Millions in Negative Ads Send Davis Backwards

email | September 5, 2002 | Russo Marsh & Rogers

[ElkGroveDan]

THE INSIDER:
Political Information Network
THE AUTHORITATIVE GUIDE FOR SACRAMENTO INSIDERS AND POLITICAL LEADERS

M E M O R A N D U M
TO: Sacramento Political Insiders & Interested Parties
FM: Russo Marsh + Rogers, Inc.
RE: Davis Negative Ad Campaign Backfires
DT: September 5, 2002

SIMON, DAVIS ALMOST EVEN IN NEW FIELD POLL
MILLIONS IN NEGATIVE ADS SEND DAVIS BACKWARDS

The latest Field Poll, released this morning, has confirmed what we have always known - the people of California do not want Gray Davis to serve as their governor any longer. After watching Gray Davis fail at nearly every major challenge in his governorship - through an energy crisis, broken schools and a massive budget deficit - voters have determined it is time to find someone new to lead California.

The Davis plan to bury Bill Simon with millions in television advertisements has utterly failed, with the Field Poll showing Davis and Simon locked in a near dead heat of 38 percent to 31 percent.

"The most important figure remains Davis' historically low level of support," said Sal Russo, Simon campaign strategist. "Just 60 days from Election Day, Gray Davis is not only below the traditional, 'warning-sign' level of 50 percent, but also has now sunk below 40 percent. Governors that are polling below 40 percent of the vote this close to Election Day do NOT get re-elected. Maybe that is why Gray Davis won't commit to multiple debates.

"Counting the statewide radio buy made last year to try to prop up his support during the energy crisis, Gray Davis has spent nearly $30 million on paid advertising. But the persistence with which Davis' standing has remained at historic lows, despite this massive expenditure in paid advertising, highlights the troubled governor's biggest problem: The electorate has already concluded that his re-election is not an acceptable consideration for California's future. They are looking for reasons to support Bill Simon.

"Like the Titanic, Gray Davis steamed straight ahead, thinking he could not be hurt. But he hit an iceberg called the energy crisis. And also like the Titanic, he is now sinking into a watery grave.

"Bill Simon has remained competitive in this race because he is a better candidate and has a better vision for California. While Davis has focused on misleading and false advertising against Simon, voters are smart enough to discount everything he says. Now that Bill Simon is beginning his television campaign to re-acquaint voters with his record as a federal prosecutor, charity leader and successful family businessman, you are going to see the same surge in the polls as you saw in the Primary Election. It will be only a short time before Simon passes Davis in the next round of polls," Russo concluded.

[ElkGroveDan]

At this rate, by the time Davis spends his entore $50 million, Simon will be up 10 points

[eureka!]

LOL. Simon is in the hunt big time. I only hope his camp has a huge GOTV effort underway....

[spokeshave]

Send money to the greeen guy...better green than grey

[Petronski]

...with the Field Poll showing Davis and Simon locked in a near dead heat of 38 percent to 31 percent.

Believe me, I sympathize. But this sentence makes no sense to me.

[section9]

First, major pinging action to Coop!

I have a bet with Coop that Simon won't be able to get up off the mat in time. If Simon wins, as I hope he does, I lose the bet and owe Coop a six pack of his choice of beer (stout, ale, what have you).

What is amazing to me is how Simon has hung in there after the fraud judgement came down. Then there was the "gay" imbroglio.

If Simon can put the b.s. behind him and get his campaign in a groove, Simon can win this thing. Lyn Nofzyger's statement in the L.A. Slimes of today did not help at all.

One disturbing thing. The same Field Poll has Davis up by two points in the Inland Empire. Simon must take the Inland Empire by five points, methinks, to counteract Davis' advantage in LA and the Bay Area.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[eureka!]

"Send money to the greeen guy...better green than grey"

I would if I could. I'm limitd to contributing to Simon, and I have. I do hope the green guy gets some traction for a bunch of Rat "protest" votes against Grayout...

[gubamyster]

Why isn't Simon putting out ads saying that Davis signed legislation designed to take away your SUV and hike the price of every gallon of gas sold in CA? If the Dems can scare old people, then we can scare everybody who drives a vehicle.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

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[Coop]

...with the Field Poll showing Davis and Simon locked in a near dead heat of 38 percent to 31 percent.

It actually is a dead heat, despite what this says. The poll's margin of error is 3.6%. That means Davis could conceivably have 34.4% (38-3.6) and Simon have 34.6% (31+3.6). So it's a statistical tie.

Having said that, the farther out you get in spread between the candidates, the less likely it is that it will fall within the margin of error. In other words, though it's possible this poll could reveal Simon is actually ahead of Davis, the likelihood is fairly low.

The 7-point deficit means very little to me, although it does make all the folks blubbering about Simon being toast look rather foolish. The key number is Davis' 38%, as this announcement points out. Rod Grams of MN had better numbers.

[ElkGroveDan]

GOOD NEWS PING

[Jagdgewehr]

Optimistic bump.

[eureka!]

I understand your position and always find your comments bright and insightful on many subjects. So too here, especially the inland numbers.

Notwithstanding, there's a long way to votin' time and my optimism lies in Grayout's negatives. An incumbent simply cannot materially raise those up in the time left. The main of Californians, Rats included, detest Grayout. All he can do is drag Simon down with him and he has had some success there, thanks to the presstitutes and some missteps and snafu's by Simon's camp. Simon needs to posit positive things and is trying to do so. Iraq will (as with all races) drown out a lot but I think that Coop will be drinking your beer in November. ;^)

[DWPittelli]

If it's the standard 95% confidence interval, then the odds are only 2.5% that it's even or Simon is ahead.

[ElkGroveDan]

One disturbing thing. The same Field Poll has Davis up by two points in the Inland Empire. Simon must take the Inland Empire by five points, methinks, to counteract Davis' advantage in LA and the Bay Area.

Well the Field poll is always skewed about 7-10 points to the left compared with the other political polls and the eventual outcomes. (They oversample counties like San Francisco, and they have voters self-identify their liklihood to vote).

That said, if the Field poll says Davis is up by 2 in the I.I. then it probably means that Simon is up by at least 3 or 4 -- right in the ball park.

Put me in coach, I'm ready to play, today, look at me, I can be, centerfield!

We all need to go to bat to get rid of the worst governor in CA history!

[Inspectorette]

This is indeed good news, but the potential for massive Dem voter fraud in San Francisco and LA is a big problem. As Mr. Inspectorette likes to say, Dems don't need to win elections, they just steal them.

[tubebender]

I'm not surprised...Doofus has been running that stupid black and white ad about Simon for three weeks. If that is the best he can do with his bucks he is toast. If it was not for the press giving him a free ride he would be down 30 points from the latest polls.

[Coop]

If it's the standard 95% confidence interval, then the odds are only 2.5% that it's even or Simon is ahead.

I'm sure it was the standard 95% confidence, but I'll have to take your word on the 2.5%. :-) But thanks for the assist!

[editor-surveyor]

Simon will only win if we get off our collective butts and work the phones and doorbells of our neighborhoods to counter the media's heavy bias.

Stop the sniping and feckless negative commentary and get to work.

[Saundra Duffy]

I love it! Go, Simon!!!!!!!

[oc-flyfish]

Good news ping.