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Okay, I'm in the pool. February 12, 2002.
You unwisely assume that a body will be found.
My prediction: Yasser becomes an unperson in early March.
Israel has new leaders voted in every few years. The Palestinians have been subjegated to Yasser's whims for decades.
In reaction the Europeans and middle-easterners and a few slugs in this nation lament Israel's government and laud the Palestinian's... Yasser.
If those who support Yasser really mean what they seem to be saying, they're living under the wrong systems of governance. They need to move to a place that has a dictator who perpetrates terrorism against his own people as well as his neighbors.
Come on folks, why not live under the policies and government of the man you support?
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My quess: Late Friday, Feb 1, 2002. (Friday cause that will be when media goes home)
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He's discredited around much of the world, and he's ugly.
He's widely perceived as being the one who walked away from a peace deal that was too generous to him.
If there was any reason to think that he'd be replaced by somebody more moderate who could deliver on his promises, that would be one thing. But he wouldn't be, which is why they won't kill him.
2). This attack will cause an uproar in the Arab world. Iraq, Lebanon and Syria will mobilize.
3). Israel will mobilize in return and will launch pre-emptive attacks at Iraqi tanks that are in Syria and Lebanon and Iraqi scuds and decoys.
4). Iraq, and Syria invade the Golan heights and through Jordan in the West Bank area, arming the populace as they go, preceded by remaining scud attacks, including chemical weapons sent by rogue Iraqi commanders. Lebanon begins a southward push that is only designed to draw off forces. Terrorist attacks using chemical weapons used in market squares. Israel shows restraint concerning weapons of mass destruction, but deploys troops ruthlessly to defend Israel and kill all invaders. Due to Palistinian support of the invasion, many thousands of Palistinians are killed in the first week alongside their Iraqi and Syrian allies.
5). The world shows outrage at Iraq and Syria for the use of chemical weapons and the world opinion is in Israel's favor for the first time in an undeniable way.
6). Iraq uses radioactive waste in SCUD attacks and terror attacks in Jerusalem. Some form of chemical attack is used and kills hundreds in full view of television cameras.
7). Baghdad is nuked with a 5+ megaton device. Saddam probably killed. World freaks out, demands peace in the middle east, Israel points out, less people died in Baghdad than in the combined attacks of Iraq. Remaining Iraqi form coalition government allied to finish the invasion of Israel.
8). Joint American/European Force arrives 3 weeks after first attacks, lands at Haifa. Syrian troop from Golan Heights and LEbanese troops attacked by a two pronged attack by American/European forces. Israeli forces still respond to internal attacks, while additional American forces attack Iraq from the seas. Arabs living in America face severe persecution from citizens. All sleeper terror cells start causing havoc in the parks, shopping malls, and bus stations. Many Arabs choose to leave. Those remaining are considered criminals and face persecution and occaasional internment.
9). Lebanese forces crumble under intense American air power and resort to terorist type attacks, similar to Japanese last stand defenses in WWII Island campaigns. American/European forces cross the Golan Heights and enter Syria.
10). Nuclear device exploded in prominent European city and 2 American cities, one of which is Wshington D.C. President probably killed, American Government brought to it's knees logistically. All pity or remorse for Arabs is lost. All Arabs in US are attacked by vigilante groups, police do little to stop this. Remaining Americans take to arms, fill positions in newly called draft in 1 week.
11). War continues for 4 more months, with all major Syrian city infrastructure destroyed. Lebanon Cities invaded from Beirut by American/European/Turkish forces. Troops enter Baghdad ruins in symbolic act, invasion of Iraq from the Persian Gulf seizes major oil terminals in the east, while Turkish forces secure the north. Turkish forces cause much dissent with their additional attempts to eliminate Kurdish forces hostile to Turkey.
12). Since more than 75% of the Palistinians picked up arms and committed attacks from school yards and personal homes against Israeli forces, population of Palistinians is reduced by 60% or more. Syria cannot feed their people. Lebanon refugees flood Iraq and Turkey. Iraq is acountry without a leader, civil or otherwise. Millions dead. Arab nations threaten to cut west off from oil if attack momentum not stopped. West responds with threats against Saudi oil if promise kept. Saudis lighten up tone of threat, west responds with cessation of attack. World sees lack of advancing armies for the first time in 5 months since war started by Arab terrorists. Over 100,000,000 dead worldwide. World breathes sigh of relief.
13). Due to power vaccuum in US because of Nuclear attack, Europe must step forward to take world leader role. European leader starts re-building campaign putting survivors back to work. Small groups commit terror attacks in Israel and the world. European leader appears to have all best interests at heart, the world wants peace. Due to world pressure, Israel signs a peace treaty with the European lader to defend Israel against all foreign armies because Israel has almost no Army left and hawks demand protectionagainst all remaining Muslim countries like Egypt/Sudan/Libya and the southern republics of the former Soviet Union. Welcome to the Anti-Christ!
Arafat's heir will be nastier. I have no doubts that Israel will defend itself well, but the day after Israel were to kill Arafat, they would basically be on a war footing permanently, even more so than they are now.
My prediction is that Israel is getting close though. One more major terrorist attack against the west, (US or Europe, not Israel) will be Arafat's doom. Israel will retaliate with lethal force against Arafat within a week after the first even minor terrorist event in Israel.
I don't think they will do the deed until then however.
