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Focus Groups And Instant Polls Won't Tell You Who 'Won' The Debate
The Huffington Post's Politics ^ | October 28, 2015 | Ariel Edwards-Levy and Natalie Jackson

Posted on 10/28/2015 4:06:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

If you’re looking forward to finding out who "won" the GOP debate just minutes or hours after it ends on Wednesday night, you'd probably be better off waiting a few days instead.

It's not that there won't be plenty of immediate data to look at, from focus groups and instant polls to social media and web traffic. But as the past few months have shown, none of those are especially reliable guides.

A focus group led by GOP pollster Frank Luntz after the first Republican debate in August suggested that voters had soured on Donald Trump -- a prediction not borne out in the business mogul's poll numbers, which continued to rise sharply.

Initial reactions to the first Democratic debate also proved to be dissimilar from the results of later polling on the race. Another Luntz focus group named Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) the clear winner, and suggested many of Clinton's supporters had deserted her. Other focus groups and instant online polls told a similar story, as did a surge of web searches and Facebook follows for Sanders. Days later, though, scientific surveys showed a more quotidian outcome: While both candidates made a good impression, the debate, if anything, strengthened Clinton's lead....

(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: California; Florida; New York; Texas; Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016debates; 2016election; arieledwardslevy; bencarson; bush; california; carlyfiorina; debates; election2016; florida; hillary; huffingtonpost; huffpo; jebbush; marcorubio; nataliejackson; newyork; tedcruz; texas; trump

1 posted on 10/28/2015 4:06:06 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They must be expecting bad news.

You know, if you look at any of these other candidates and look at their crowds, they’re pitiful. Trump’s a superstar. So let them keep playing their games. I think we’ll beat them in the end.


2 posted on 10/28/2015 4:08:09 PM PDT by Kenny (RED)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Thanks.

I predict though, there will likely be an impact on the race.

Carson will continue strong. Trump will continue to dominate. Or someone else will be a bump and start to share the lead.

One of those. We shall see.


3 posted on 10/28/2015 4:08:17 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

How do you win a “debate” that isn’t a debate?

This is how: the Left wins because the Right has allowed the Left to run the Right’s show which includes slim-to-no in-depth substance and much fluff and superficial nonsense.


4 posted on 10/28/2015 4:10:04 PM PDT by Jim W N
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

On the other hand, focus groups and instant polls may “know” who won the debate before it even happens.


5 posted on 10/28/2015 4:15:15 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Are Democrats running the Presidential election? Most of the talking heads are Democrats who will all vote for Hillary.


6 posted on 10/28/2015 4:19:55 PM PDT by FreedBird (he)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Focus groups are used to identify concepts and generally test potential outcomes.

Focus groups are good for testing movies. But that’s about it.

After a focus group in the real world, serious follow up research is done.


7 posted on 10/28/2015 4:23:58 PM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Jim 0216

Can anyone say “President Fiorina” with a straight face?


8 posted on 10/28/2015 4:41:45 PM PDT by research99
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

I am thinking that passing this latest budget is going to influence people in whom they support. This budget should crush Bush but might give Trump a bump because he is the only one pounding at the spending and what we will do.

This spending thing is really criminal and Paul Ryan is no better than Boehner.


9 posted on 10/28/2015 4:43:27 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
A focus group led by GOP pollster Frank Luntz after the first Republican debate in August suggested that voters had soured on Donald Trump.

Frank Luntz is as useless as New Coke.

10 posted on 10/28/2015 5:01:13 PM PDT by JPG (What's the difference between the Rats and the GOPe? Nothing.)
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To: research99

I can’t even get that out of my mouth.

And my mind won’t even allow the concept of “President Hillary”.


11 posted on 10/28/2015 5:30:45 PM PDT by Jim W N
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To: Jim 0216
If it were a debate...Cruz would squash all the other catadates and wipe ‘em up with the moderators
12 posted on 10/28/2015 5:52:32 PM PDT by M-cubed ( Their hope is to find a way to pick a nominee who, if elected, would actually stay the course the w)
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To: Jim 0216

Why can’t Republicans run their own debate with Mark Levin,Rush Limbaugh,Laura Ingraham?
I will tell you why,there is no conservative outlet,Fox is just as bad,they are bought and paid for.
Every election cycle is the same,left wing loons run all of them its pathetic.


13 posted on 10/28/2015 7:05:41 PM PDT by ballplayer (hvexx NKK c bmytit II iyijjhihhiyyiyiyi it iyiiy II i hi jiihi ty yhiiyihiijhijjyjiyjiiijyuiiijihyii)
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To: ballplayer

Run an internet debate with Levin, Limbaugh et al. Run it on all the conservative radio sites and with live streaming.

Live stream at Breitbart, Treehouse, Conservative news, Drudge and all others

Run bites on FB and

End run the msm


14 posted on 10/28/2015 7:11:44 PM PDT by Chickensoup (We lose our freedoms one surrender at a time)
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To: ballplayer

Keep the debate down to Trump, Cruz, Carson Paul.


15 posted on 10/28/2015 7:13:01 PM PDT by Chickensoup (We lose our freedoms one surrender at a time)
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To: ballplayer

They should. Screw the GOP head guy and his cohorts. The y should launch out on their own. They guy with the money to do it is Trump, but he doesn’t seem that bothered by it.

Somebody who has money and is a true freedom lover on the Right should BUY a new broadcasting outlet be independent and run things they want to run it.

Hopefully one of the things that happens is the dismantling of the hideous FCC. Then we’ll actually have freedom of speech again in this country.


16 posted on 10/28/2015 9:50:19 PM PDT by Jim W N
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