Posted on 04/05/2016 11:46:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With his decisive victory in Wisconsin, Sen. Ted Cruz has not only shaken up the Republican presidential race, but heading into the homestretch, he has suddenly become the odds-on favorite to win the nomination in Ohio.
With 16 primaries and caucuses remaining, Donald Trump has to win 70% of the delegates to secure the 1,237 needed to win a first ballot at the Republican convention. Several states are coming up that are more favorable territory for Trump than Cruz, especially New York and Pennsylvania where Trump still has significant leads.
Even so, winning more than two thirds of the remaining delegates is a daunting challenge for him. In the 36 primaries and caucuses leading up to Wisconsin, Trump won only 46% of the delegates. And now he heads down a tough homestretch with Cruz seizing the momentum.
In a year crammed with surprises, no one can say for sure what will unfold in Cleveland, Ohio. But there are two likely outcomes: First, Cruz and Trump have each vowed to vote against a change in the GOP's Rule 40. That's an obscure provision that requires any candidate to win at least eight primaries and caucuses before he or she can be nominated....
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
same old question, how in Sam Hill is Cruz going to get 700 more delegates? and if the Trump-won delegates he’s working are so fickle that they would change from Trump to Cruz, I wouldn’t trust them to stay with Cruz should the wind blow in a different direction
Amen to that.
BURN IT DOWN.
Yes, but I would prefer Trump win the WH.
The spin is strong in this one.
“With 16 primaries and caucuses remaining, Donald Trump has to win 70% of the delegates to secure the 1,237 needed to win a first ballot at the Republican convention.”
70%?
Common Core math? Cruz has to win more, but according to his article, Cruz has a lock.
Odds on favorite as the guy who will have the fewest delegates but may have made some deals to save the GOPe? Ted may think he’s fighting the good fight but he’s going to leave the Right Side of the Aisle in more disarray than Obama left Race Relations in - only Ted will do in 8 months what it took Obama 8 years to do.
Ray76,
Many thanks for the statistics!
Bears repeating:
Ray76 wrote:
Before tonight there were 867 delegates remaining.
To reach 1237 delegates Trump required 56% of the remaining delegates.
To reach 1237 delegates Cruz required 88% of the remaining delegates.
After tonight there are 825 delegates remaining.
To reach 1237 delegates Trump requires 58% of the remaining delegates.
To reach 1237 delegates Cruz requires 89% of the remaining delegates.
Cruz is nearing elimination.
Poster1
Great analogy !
Puts it in perspective:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3417852/posts?page=19#19
Pollster1 wrote:
“Last quarter of the championship game. The favorite is up by 61 to 38 points (Trump and Cruz have 61% and 38% of the delegates they need), but the challenger makes a free throw. The challenger is now the “odds on favorite to win”?
Really?”
Sten, thanks for that link!
All y’all, adding this to the stats:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3417852/posts?page=32#32
sten wrote:
“*pssst*
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hkgLa844MzTgeqcmrkeSrLnq7vJJZl2S7lMz8Qf5xq8/edit#gid=0
summing up the states where Trump is favored: NY, MD, PA, CA, and NJ
these bring in 427 delegates... taking Trump from 755 to 1182
which leaves him with 55 delegates to pull from the remaining 342.
so yea... looks like Trump will get the lock”
How many more holes in that sinking Cruz ship do they have to plug before they finally abandon it?
Wrong. Cruz is not going to be eliminated. All it means is things will be now settled at the Convention after the first ballot whether you or Trump like it or not.
I've looked at the data from RCP ... even if Cruz gets half the NY delegates (very unlikely) ... he will be mathematically eliminated.
His path to 1237 ends in two weeks.
All the analysis that predicts Trump won't get there assumes that people will still vote for someone who cannot secure 1237. Cruz's support will evaporate to Kasich levels ... 10-20% ...
We are right now at the point where the Cruz campaign's essential message is "I cannot get there, but if you vote for me, Donald won't get there either."
This part from Ray’s post puts the perspective on that MSM article.
Where in the world did the MSM get “trump needs to get 70% of the remaining delegates”?
Ray76 wrote:
“Before tonight there were 867 delegates remaining. To reach 1237 delegates Trump required 56% of the remaining delegates. To reach 1237 delegates Cruz required 88% of the remaining delegates. After tonight there are 825 delegates remaining. To reach 1237 delegates Trump requires 58% of the remaining delegates. To reach 1237 delegates Cruz requires 89% of the remaining delegates.”
David Gergen beating his drum...what a laugh!
David Gergen? LOL.
“After tonight there are 825 delegates remaining.
To reach 1237 delegates Trump requires 58% of the remaining delegates.
To reach 1237 delegates Cruz requires 89% of the remaining delegates.
Cruz is nearing elimination.”
__________________________________________
Please don’t rain on the Cruz parade with facts. He won Wisconsin and his path to the presidency is now clear for all to see.
All hail Ted Cruz!
You got it, here comes Paul Ryan to the rescue and he will be soooo much better then Lying Ted. Anyone would for that matter so I can’t wait to see who they draft in his place so we know who Trump’s other general election opponent will be.
Neither of them have any shot of coming out of a brokered convention and you’re nuts if you think otherwise. Only difference is that Trump will still be fighting on and that village in Texas can finally have their Bush-like idiot back.
They so want Ted to be the candidate.
Because he will be easily beatable.
Does it matter? Ted and his GOPe buddies are not going to get too many Trump votes in the general. They cannot win without them.
Ted and the GOPe dirty tricks have made reconciliation impossible.
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