Posted on 03/18/2002 11:46:43 AM PST by kattracks
Bill Simon, the California Republican gubernatorial candidate the experts said couldn't beat former LA mayor Dick Riordan in the March 5 primary, and would lose badly if he ever had to face Governor Gray Davis in November, is now a whopping seven points ahead of Davis a new poll shows.
According to Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), a nationally recognized political polling firm retained by the Simon camp, Simon leads with 48 percent to Davis' 41 percent.
Even more bad news for Davis - fully 50 percent of California voters have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Despite expert opinions that Davis would be unbeatable in a race against the conservative Simon, the poll revealed that Gray Davis is extremely vulnerable in his re-election campaign, and that California voters are looking for new leadership according to the Simon campaign.
Breakdowns of the poll show:
- That among women, a group allegedly hostile to Simon, he actually leads Davis by a 46 percent to 43 percent margin. Among men Simon leads Davis 51 percent to 39 percent.
- Davis' heavily criticized record as California's Governor has even diminished his support among his fellow Democrats. While 81% of Republicans support Simon, Davis gets the support of merely 63% of Democrats.
- Pro-Simon supporters are more solid in their backing of the conservative businessman than pro-Davis supporters are of their man. 71% of Republicans strongly support Simon while only 48% of Democrats are solid in their support of Davis.
- Simon's strong showing is statewide. He leads in every media market of the state except San Francisco.
Among the major media markets Simon's lead is dramatic:
SAN DIEGO SIMON 57% DAVIS 33%
SACRAMENTO SIMON 52% DAVIS 34%
LOS ANGELES SIMON 49% DAVIS 40%
SAN FRANCISCO SIMON 38% DAVIS 54%
According to Simon campaign spokesmen, Davis image problems and poor job performance have only 36% of voters saying they want to re-elect him," the Simon campaign says "A startling 55% of voters said 'a new person should be elected Governor of California.' Historically when such a number is higher than 50%, it has foreshadowed a resounding defeat for the incumbent on Election Day."
"The primary election campaign which focused on Bill Simon as the candidate of ideas has resonated well with California voters," said Simon' campaign chief strategist, Sal Russo. "While Gray Davis is focused on blaming everybody else for his failed leadership, voters are responding to Bill Simon's message of ideas for solving California's problems."
The pressure of a failing campaign on a beleaguered Davis' may be getting to him. In an interview with the San Diego Union Tribune last Thursday in response to questions about his handling of the state's energy crisis he snapped: "I kept the lights on. And this sounds a little presumptuous, but I think I should at least get a round of applause. I don't get squat."
When told that the main criticism against him is that he panicked and signed long-term contracts at a very high cost Davis erupted.
"If I didn't panic, you wouldn't be able to put out your paper. I saved this friggin' paper. I kept the lights on in this state. Do you understand that? I kept the lights on."
For Davis, a full seven months before the November election, the lights may already be going out for his re-election hopes.
Yes, it looks like this is going to be an ugly campaign. But intuition tells me that somehow Simon is going to pull out a narrow victory over Davis. I know Davis is going to get stomped in Orange, Riverside, and San Diego counties and in the agricultural areas of the Central & Imperial vallies. It's a question of whether Davis can pull enough votes out of the Democratic urban areas of LA, San Francisco, and Oakland. Let's not get overconfident folks, this is going to be close. We're going to need a big Republican turnout and I think Simon will get it.
The Davis Administration has done a terrible job at managing the electric power issue and Simon will be able to pound on this issue with a strong reaction from the voters. Believe me, it wasn't anything Davis did that kept the lights on here in 2002. It was the realization by Calif. residents that we were in a huge crisis that lead to major energy conservation by individuals and businesses. It's this reduction in demand, also spurred by higher electric rates, that saved this state from blackouts and possible bankruptcy. Everyone here knows the truth: Davis and his people got us into this mess and it was ordinary Californians who prevented disaster.
I'm wondering if Bush's folks were engaging in a double-blind strategery, knowing that Davis would try to influence the primary.
If the campaign turns on the real issues here in California, Davis will lose in a landslide.
But I'm not terribly optimistic that Davis will allow it to be issues-based, because he KNOWS he's a worthless twit.
Of course, whatever the current polling numbers suggest, the fact is that it's seven-and-one-half months until the election, and Grayout Davis is sitting on something like $50 million--and if that runs short, there are any number of special interests (unions, Hollywood, etc.) who would be thrilled to give him as much more as he thinks he needs.
Calm Down Mr Governor. Here's your meds. Be a good boy and we'll loosen your straight jacket.
This is like a war. This is worse than being in Vietnam. This is a full-out war against me.
That quote will come in handy later, I am sure.
Now if we can just get the same seven-point news for Talent over Carnahan (MO), Alexander in TN, Bush over Reno (FL) to name a few...
Obviously Gray-out spent his time in 'Nam fighting a rear guard from a bar stool in Saigon. Wonder if he was a member of that crack outfit Private Gore belonged to?
I'm not surprised that Davis trails everywhere but in the SF Bay Area. The Bay Area (where I was born and raised) would vote for Joseph Stalin if he were pro-gay and pro-abortion.
Hmmmm . . . only 54% for Davis in SF. If this is an accurate poll (likely voters, etc.) that's really bad news for Davis. This early in the campaign his stronghold should be much higher. In the general election in 1998 Davis had 80% against Lungren in SF.
I hope it's a good poll.
And according to a polling firm retained by Paul Rubens, Pee Wee Herman is the most popular children's character in the enitre world.
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