A Ridiculously Early Look at Next Year's Senate Races

California’s recall contest has stirred the political junkie within me. Even though next year’s election is still thirteen months away, already I feel the need to offer my predictions. You’d think I would exercise more self-control.

For what they’re worth (and a year ahead of time, they’re probably not worth very much), here are my thoughts on the 2004 Senate match-ups. (NOTE: After each state is a running total in italics.)

ALABAMA -- Richard Shelby’s 1994 switch to the GOP played well in this Republican-leaning state. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two Senate races by 2-to-1 margins, and it’s easy to see why Shelby will have no problem keeping this seat. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

ALASKA -- After Frank Murkowski (R) became governor this January, he appointed his daughter Lisa to fill the remainder of his Senate term. Unfortunately, she got off to a rough start and appeared to be in even deeper trouble when former governor Tony Knowles (Alaska’s most prominent Democrat) announced he would run against her. Since then, however, Murkowski has found her footing. Moreover, she has the advantage of running in one of the country’s most Republican states. National Democratic opposition to oil drilling in ANWR isn’t doing Knowles any favors, either. Although this will be a tight race, a good showing by George Bush next November should allow Murkowski to hold on. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R -, D -)

ARIZONA -- John McCain often delights in bedeviling his fellow Republicans, so he dodged a bullet this summer when Rep. Jeff Flake forewent a primary challenge. This frees McCain to focus on the general election, which shouldn’t present him any problems. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

ARKANSAS -- One by one, top-tier potential challengers to Blanche Lincoln (D) declined to run against her, leaving her in better shape than she might have been. Her fairly liberal voting record could cause trouble, but unless there’s a Republican tsunami next fall she probably will post a modest victory. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R -, D -)

CALIFORNIA -- Despite Arnold Schwarzenegger’s impressive victory here, California still has a serious Democratic lean to it. This is good news for Barbara Boxer (D), whose hyper-liberal politics would doom her in just about any other state. Nonetheless, Arnold has shown that a Republican can win in California, provided he unites the GOP’s conservative and moderate/liberal wings. Perhaps the best person to do this would be former CA Sec. of State Bill Jones (R), who seems inclined to run. Jones could give Boxer a real scare, and he might even make this a horse race if the stars align for the GOP (the economy continues to improve, Schwarzenegger makes some headway and Bush runs well enough to make California competitive). If not, or if Jones doesn’t run, Boxer would have the upper hand. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R -, D -)

COLORADO -- Like Alabama, Colorado isn’t nearly as Democratic as it once was, and like Alabama, Colorado’s senior senator, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, was a Democrat until the mid-90s. Campbell’s new party and his moderate-to-conservative record seem a good fit for modern Colorado. He’ll be reelected comfortably. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

CONNECTICUT -- Connecticut hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate since the very liberal and very obnoxious Lowell Weicker last won in 1982. Don’t look for that to change next year, as Christopher Dodd (D) will win easily. Stays Democratic (R -, D -)

FLORIDA -- A year ago it seemed as if Bob Graham (D) had a lock on this seat. Then he decided to run for president. He soon veered left and revealed his, ahem, colorful side. Although Graham shelved his White House bid last week, the damage has been done. If he seeks reelection to the Senate he still would be the slight favorite, but he wouldn’t enjoy the prohibitive edge he once did. If (as I suspect) he retires, then former Senate candidate Bill McCollum or another Republican would have a better-than-even chance of picking up the seat. Slightly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +1, D –1)

GEORGIA -- Zell Miller (D) is retiring and Republicans are likely to win this seat. The Democrats already have gone through most of their A-list and found no one interested in making the run. Whomever the Democrats choose will have an uphill battle in this Republican-trending state. Strongly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +2, D –2)

HAWAII -- No word yet from Hawaii, but if Daniel Inouye (D) seeks and wins reelection he’ll be 86 when his next term expires. Even if he doesn’t run, Hawaii is so Democratic the GOP would have a hard time capturing this seat. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

IDAHO -- They don’t come much more Republican than Idaho, and Mike Crapo (R) will have no problems winning in 2004. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

ILLINOIS -- If the Democrats have an unambiguous bright spot next year, it’s Illinois. The state already is fairly Democratic and Gov. George Ryan (R) left office in January, plagued by scandal. Then incumbent Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R) announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, and the GOP’s only other real hope, former governor Jim Edgar, said he wasn’t interested in running, either. For Republicans, anything that could’ve gone wrong did, and Democrats seem poised to take advantage of the situation. Strongly Favored for a Democratic Pick Up (R +1, D +1)

INDIANA -- Normally a Republican-leaning state, Indiana has a soft spot for Democrats named Bayh. The current incumbent, Evan Bayh, is no exception, and his voting record is only mildly liberal. A top-notch GOP challenger still might be able to give Bayh a race, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards this time around. Stays Democratic (R +1, D –1)

IOWA -- Iowa may be one of the more Democratic states, but Republicans still are competitive here. Case in point is Senator Charles Grassley (R), who’s won his last two races by better than 2-to-1 margins. He’s a safe bet for next year too. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

KANSAS -- Kansans haven’t elected a Democratic senator since FDR was president and they’re not likely to break that string in 2004. Sam Brownback (R) will keep this seat. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

KENTUCKY -- Jim Bunning (R) had a close race when he first was elected in 1998, but Democrats have fallen on hard times in Kentucky and probably won’t put up much of a fight. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

LOUISIANA -- Keep your eye on the governor’s race next month. If Kathleen Blanco (D) wins, look for Sen. John Breaux (D) to retire, allowing Blanco to name a replacement, most likely Rep. Chris John (D), who then would be the incumbent in next year’s election. On the other hand, if Bobby Jindal (R) becomes governor, it’ll be interesting to see what Breaux does. It’s becoming clear Breaux wishes to retire, but does he want to allow Republicans a shot at winning the seat? If Breaux does seek reelection he’ll win, but an open-seat situation would be much less certain. Rep. David Vitter is the likely GOP nominee and would give John a tough fight. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +1, D –1)

MARYLAND -- Once every twenty years or so Republicans manage to win a race in Maryland. No one is quite sure how this happens. Unfortunately, Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) used up all the GOP’s good luck last year, so it’s unlikely Republicans will find anyone to beat Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D). Stays Democratic (R +1, D –1)

MISSOURI -- Christopher (“Kit”) Bond (R) always has won reelection comfortably, if not overwhelmingly. His moderate conservatism is well-suited to a swing state and should see him through next year’s contest. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

NEVADA -- This is one that slipped through the GOP’s fingers. Harry Reid (D) never has won much more than 51%, and the last time around his margin was only 400 votes. Republicans were counting on popular Rep. Jim Gibbons to challenge Reid in 2004, but Gibbons decided against the race. While Reid is far from invulnerable, he now has a clear advantage next November. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +1, D –1)

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Sen. Judd Gregg’s (R) wife famously foiled a kidnapping attempt recently and that’s probably the most stressful situation the Greggs will face this year or next. Gregg’s reelection in Republican-friendly New Hampshire should be much less trouble. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

NEW YORK -- Charles Schumer (D) is so abrasive, he may be too much, even for New York. The problem is finding a Republican who can beat him. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) is more than equal to the task, but he seems to have his eyes set on the governor’s mansion, or maybe Hillary Clinton’s job, or maybe the White House. Rep. Peter King (R) could make this an interesting race, but he hasn’t indicated definitively that he will run. For the time being, it looks as if Schumer will be in the country’s face for another six years. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +1, D –1)

NORTH CAROLINA -- John Edwards (D) would’ve been in trouble if he had sought reelection, but his decision to pursue the Democratic presidential nomination spares him rejection by North Carolina’s voters. Instead, another Democrat (probably former Clinton staffer Erskine Bowles) will face the electorate. Although there’s enough of a base to make Democrats competitive in North Carolina, right now Rep. Richard Burr (R) has something of an advantage. Slightly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +2, D –2)

NORTH DAKOTA -- In 2000 Bush beat Gore here by 28 points, yet the GOP can’t seem to dislodge either of the state’s two Democratic senators. The one Republican candidate who might’ve been able to help, former governor Edward Schafer, has declined to run in 2004. Barring a miracle, North Dakotans will return George Bush to the White House and Byron Dorgan (D) to the Senate next year. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +2, D –2)

OHIO -- George Voinovich (R) nearly derailed the president’s tax cut and his support for the Republican agenda has been lukewarm, yet he seems unlikely to draw major opposition in 2004, either in the primary or in the general. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

OKLAHOMA -- Don Nickles (R) recently announced he would not seek another term, opening a seat that would’ve been a sure thing for the GOP. As of now, the two likeliest candidates to replace Nickles are Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphreys (R) and Rep. Brad Carson (D). Although this could be a close contest, Republicans have an advantage in Oklahoma, particularly in federal elections. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +2, D –2)

OREGON -- When Republicans nominate a strong candidate, this state is competitive. Otherwise, Democrats are fairly safe here, as Ron Wyden (D) should be next year. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

PENNSYLVANIA -- This will be a hotly-contested state next spring, as conservative Rep. Pat Toomey challenges moderately liberal Sen. Arlen Specter for the Republican nomination. The Democratic nominee probably will be liberal Philadelphia-area Rep. Joseph Hoeffel. The GOP has an advantage in this race, but it could be squandered if the Toomey-Specter contest becomes unusually acrimonious. However, for Democrats to take full advantage of the situation, they would need not only a bitter Republican primary, but also a weak national performance by George Bush. Moreover, if Sam Katz (R) wins the Philadelphia mayor’s race next month, Democrats will be harder-pressed to manipulate the big-city vote to their benefit. This may seem a minor factor, but Democrats have limited appeal in Pennsylvania outside the city of Philadelphia and they need to gin up as many big-city votes they can. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +2, D –2)

SOUTH CAROLINA -- Along with Georgia, this state represents Republicans’ best chance for a gain next year. Sen. Ernest (“Fritz”) Hollings’ (D) victory margins have diminished in recent elections, as he’s moved further and further to the left. In fact, there’s a very good chance he would have been defeated had he sought reelection in 2004. However, now that the seat’s open, Rep. Jim DeMint is nearly certain to win this race for the GOP. Strongly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +3, D –3)

SOUTH DAKOTA -- Republicans would love to defeat Tom Daschle (D, as if it weren’t obvious) and their top-tier candidate, former Rep. John Thune (R), reportedly is considering the race, but the odds still are daunting. South Dakotans have a strong preference for Republicans, but an even stronger preference for the pork Daschle brings home. If Thune gets in the race he could make this a real contest, but even then Daschle still has to be considered the frontrunner. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

UTAH -- Robert Bennett (R) has no worries next year in this GOP stronghold. Stays Republican (R +3, D –3)

VERMONT -- Vermont has given the nation Howard Dean and Jim Jeffords, and elects a socialist to represent it in the House. Is it any wonder Patrick Leahy (D) will have no problem winning reelection? Stays Democratic (R +3, D –3)

WASHINGTON -- Patty Murray (D) compared Osama bin Laden to the Founding Fathers, but criticism bounced right off her because she’s Queen of the Soccer Moms. Seattle-area Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R) might’ve cut into Murray’s suburban support, but Dunn decided against running. Instead, Spokane Rep. George Nethercutt probably will be the Republican standard-bearer. While Nethercutt also is a strong candidate, Murray has the advantage in Democrat-heavy Washington. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

WISCONSIN -- Russ Feingold (D) won his last election by only three points and he could face another close contest this year. So far, State Rep. Robert Welch (R) is the only candidate who’s announced, but others may join the race later on. Feingold is a liberal in a state that isn’t quite as Democratic as it used to be, so his reelection is far from automatic. However, he is the incumbent and his work on campaign-finance reform will allow him to claim the title of “reformer,” a definite plus in “squeaky clean” Wisconsin. The outcome of this race probably will be tied to George Bush’s performance here next year. If the president carries Wisconsin, particularly if he carries it by more than a couple points, Feingold could be in trouble. Still, all else being equal, Feingold has a modest advantage. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

So, if I had to guess at this early point (and it still is very early), I’d say Republicans probably will pick up a net three Senate seats next year, giving them a 54-46 edge. By the way, I’m counting Jim Jeffords a Democrat, despite his ridiculous claim to be some sort of “independent.”

Of course, the 2004 presidential election will influence these contests and, in some cases, it’ll play a decisive role. When I considered each race, I assumed President Bush would win nationally by a comfortable, but not overwhelming, margin (something in the upper single digits). If next year is a nail-biter like 2000, then my predictions probably are too optimistic. If, on the other hand, Bush opens up a big lead, the GOP probably will pick up a few more seats than I anticipated.

You did a pretty good job. I do think Boxer is a little more vulnerable than you. The only reason she has won in the past was because her opponents were totally unacceptable to Democrats and a lot of Independents. Jones or a Chris Cox just might be the formula needed. Murray, Reid and Daschle are all going to have to work very hard and I still thin Arkansas (Lincoln) and Louisiana are possible pick ups.

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RINO Bob Welch in Wisconsin is considering running against Feingold.

Unfortunately even a conservative has his/her work cut out for them in WI. Feingold is a saavy politician who likes to sell himself as an independent maverick. But he's a liberal all right, and he'll receive the obligatory votes in Madistan and Milwaukeestan and win again.

I remember the 1992 race, when Feingold ran a humorous campaign because Jim Moody and that other guy were slinging mud.

Mark Neumann in 1998 should have stayed in Congress instead of being too greedy and running for the Senate. Yeah, those Madison and Milwaukee votes are killers.

Thanks. As you read, I based my model on a modest Bush victory. To be honest, I'm rather confident that he can rack up a double-digit margin next year. If this is the case, then a few of the "Slightly Favored to Remain Democratic" races might flip to the GOP.

For now, I'm being a bit cautious, as it's still so early.

As for Boxer, I agree with you -- she definitely is vulnerable. However, any GOP candidate in CA has a steep hill to climb. Barring any external stimuli, the Democrat has a natural advantage.

Of course, an improving economy and a strong performance by Bush are two "stimuli" than could boost Republicans' chances.

Nethercutt has a pretty good chance in Washington State. Murray's numbers are pretty bad - especially the re-elect numbers. If Nethercutt spends his money right and the East side gets wildly energized (which could happen because Nethercutt represents the first time in over 80 years for an East side Senator), Murray may find herself out of a job next November. No one expected Nethercutt to defeat Tom Foley so he has some experience as a dragon slayer. One of Nethercutt's weaknesses is his fundraising ability. If W comes to Washington a couple of times to help raise money for George, he'll do okay in that department. I'd say it's a toss up right now.

You're right -- Milwaukee and Madison are two big stumbling blocks, but they aren't insurmountable. After all, Bush very nearly carried the state in 2000.

Still, as in CA, I submit that any Republican starts off a bit behind.

Thanks. Wouldn't be a bad idea for you to update this about every 2 months through Sep. 04 then about every 2 weeks until Nov. Looks like you do your homework.

Although your overall count looks quite reasonable, as a Californian, I'm very skeptical that Bill Jones would be a very good candidate against Boxer. The core of the party detests him since he switched his support from Bush to McCain in 2000. Boxer is so extreme that she OUGHT to be beatable, but the California GOP has such a weak bench that she may well win again (as you say).

I think McClintock should run against Boxer. He has name recognition; he is well respected; and he offers Californians a clear choice. He is quite electable.

That's interesting. The factors you mention definitely are important ones, and I think Bush's overall performance also is crucial. If the president opens up a big lead on Dean, Kerry or whomever else the Democrats nominate, the he'll be able to carry some Republicans with him across the finish line.

Certainly, adequate fundraising will help Nethercutt, but Bush carrying Washington (or coming close) is as good as a $10 million donation.

Interesting thoughts, too, on the East-West Washington dynamic. That's something I hadn't considered. Thanks!

I would vote for McClintock in a minute, and think very highly of him, but he can't raise money. Moreover, much of the great press he got during the recall was from the leftist press which was trying to split the Republican vote. It will not be friendly if he runs against Boxer.

Thank you. I appreciate the vote of confidence!

Yours is a pretty good idea, actually. Hmmmm...something to consider...

I like McClintock too, but I fear Boxer would club him over the head with the abortion issue. In most states, being pro-life is a wash or a net positive, but in California...well, it's different.

I'm not saying it's impossible for a pro-lifer to carry California, but it is a handicap. If you're seeking to unseat an incumbent senator, you need as few handicaps as possible.

I spent the weekend in Orange County and heard a lot of talk about Kelsey Grammer running for office, potentially against Ms. Boxer. He was viewed as a fiscal conservative - social progressive Republican, like Arnold.

He certainly has strong recognition albeit he would not be the darling of the McClintock supporters.

Why does the Republican party have such a hard time getting good people to run in states that have vulnerable Democrats? I don't get it. With good people running we could pick up megga seats.

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