Let’s panic!
The pollsters are going all out trying to prop up their boy Barry and make this a race. I smell shades of 2010 myself.
Sure a lot of concern trolls popping up lately.
My tagline.
I think it is a credible pollster who is using flawed and mistaken turnout assumptions. We will find out in two weeks.
Very clever reversal of their own stupid math.
I think it will be more fun to see who does and who does not read your whole post. lol
Suppose you’re correct. Suppose, just suppose, hypothetically that you’re wrong and that the Communist from Kenya wins. What will you say then?
Troll!
I personally think no poll is meaningful. Some poll questions are skewed to elicit a certain response. Sometimes the sample favors voters of one party or the other. Sometimes people answer questions by telling the pollster what they think the pollster wants to hear. And then there is that pesky margin of error.
Someone once said the only poll that counts is the one on election day. No need to get into an uproar over an unfavorable poll. And for that matter, I wouldn’t break out the champagne over a favorable poll either.
+7 Democrat is all you need to know about the quality of the Poll.
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. That’s a fact.
I agree with your analysis; but it's kinda like shooting (steel)fish in a barrel. Has TIPP ever actually been right?
I used to know a Pole who was all right!
Then there are those Dems who when polled say they are voting party line....even though they are smart enough to say that and vote R.
It’s a Poll dance.
Any sitting President that is below 50% in the polls at this close to the election will not be re-elected. The only time I know of this happening was when Bill Clinton had Ross Perot running as a third party candidate!
Proof this poll is shite: They have Romney and Obama running about equal among men. So that tells me this poll is likely overweighted with African Americans and/or young voters. It’s a propaganda poll pure and simple.
My guess as to what is wrong with the IBD poll is that it does not assign “leans” the way other polls do. Note that it has Obama at 46.6, which is only 0.5 higher than he is in the RCP avg. In contrast, Mitt is at 44, or 3 entire points lower than he is in RCP. If you add 46.6 and 44, you get only 90.6, leaving almost 10 points unaccounted for. In contrast, Rasmussen has only 3 points undecided and Gallup 4—IDB, therefore has more than twice as man undecided voters as Gallup and three times as many as Rasmussen.
I suspect if a person does not initially state a preference, IBD is less likely to press for which way the person is leaning than the other two. Obama’s 47 percent—as Romney said—is pretty committed. Mitt has to cement those leaners on election day.
I watch that poll daily and posted about it on another thread.
It is actually great news considering the oversampling makes it clear Romney is ACTUALLY AHEAD.
Same with Fox’s Ohio poll yesterday, a BIGGER Dem oversample than last month’s poll and yet it shows the race closer with a slim Obama lead. It is clear he is leading in that poll in reality in Ohio as well.
A LOT can change, and I do worry about Allred’s rumor since she did not outright deny the rumor just said she doesn’t talk about client meetings.
But, we are in good shape.
Now can only hope it pulls our GOP Senate/House candidates across the finish line.