4Q GDP up 1.4% ( Maybe no recession after all)

CNNfn ^ | 2/28/02 | CnnFn

[finnman69]

Economy grew at faster pace than first thought; jobless claims, Chicago PMI up.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -The U.S. economy grew much faster in the fourth quarter than initially thought, the government said Thursday, bolstered by robust consumer and government spending.

[finnman69]

Maybe we never had a recession after all.

[kezekiel]

Maybe we never had a recession after all.

Talk about cooking the books... I'm not a tinfoil hat type, but I can't believe the spin coming out of Washington and New York on this economy. Are we supposed to buy this stuff?

[hsmomx3]

I find this hard to believe. Afterall, people spend and charge at about Christmastime which would explain a bounce. I'll bet next quarter will show a decline.

[PatrioticAmerican]

So, who has been messing with the GDP numbers? It seems everytime the DOW or any other financial number looks bad, they change the way the number is calculated. Kinda like when Clinton made 10,000,000 jobs appear. 6,000,000 were known and the other 4,000,000 "must have been created".

[911]

Surely you're aware that the definition of a "recession", like the meaning of the Constitution or the word "is", is a highly mutable thing. There's a fine line between "slowdown" and "recession", and which side of the line we're on depends on a number of highly complex factors, the foremost of which is who is in the White House, and whether the media wants to help or hurt him.

[07055]

"While 1.4 percent growth is pretty feeble, it does mean the recession was, from a GDP perspective, the mildest one we ever had."

This can't be true. Tommy Daschole told us that this was the worst economy in 60 years! Could he have lied?

[KC_for_Freedom]

Tommy Daschole told us that this was the worst economy in 60 years

So what if the FED lowered rates 11 times and expanded the money supply and W implemented a small but growing tax cut? Maybe the economy is responding more rapidly to these factors because we have these computers and react faster to everything?

Could he have lied?

You have to ask?

[bray]

The Clinton Recession is over and the GW economy minus an energy policy looks to be recovering. Bring on November and lots of true Republicans to solve our oil dependence!!! Hope you enjoyed your Leadership/Dictatorship Premier Dasshole!

Pray for GW and the Truth

[Lunatic Fringe]

As I recall, an official recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

We're baaaccckk!

[afraidfortherepublic]

Ask any midwestern manufacturer and he/she'll tell you that the recession is still waxing strong. Our business is off 42% from 2000. We're heading to the National Manufacturing Week in Chicago on March 18 (the premier trade show for OEMs and suppliers) and it appears that attendance is going to be way down. They are billing it this year as an "Exhibition, Conference, and Career Fair". Career Fair????? Career searches at this trade show always used to be limited to business cards on a bulletin board!

We've been expecting 'recovery just around the corner' since the last quarter of 2000 when Greenspan first hiked the interest rates.

[Moonman62]

As I recall, an official recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP.

Right, but this has been one of the worst business spending recessions this country has ever seen.

[Moonman62]

Selling all those cars at 0% interest did wonders for the GDP. Not only is it not sustainable, but it will hurt car sales going forward.

[RightWhale]

The energy policy is on its way. Minus ANWR but plus the natural gas pipeline. Let's see how the Senate vote goes on the amendment.

[cpressroll]

All I can say for sure is,"they sho' ain't havin' none o' that there recoveration whu' I is."

[KC_for_Freedom]

Hope you enjoyed your Leadership/Dictatorship Premier Dasshole!

Yes, please G-d, give us a majority in the house and senate. I don't know how much more of Dashale I can take either

[appeal2]

There are several reasons why the recession is over. First, we have a situation of real negative interest rates and after 11-12 cuts in the past twelve months. The others are 9/11 and the tax cuts.

The interest rate cuts unleashed a torrent of liquidiity into the economy. However, the markets were anticipating the cataclismic events of 9-11 for at least 120 days prior. When 9-11 finally occured the market tanked but the seeds were set for the recovery. There was a distribution blow-off in the market. 9-11 unleashed over 100 billion into the economy in insurance payments and federal dollars. We also have lots of military money hitting the economy as well. And then of course we have the tax cut kicking in as well. Combine these factors together and you have the recipe for not just a normal recovery, but a monster recovery.

The wild card is of course future terrorist attacks. No one knows, but reading the market averages they seem to be saying buckle up and start sleeping in the bomb shelter. Normally a 15% decline wouldn't be cause for alarm, but in light of 9-11 and the extreme positive liquidity situation, it is cause for grave concern. If we make it through the next 30-60 days the recovery will grab hold and we should be okay. If there's another air incident, you can kiss commercial aviation goodbye and with it the travel industry.

[KC_for_Freedom]

If there's another air incident, you can kiss commercial aviation goodbye and with it the travel industry.

I haven't seen your sources, but you are quite pesimistic. I don't see how the market could "anticipate" 9/11. The market has been overvalued and has been anticipating something that would lower stock prices. Is this what you meant? As for the travel industry, I don't see how it is coming back so soon. The fix to the industry in the form of tighter security, better people, better computer databases, cooperation between INS and FBI and other things like bomb screening that is 100 % are not in place and don't plan on being in place for years. We are safer primarily because of a few air marshals and the fact that a plane full of passengers will not tollerate a hijacking. But if there is another incident, our resolve will triple and our economy may well go on a full wartime level. I for one do not see us doing anything except coming out of the recession.

[appeal2]

Simple matter. The Fed's post WWII formula of easier money and lower interest rates leads to higher stock prices and economic expansion. Not always on a strict exacting timetable but it always works period. Show me where it hasn't, except for pre 9/11. The only recorded instance where interest rates were continually cut over a one year period and the market kept tanking.

Show me where this pattern occured in the past. As far as comercial aviation, if there's another flight blown up by terrorists, I'd like to see you get your soccer mom into an airplane. Mine ain't going. It will be all but dead or comatose. Short of every person getting a full body cavity search commercial aviation will be dead.

[KC_for_Freedom]

I agree, air travel is only marginally better. This engineer has informed the company that travel is out for the near term. But I am choosing not to travel because some of my most immediate travel safety aspects have not been implemented:
1. Pilots with firearms
2. Police allowed to carry on board
3. Profile search with two week check-in screen of Id
4. 100 % bagage screen or 100 % bomb proof bagage bays

I am tired of the half measures and I am very tired of hearing about N. Minetas family during WWII.

[appeal2]

Agree with all of the above. If the guy can pilot a plane with 300 people on board and we can trust him to do that then we can trust him to carry a piece with Glaser safety rounds and allow all retired and active cops to carry aboard.