Simon is a successful businessman, but this is now viewed as political baggage. Add in a Los Angeles jury's recent verdict against Simon's investment firm (and others) in a case involving a failed business partnership.Posted on 08/19/2002 6:39:58 AM PDT by Pokey78
Not for the first time, the liberal media has California all wrong. And for the umpteenth time, California Republicans seem prepared to believe it.
In reality, the California governor's race remains Bill Simon's to lose, and absent major mistakes, he will win.
For the last ten weeks, the Los Angeles Times, San Francisco Chronicle, and Sacramento Bee have been mounting a rat-a-tat drumbeat: The Simon effort is faltering, stumbling, failing.
Simon is a successful businessman, but this is now viewed as political baggage. Add in a Los Angeles jury's recent verdict against Simon's investment firm (and others) in a case involving a failed business partnership.
Simon's campaign is in disarray, changing campaign managers and trimming staff.
The White House is troubled, complete with on-the-record (but on-background) warnings about when the president's men will abandon the Simon effort.
Finally, the New York Times chimes in with the ebullient headline "In California, Blue Skies Fade for Republicans."
They wish. The reality on the ground is quite different, and a majority of California voters have long since decided they're open to not having Gray Davis as governor for four more years. And there is little that his $50 million war chest can do to change this dynamic.
The reasons for this are obvious, but curiously missing from the campaign dialogue.
Davis was elected in 1998, when California's good times were rolling, and the state's coffers were full with capital-gains revenues from the dot.com bubble.
Instead of growing the economy, he grew the state bureaucracy, hiring tens of thousands of new employees and sending the bill to the private sector, which then tanked and dragged down the state economy long before September 11.
The man comically described by E. J. Dionne as "America's best political consultant" butchered the state's electricity crisis, making panicky decisions he seeks to reverse or non-decisions he pretends did not happen. Davis alone saddled California with massive debt because he bought electricity at an all-time high and is selling now at an all-time low.
Even with substantial Democrat majorities in the state legislature, he can't even get a budget passed, which the law requires be done by July 1. Today, the state-budget deficit is nearly $25 billion — an amount equal to one-fourth of the state budget itself.
This is not complicated stuff, but it might as well be the Riddle of the Sphinx to the press corps. For eight weeks, they hounded Simon to release his personal tax returns, and the campaign stalled. As a follow-up, the verdict against Simon's firm was splashed across newspaper headlines, and the campaign staggered.
The inevitable result: The White House has said it may "walk after Labor Day" and always-say-die Republicans insist they told-us-so all along.
All this fails to grasp fundamental truths: Gray Davis hasn't been an effective manager — he's been a disaster. He's not a likeable leader — his profanity-laced tirades are public record. He has no plan for a better future — by a two-to-one margin, Californians think the state is heading in the wrong direction.
Still, Davis should be feared, if for no other reason than his indomitable will to win. The joke goes that his personality is like his name. Get it? Wrong. A pompadoured junkyard dog is more like it.
In a debate about California's failing schools, snarled freeways, crumbling infrastructure, job-killing regulations, and diminished quality of life, Davis is road kill. So he's waging the campaign by other means. This will not sustain until November.
Additionally, making campaign assumptions during the dog days of summer just won't hunt because voters haven't begun to form their inevitable judgments. And in California, television is king and print coverage (even the finest op-eds) matters little.
Remember, from the end of the March primary through much of the summer, "best consultant" Davis spent millions on television ads praising himself — and plunged in the polls. A similar drop can happen again.
Like the boxing fan he is, Bill Simon knows that taking punishment goes with the territory. He's been the underdog before and now must resolve to counterpunch. Hard.
The calamity that has been the Davis administration will not go completely overlooked by the California electorate. And when that happens, as it surely will, the battle will be joined.
Gray Davis's thin skin is legendary. It's my suspicion he has the glass jaw to match.
— Jonathan Wilcox is a communications consultant who was the chief speechwriter during the Bill Simon for Governor primary campaign.
Simon won the primary because he was the best candidate. Nothing has changed.
Thanks, and I agree with you.
Simon is appearing on KFI 640 radio (a Rabbi's show )on Sunday evenings at 4:45 pm to 5:00 pm.KFI also live streams at
http://www.kfi640.com/main.html ,
He is presenting well, as opposed to his last trip to the airwaves.
Previously about two weeks ago, Simon BLEW his opportunity on KEN and John, KFI 640. They have a huge audience in afternoon - evening drive time. They were poised to verbally beat the hell out of Davis on a daily basis. Either Simon or his staff failed to seize the moment. Consequently, when Simon was plastered all over the news as a thief, Ken and John began bad mouthing him as well as Davis.
Don't these people have someone who presents well on radio (like Rep. John Campbell a former accountant) to call the show regularly stay in touch create and maintain good will ? Who is doing their media relations ???
calgov2002:
 calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register |
See this one:
Who are the 'Republicans?' who don't heartily endorse and support the WINNERS of their primary against the DemocRATS?
Who is debtriden Gov. Gray Davis?
Dan Lungren not only lost, he fell backward off his campaign horse with his foot caught in the harness, and was last seen being dragged off into the Mojave desert at full gallup. Could be he's still being hauled through the cactus and sagebrush today.
I hear this over and over, but one thing I never hear about is something I have personal experience with: Keogh conversions. In 1998, people could take their existing retirement accounts and convert them to Keogh retirement accounts. The advantage of a Keogh is that all future gains are tax-free. The downside was that the conversion had to be treated as though it were ordinary income in the year of conversion, so there were big taxes. Nevertheless, the upside of no further taxation was such that many people converted, so their 'income' took an enormous jump in 1998. To soften the blow, Congress allowed those first 1998 converters to spread the 'income' over 4 years, and California went along with that.
I converted myself, and my income taxes to both the state and feds just about quadrupled for those 4 years. 2001 was the last year for which I had to pay those big taxes, and now my witholding is back to more normal levels. I think California benefitted big-time by the increased revenues from conversion, revenues which they will never see again. I'd really love to see a breakdown as to just how much this contributed to the state during those magical 4 years of the "Davis boom"; I'll bet it's a bunch. If the budget prognosticators haven't factored this into their projections for upcoming years, then the revenue shortfall will be much larger than they expect.
Speaking of thin skins, the morning host on KFI AM640 in Los Angeles called Davis, on-air, a "two bit whore who'd sell his grandmother for a quarter." He made mention the other day that the Davis people called up 'livid' over the remark. He took the opportunity to repeat it. The afternoon hosts savaged Davis over the anti-SUV bill he rammed through the legislature, and directed listeners to call the press office because calling the public comment number just shunted folks to voice mail. The press office, was, to say the least, very very unhappy about this. They accused KFI of endangerng the public by blocking lines that might have been needed if some emergency took place.
I heard a Simon interview this morning (KFI calls Simon "the last best hope to get rid of Gray Davis"), and Simon pointed out that his campaign against Riordan was conducted much the same was as the present one: husband scarce monetary resources until near the last, and then go on TV with advertising that introduces him to the public. That's his strategy in this general election as well.
Simon makes a weekly appearance on the Rabbi Mentz show (it's not a religious program - he's a conservative talk host) at 4:45 pm on Sundays, where he talks about the campaign and takes questions from listeners.
I love KFI.
Like to see Petey Jennings keel-hauled over a 50 ft tall Saguaro....
Nothing left to say other than let's gear up for the 2004 elections.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.