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If someone could put up a picture of this map on this thread, it would be helpful.

Here’s my take- barring something unexpected, the nominee will be either Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney. There are 97 electoral votes up for grabs on this map.

Pennsylvania is a key. Obama won it by a comfortable margin last time, but is now unpopular there. But he still has the bastions of Philly and Pittsburg, which could be enough to win it again. If Rick Santorum is the nominee, he would do well, but not be guaranteed to win there. An aristocratic plutocrat like Romney wouldn’t appeal there. However, he would still have a shot.

Ohio is another state where Santorum would be a pretty good fit, and Romney far less so. Obama just narrowly won it last time and is highly unpopular there. Santorum’s Midwestern working class Catholic roots should be appealing. Romney could still win it, but as with Pennsylvania, his chances would rest entirely on being the alternative to Obama.

Wisconsin bears close watching. This summer, Governor Scott Walker faces a recall vote. The outcome of this will reflect on Republican chances this fall. Santorum would be polarizing there, while Romney would be less so. There will be a U.S. Senate race there and the likely Democrat nominee will be very polarizing.

North Carolina just barely went for Obama last time, but he will make it a top priority this year. Much population growth is in areas that are trending DemocRAT. Romney may appeal to some of its swing voters, white-collar workers and entrepreneurs who support free enterprise and don’t place importance on cultural issues. How will its Protestant Evangelicals react to a strong Catholic like Santorum? Time will tell.

Virginia bears close watching. Obama won it by more than expected against McCain and much of its population growth is from government workers. Mitt Romney might appeal to swing voters in northern Virginia. Rick Santorum is expected to appeal in the southern and western parts of the state, but these areas are strongly Protestant. Popular Governor Bob McConnell is considered a possible running mate for either candidate and he could easily tip the state to the GOP.

Iowa is the Vermont of the midwest and I expect Obama to win it. However, Santorum should be able to swing working-class Catholic Democrats to his column while winning big margins in the conservative western parts of the state, making it close. I don’t see how Romney can win here.

Obama won big here in Nevada 2008, but the state’s economy has tanked on his watch. Nevada has a significant Mormon population and Romney will have natural appeal.
He may also appeal to its white collar voters, particularly in Las Vegas. There is also Libertarian sentiment there. If Santorum is the nominee, we can probably write it off.

Colorado also went for Obama by more than expected. Romney may have appeal, both in the Denver suburbs and at the western edge of the state, which has a higher-than-average population of Mormons. Rick Santorum might have some appeal to Hispanics, who are overwhelmingly Catholic. I still give Obama a slight advantage there.

A few other states could tip the other way than what they’re currently leaning. Florida leans our way, but is very unpredictable. We can’t count on it. New Hampshire went for Obama comfortably before and another win there can’t be ruled out. Maine went heavily Republican in 2010 and Romney may appeal there. Montana almost voted for Obama in 2008 and he’ll try to flip it to offset losing Indiana, which he unexpectedly won. Democrats claim that Arizona only voted for McCain out of home-state loyalty and will spend heavily there this year. Running mates could put in play states which currently aren’t. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie probably can’t tip his home state in spite of his popularity there, but he would make it competitive, forcing Obama to spend money in its costly media market. Same with former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who has won statewide against considerable odds twice.