like tack of Zahir and the Shah. Is America becoming a force of remonarchization? [and is that a word? :)]
...Q Ari, does the President plan to sign off on the reported settlement between Libya and the families from Pan Am 103? And how close is the administration to taking Libya off the list of rogue nations?
MR. FLEISCHER: Thank you for asking that, I'm glad you did, that gives me a chance to clarify something that was out there this morning.
There are discussions that have been underway involving several of the parties with Libya. But the report this morning that there is any type of agreement is substantially, widely off the mark. There is no such agreement. There have been conversations, but Libya knows what it needs to do, and that is to follow the United Nations' policies about paying reparations to the victims of the attack at Lockerbie, as well as to apologize for the attack. And that has not yet taken place.
And that's a separate matter from de-listing Libya as a terrorist state that sponsors terrorism. That's a matter that's with the State Department and is separate and apart from Libya simply conforming to the actions that they are supposed to conform to in accordance with the U.N. obligations.
Q Would the President want to hear from the Pan Am 103 families before he took action?
MR. FLEISCHER: Well, I think there's no action about to be taken.
[Then after three unrelated questions] Let me go back to the Libya question for a second. I want to give you some very specific language on that, just to help you clarify that. I was looking for this earlier. There have been positive discussions with Libya, but Libya still has not fully complied with its United Nations Security Council resolutions. The United States government is not -- not -- negotiating a compensation settlement with the Libyans. As we've said before, we are committed to preserving the right of the families of Pan Am 103 victims and will not undercut their pending claims.
[Then at the end of the news conf.]Q Ari, can I just follow on your Libyan statement that you came back to? Is there any evidence whatsoever that the Libyans have taken the proper steps in order to possibly be taken off of the list of rogue nations?
MR. FLEISCHER: That's a separate issue and that has to be resolved bilaterally. And it cannot even be resolved bilaterally until Libya has fulfilled the Security Council requirements. And the discussions with Libya into fulfilling its Security Council requirements need to be had with the families involved of the Pan Am Flight 103. So it's a very separate measure from what you saw this morning.
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