Another Poll Confirms... SIMON LEADS DAVIS

e-mail I received ^ | Tuesday, April 16, 2002 | The RMR INSIDER

[Grampa Dave]

No more insanity! Vote for Simon!

[Bagehot]

Not many single issue voters in Gubernatorial races.

I hope.

[Coop]

This poll should help Simon's fundraising.

[John Jorsett]

The 'somewhat likely' voters are more Democrat than the 'very likely' ones, so I think that this poll might even be understating the support for Simon among those who'll actually end up at the polls. That's my fervent hope anyway.

[Coop]

http://www.simonforgovernor.com/

[Clemenza]

It's a poor position to be in, having to say 'vote against that guy' rather than 'vote for me'

This strategy worked for George Pataki in 1994. I worked on that campaign, in which the operative phrase to the voters was "ABC" (Anybody But Cuomo).

[Clemenza]

Excellent analysis.

[Coop]

It's a fine strategy for a challenger, but a lousy one for an incumbent. But I'm not saying it can't work for Davis.

[ElkGroveDan]

DAVIS REACTS TO THE NEW POLL NUMBERS!

[Gophack]

Let's be sure not to let complacency set in.

I agree. FReepers Unite! We have a winner with Simon! We can not work too much or too hard to get rid of Davis!

We can not be complacent!

[thucydides]

The problem for Davis is, once your own negatives are so high, going to a sleazy campaign backfires.

[Gophack]

On the Pataki race, Pataki won because everyone hated Cuomo AND Pataki had no major baggage. There wasn't a lovefest with Pataki, and he didn't have the conservatives overwhelming support, but he didn't have major problems and Cuomo was just unacceptable.

Here, Simon has two advantages over Davis. First, people really don't like Davis. This poll shows his unfavorables are over 50%. That's incredible. And, antedotally, at the grocery store the checker commented on my Bill Simon t-shirt asking, "Is he running against Davis?" I said yes, and she said, "I don't know him, but I'll vote for him. I can't stand Davis."

Second, Simon has the support of the conservative base. While the liberal press and RINOs want you to think that this is nothing but a small group of rich white men and the women they oppress, conservatives make up a sizable minority of the electorate; they are more likely to vote than other groups of voters; and when they support someone, they support them 110% -- with money, time and sweat.

As long as Simon doesn't backtrack on the conservative issues he won the primary on -- which he hasn't and I don't believe he will -- he can focus on working on the "middle" -- the independent voters, the liberal Republicans, and the conservative Democrats who just don't like Davis and want someone -- anyone who has a decent idea -- to win.

Go Simon!

[Diddle E. Squat]

Today's USSC ruling on virtual kiddie porn provides an opportunity for the GOP to mute the Democrat abortion card. I outline that possibility here.

Bottom line, which do soccer moms value more: defending access to abortion(which they might need only a few times in their lives) from a perceived threat, or protecting their children from a threat potentially encountered on a daily basis?

[Stand Watch Listen]

Be careful about these early polls. Sometimes they are utilized to 'wake-up' and place 'the fear of the Lord' into the Dem volunteers/voters and more specifically the Dem ($) contributors.

[The Vast Right Wing]

Tell ya what, this rich white guy and the woman he oppresses are pulling the lever for Simon. Go Bill!!

[Gophack]

You're right, we need to be diligent. But the fact is that we also to keep our people mobilized. If all they hear is abortion abortion abortion from Davis and the liberal media, they may get discouraged. Seeing that Davis' abortion only strategy isn't working will help pump them up and get them working for Simon.

It's a fine balance, but I'm all for keeping our troops mobilized.

Go Simon!

[ElkGroveDan]

[Redcloak]

If this is accurate, then this is really bad news for Davis. A "Somewhat likely voter" poll should favor a Democrat almost as strongly as a simple "registered voter" poll. It's the "likely voter" polls that often reveal a Republican's advantage in a race. (Republican voters are more likely than their Democrat counterparts to take the time to vote.)

[daviddennis]

This is going to be exaggerated in this election, since Democrats are not enthusiastic about their guy. The LA Weekly crowd is going to tell people to hold their noses and vote for Davis, but many Democrats won't bother going to the polls just to hold their noses.

Republicans, on the other hand, have someone to genuinely like in Simon. So if turnout is key to this race, and it probably is, Simon will win.

Not saying that we should be complacent, of course.

D