[Magnum Fan]

We seem to have reached many of the same conclusions.

All in all, I think the Democratic presidential nominee is the wild card in many of these races. If they go with Clark or Gephardt (whom the media will spin as "moderates"), then the Dems might do better than we expect.

If, on the other hand, Dean or Kerry gets the nod, the GOP very likely will pick up five or six seats, not the three I predicted.

By the way, Dan, I'm curious -- do you think Graham will seek reelection, or retire? My gut tells me he'll retire, though I'm going on little more than instinct and, well, hope.

[Dan from Michigan]

I think he'll retire. I disagree about Dean. I think he's the strongest one they got and he'll be 'moving to the center' ('Fiscal responsibility', 'outsider') once he wraps up the base.