This is D+10 — about right.
Trump needs Ds under 85% (plus 10% voting Trump) and over 85% R with +10 Is to win.
Doable.
If this replaces the previous Muhlenberg College polls from 9/12 to 9/16, that poll had it Clinton 40% Trump 32% in a 4-way. This poll has it Clinton 40% Trump 38% in a 4-way.
That means that Clinton hit a ceiling and Trump gained 6% on her when third-party candidates are included.
In my model, this moves Trump's probability in Pennsylvania from 12.2% last week to 27.8% based on this poll.
-PJ