Oil embargo suicidal for Arabs: Saudi oil experts

AFP - Jordan Times ^ | April 12 2002

[iav2]

Oil embargo suicidal for Arabs — Saudi oil experts

RIYADH (AFP) — A total embargo by Arab and Muslim oil producers would be economically and politically more harmful to Arabs than to the United States and other Western countries, Saudi energy experts say. The best way to press the United States into action to halt the Israeli military offensive against the Palestinians is to revive the Arab economic boycott against the Jewish state, experts told AFP.

“The market share of Gulf states and other Arab countries now stands at half of what it was in 1973,” when Arabs first imposed an oil embargo against the West, and would thus be less effective, Saudi expert Ihsan Bu-Hulaiga said.

Bu-Hulaiga, a member of the kingdom's Shura Consultative Council, believes that even if Iran and Libya joined Iraq, which suspended oil exports on Monday, it would have “no catastrophic impact on the international oil market.”

“There are already surplus supplies of seven million barrels a day, which is equal to the output quotas of the three countries. The impact would be minimal,” he told AFP.

Bu-Hulaiga said a collective Arab oil embargo — a very remote possibility after OPEC assurances that Libya and Iran will stand back — would be “close to suicide, particularly on part of the Gulf Arab states” which are faced with budget deficits and economic difficulties.

Politically, such a step would be totally unwise as it “boosts the enemies of Arabs and the just Palestinian cause rather than friends,” he said.

A Gulf oil expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, said if Arab oil producers did join in a collective embargo it would amount to “shooting oneself in the foot.”

A total oil embargo will negatively affect friends and foes alike and will only increase “public anger in the world against Arabs,” the expert added.

Bu-Hulaiga said that Arabs should now revive the economic boycott against Israel by adopting selective and intelligent sanctions against companies dealing with or backing the Jewish state.

Arab members of the 11-state cartel of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have a total production quota of 13.1 million barrels a day, with Saudi Arabia topping the list with 7.053 million barrels a day.

In Paris, US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said Wednesday he understood Saudi Arabia to be prepared to make up any shortfall caused by the Iraqi move.

Oil prices have been volatile in recent trading, driven by concerns that spiralling Mideast violence would jeopardise Gulf crude shipments, although they were stable in London on Wednesday.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have strongly rejected calls for the use of the “oil weapon” against the West. And on Wednesday, non-OPEC oil exporter Norway said it could reverse previous output cuts if oil prices remained high.

“I have been officially informed by Iran and Libya that they will not join the embargo,” the cartel's head Ali Rodriguez said.

But he added: “Supplies can be affected according to the extension of the conflict” in the Middle East. “We hope the conflict will not extend,” he told reporters.

Iraq's decision to halt crude exports for 30 days in retaliation for Israel's West Bank blitz “will not help the Palestinian cause,” an OPEC source said, adding that OPEC remained opposed to “any form of oil embargo.”

Iran said Tuesday it would halt supplies to countries with ties to Israel “at the appropriate time”, after supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Arab and Muslim oil producers to implement a “symbolic” one-month embargo in support of the Palestinians.

Libya backed Iran's call “on condition that Arab and Islamic crude producers agree to it.”

Tehran and Tripoli exported oil as usual Wednesday.

Oil prices on the London market fell back Thursday ahead of US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the Middle East, with Brent North Sea crude for May delivery slipping to $25.66 a barrel from 25.77 at the opening and 26.01 at Wednesday's close.

[Kobyashi1942]

Hope Mr. Bush's buddies, the House of Saud, do well in these trying times.

[The Great Satan]

Oil embargo suicidal for Arabs — Saudi oil experts

That's a thumbs up, I take it?

[vbmoneyspender]

If they start an embargo while we are at war, Bush will have his opening to declare an national emergency and open up drilling in ANWR, the Gulf of Mexico, etc. Once that happens, we would be able to make up any shortfall in the world market, which would totally eliminate the leverage the Arabs have over us right now where the Western world is, in effect, financing the terrorist activities that the Saudis and Iran and Iraq currently carry out against us.

[Blackyce]

Yeah, when did suicidal insanity become a consideration for the Arabs?

[PA Engineer]

I keep wondering if Iraq is building up fuel reserves for its mechanized divisions. Maybe this is a bit of tinfoil thinking, but the maniac is crazy like a fox. Has anybody else thought of this? If his embargo is ineffective then could Sadam have other motives?

[My Identity]

The market share of Gulf states and other Arab countries now stands at half of what it was in 1973... a collective Arab oil embargo would be close to suicide, particularly on part of the Gulf Arab states which are faced with budget deficits and economic difficulties.

The cool thing is, this is all true. Arab states rely on oil revenue for virtually 100% of their income. The West relies on Arab OPEC states for about 25% of their oil. And with Venezuela and Russia coming back online, supplies should ease even further.

Now if only we can keep Congress from mucking things up like they did in '73, we'll be ahead of the game. (Hey! I can dream, can't I?)

[The Great Satan]

If his embargo is ineffective then could Sadam have other motives?

It would appear that Saddam has an ace up his sleeve in terms of the anthrax, and that will make the final conflict with him very dangerous for us. But, that's a MAD option, a weapon of last resort. It doesn't change the fact that, in every other way, he's weak. His oil embargo threat is empty (doubly so with the fall of Chavez), and can only backfire.

[PA Engineer]

I was thinking also of the long supply lines across Iraq and Jordon for any mechanized division. You may be right on the other hand in that Sadam is simply insane.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Most interesting!

In this case an oil embargo would do violence to their own people!

To find all articles tagged or indexed using Islamic_Violence

Click here: Islamic_Violence

[LarryLied]

Hope Mr. Bush's buddies, the House of Saud, do well in these trying times.

How is he their friend? Bush wants to open up America for drilling . Lieberman is filibustering the bill to do so. As are Schumer, Boxer, Feingold, Feinstein, Levin and other Democrats.

[powderhorn]

I keep wondering if Iraq is building up fuel reserves for its mechanized divisions. Maybe this is a bit of tinfoil thinking, but the maniac is crazy like a fox. Has anybody else thought of this? If his embargo is ineffective then could Sadam have other motives?

I thought I was the only person wearing a tinfoil hat today. On the other hand, maybe he's just trying to do some of his own "coalition building."....Na, to obvious. If he does anything, it's sneaky. He's been hurting for a long time, maybe he just wants his Arab neighbors to hurt as bad as him.

He's so sneaky, he makes tinfoil thinking just good common sense.

[vbmoneyspender]

His mech divisions won't do him any good whether they are gased up or not. His problem now will be the same one he had in 1991. It's called JSTARS, which is basically a giant metal detector in the sky. Any tank, APC, half-track, motorized artillery, etc, that Hussein tries to move, JSTARS can track and then direct our airplanes in on. JSTARS was what tracked the Iraqi convoy fleeing from Kuwait City and then enabled the Warthogs to home in on and turn the convoy into the highway of death.

[vbmoneyspender]

This link should give you a feel for what JSTARS is capable of. You will note in the discussion that JSTARS detection of the Iraqi retreat from Kuwait City is cited as an example of its ability to provide realtime info regarding mech movements by oppositions forces.

[capt. norm]

If they can't sell oil, all they have left is thousands of square miles of kitty litter.
(Try to picture a "kitty litter embargo" and the hardship that could cause.)

[Lexington Green]

Every time you fill up the car, you can avoid putting more money into the coffers of Saudi Arabia. Just buy from gas companies that don't import their oil from the Saudis. Nothing is more frustrating than the feeling that every time I fill-up the tank, I am sending my money to people who are trying to kill me, my family and my friends. I thought it might be interesting foryou to know which oil companies are the best to buy gas from.

Major companies that import Middle Eastern oil (for the period 9/1/00 -8/31/01).

Shell 205,742,000 barrels
Chevron/Texaco 144,332,000
Exxon/Mobil 130,082,000
Marathon 117,740,000
Amoco 62,231,000

If you do the math at $30/barrell, these imports amount to over $18 BILLION!

Here are some large companies that do not import Middle Eastern oil:

Citgo 0 barrels
Sunoco 0
Conoco 0
Sinclair 0
BP/Phillips 0

All of this information is available from the Department of Energy and can be easily documented. Refineries located in the U.S. are required to state where they get their oil and how much they are importing. They reporton a monthly basis. Keep this list in your car; share it with friends.
Stop paying for terrorism.

[Free the USA]

Check the Bump List folders for articles related to and descriptions of the above topic(s) or for other topics of interest.

[Southack]

"“The market share of Gulf states and other Arab countries now stands at half of what it was in 1973,” when Arabs first imposed an oil embargo against the West, and would thus be less effective, Saudi expert Ihsan Bu-Hulaiga said."

Translation: Norway's North Sea oil field, the two new Russian oil pipelines, and Chavez getting booted out of Venezuela all combine to end our monopoly. If we cut our exports, we'll simply lose more market share to our competitors...

[Grampa Dave]

Go to this link for some great news out of Venezuala.

The people of this brave little country have gotten rid of Fidel's buddy as their president. They will be selling their oil to meet the deman not obeying the Opecker Princes.

This could be the beginning of the end of the vile Opecker Princes and Opec: (The beginning of the end of the vile Opecker Princes and Opec!)