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A Ridiculously Early Look at Next Year's Senate Races
Monday, October 13 | Magnum Fan

Posted on 10/13/2003 1:20:24 PM PDT by Magnum Fan

California’s recall contest has stirred the political junkie within me. Even though next year’s election is still thirteen months away, already I feel the need to offer my predictions. You’d think I would exercise more self-control.

Then again, maybe not.

For what they’re worth (and a year ahead of time, they’re probably not worth very much), here are my thoughts on the 2004 Senate match-ups. (NOTE: After each state is a running total in italics.)

ALABAMA -- Richard Shelby’s 1994 switch to the GOP played well in this Republican-leaning state. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two Senate races by 2-to-1 margins, and it’s easy to see why Shelby will have no problem keeping this seat. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

ALASKA -- After Frank Murkowski (R) became governor this January, he appointed his daughter Lisa to fill the remainder of his Senate term. Unfortunately, she got off to a rough start and appeared to be in even deeper trouble when former governor Tony Knowles (Alaska’s most prominent Democrat) announced he would run against her. Since then, however, Murkowski has found her footing. Moreover, she has the advantage of running in one of the country’s most Republican states. National Democratic opposition to oil drilling in ANWR isn’t doing Knowles any favors, either. Although this will be a tight race, a good showing by George Bush next November should allow Murkowski to hold on. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R -, D -)

ARIZONA -- John McCain often delights in bedeviling his fellow Republicans, so he dodged a bullet this summer when Rep. Jeff Flake forewent a primary challenge. This frees McCain to focus on the general election, which shouldn’t present him any problems. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

ARKANSAS -- One by one, top-tier potential challengers to Blanche Lincoln (D) declined to run against her, leaving her in better shape than she might have been. Her fairly liberal voting record could cause trouble, but unless there’s a Republican tsunami next fall she probably will post a modest victory. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R -, D -)

CALIFORNIA -- Despite Arnold Schwarzenegger’s impressive victory here, California still has a serious Democratic lean to it. This is good news for Barbara Boxer (D), whose hyper-liberal politics would doom her in just about any other state. Nonetheless, Arnold has shown that a Republican can win in California, provided he unites the GOP’s conservative and moderate/liberal wings. Perhaps the best person to do this would be former CA Sec. of State Bill Jones (R), who seems inclined to run. Jones could give Boxer a real scare, and he might even make this a horse race if the stars align for the GOP (the economy continues to improve, Schwarzenegger makes some headway and Bush runs well enough to make California competitive). If not, or if Jones doesn’t run, Boxer would have the upper hand. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R -, D -)

COLORADO -- Like Alabama, Colorado isn’t nearly as Democratic as it once was, and like Alabama, Colorado’s senior senator, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, was a Democrat until the mid-90s. Campbell’s new party and his moderate-to-conservative record seem a good fit for modern Colorado. He’ll be reelected comfortably. Stays Republican (R -, D -)

CONNECTICUT -- Connecticut hasn’t sent a Republican to the Senate since the very liberal and very obnoxious Lowell Weicker last won in 1982. Don’t look for that to change next year, as Christopher Dodd (D) will win easily. Stays Democratic (R -, D -)

FLORIDA -- A year ago it seemed as if Bob Graham (D) had a lock on this seat. Then he decided to run for president. He soon veered left and revealed his, ahem, colorful side. Although Graham shelved his White House bid last week, the damage has been done. If he seeks reelection to the Senate he still would be the slight favorite, but he wouldn’t enjoy the prohibitive edge he once did. If (as I suspect) he retires, then former Senate candidate Bill McCollum or another Republican would have a better-than-even chance of picking up the seat. Slightly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +1, D –1)

GEORGIA -- Zell Miller (D) is retiring and Republicans are likely to win this seat. The Democrats already have gone through most of their A-list and found no one interested in making the run. Whomever the Democrats choose will have an uphill battle in this Republican-trending state. Strongly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +2, D –2)

HAWAII -- No word yet from Hawaii, but if Daniel Inouye (D) seeks and wins reelection he’ll be 86 when his next term expires. Even if he doesn’t run, Hawaii is so Democratic the GOP would have a hard time capturing this seat. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

IDAHO -- They don’t come much more Republican than Idaho, and Mike Crapo (R) will have no problems winning in 2004. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

ILLINOIS -- If the Democrats have an unambiguous bright spot next year, it’s Illinois. The state already is fairly Democratic and Gov. George Ryan (R) left office in January, plagued by scandal. Then incumbent Senator Peter Fitzgerald (R) announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, and the GOP’s only other real hope, former governor Jim Edgar, said he wasn’t interested in running, either. For Republicans, anything that could’ve gone wrong did, and Democrats seem poised to take advantage of the situation. Strongly Favored for a Democratic Pick Up (R +1, D +1)

INDIANA -- Normally a Republican-leaning state, Indiana has a soft spot for Democrats named Bayh. The current incumbent, Evan Bayh, is no exception, and his voting record is only mildly liberal. A top-notch GOP challenger still might be able to give Bayh a race, but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards this time around. Stays Democratic (R +1, D –1)

IOWA -- Iowa may be one of the more Democratic states, but Republicans still are competitive here. Case in point is Senator Charles Grassley (R), who’s won his last two races by better than 2-to-1 margins. He’s a safe bet for next year too. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

KANSAS -- Kansans haven’t elected a Democratic senator since FDR was president and they’re not likely to break that string in 2004. Sam Brownback (R) will keep this seat. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

KENTUCKY -- Jim Bunning (R) had a close race when he first was elected in 1998, but Democrats have fallen on hard times in Kentucky and probably won’t put up much of a fight. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

LOUISIANA -- Keep your eye on the governor’s race next month. If Kathleen Blanco (D) wins, look for Sen. John Breaux (D) to retire, allowing Blanco to name a replacement, most likely Rep. Chris John (D), who then would be the incumbent in next year’s election. On the other hand, if Bobby Jindal (R) becomes governor, it’ll be interesting to see what Breaux does. It’s becoming clear Breaux wishes to retire, but does he want to allow Republicans a shot at winning the seat? If Breaux does seek reelection he’ll win, but an open-seat situation would be much less certain. Rep. David Vitter is the likely GOP nominee and would give John a tough fight. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +1, D –1)

MARYLAND -- Once every twenty years or so Republicans manage to win a race in Maryland. No one is quite sure how this happens. Unfortunately, Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) used up all the GOP’s good luck last year, so it’s unlikely Republicans will find anyone to beat Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D). Stays Democratic (R +1, D –1)

MISSOURI -- Christopher (“Kit”) Bond (R) always has won reelection comfortably, if not overwhelmingly. His moderate conservatism is well-suited to a swing state and should see him through next year’s contest. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

NEVADA -- This is one that slipped through the GOP’s fingers. Harry Reid (D) never has won much more than 51%, and the last time around his margin was only 400 votes. Republicans were counting on popular Rep. Jim Gibbons to challenge Reid in 2004, but Gibbons decided against the race. While Reid is far from invulnerable, he now has a clear advantage next November. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +1, D –1)

NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Sen. Judd Gregg’s (R) wife famously foiled a kidnapping attempt recently and that’s probably the most stressful situation the Greggs will face this year or next. Gregg’s reelection in Republican-friendly New Hampshire should be much less trouble. Stays Republican (R +1, D –1)

NEW YORK -- Charles Schumer (D) is so abrasive, he may be too much, even for New York. The problem is finding a Republican who can beat him. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) is more than equal to the task, but he seems to have his eyes set on the governor’s mansion, or maybe Hillary Clinton’s job, or maybe the White House. Rep. Peter King (R) could make this an interesting race, but he hasn’t indicated definitively that he will run. For the time being, it looks as if Schumer will be in the country’s face for another six years. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +1, D –1)

NORTH CAROLINA -- John Edwards (D) would’ve been in trouble if he had sought reelection, but his decision to pursue the Democratic presidential nomination spares him rejection by North Carolina’s voters. Instead, another Democrat (probably former Clinton staffer Erskine Bowles) will face the electorate. Although there’s enough of a base to make Democrats competitive in North Carolina, right now Rep. Richard Burr (R) has something of an advantage. Slightly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +2, D –2)

NORTH DAKOTA -- In 2000 Bush beat Gore here by 28 points, yet the GOP can’t seem to dislodge either of the state’s two Democratic senators. The one Republican candidate who might’ve been able to help, former governor Edward Schafer, has declined to run in 2004. Barring a miracle, North Dakotans will return George Bush to the White House and Byron Dorgan (D) to the Senate next year. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +2, D –2)

OHIO -- George Voinovich (R) nearly derailed the president’s tax cut and his support for the Republican agenda has been lukewarm, yet he seems unlikely to draw major opposition in 2004, either in the primary or in the general. Stays Republican (R +2, D –2)

OKLAHOMA -- Don Nickles (R) recently announced he would not seek another term, opening a seat that would’ve been a sure thing for the GOP. As of now, the two likeliest candidates to replace Nickles are Oklahoma City mayor Kirk Humphreys (R) and Rep. Brad Carson (D). Although this could be a close contest, Republicans have an advantage in Oklahoma, particularly in federal elections. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +2, D –2)

OREGON -- When Republicans nominate a strong candidate, this state is competitive. Otherwise, Democrats are fairly safe here, as Ron Wyden (D) should be next year. Stays Democratic (R +2, D –2)

PENNSYLVANIA -- This will be a hotly-contested state next spring, as conservative Rep. Pat Toomey challenges moderately liberal Sen. Arlen Specter for the Republican nomination. The Democratic nominee probably will be liberal Philadelphia-area Rep. Joseph Hoeffel. The GOP has an advantage in this race, but it could be squandered if the Toomey-Specter contest becomes unusually acrimonious. However, for Democrats to take full advantage of the situation, they would need not only a bitter Republican primary, but also a weak national performance by George Bush. Moreover, if Sam Katz (R) wins the Philadelphia mayor’s race next month, Democrats will be harder-pressed to manipulate the big-city vote to their benefit. This may seem a minor factor, but Democrats have limited appeal in Pennsylvania outside the city of Philadelphia and they need to gin up as many big-city votes they can. Slightly Favored to Stay Republican (R +2, D –2)

SOUTH CAROLINA -- Along with Georgia, this state represents Republicans’ best chance for a gain next year. Sen. Ernest (“Fritz”) Hollings’ (D) victory margins have diminished in recent elections, as he’s moved further and further to the left. In fact, there’s a very good chance he would have been defeated had he sought reelection in 2004. However, now that the seat’s open, Rep. Jim DeMint is nearly certain to win this race for the GOP. Strongly Favored for a Republican Pick Up (R +3, D –3)

SOUTH DAKOTA -- Republicans would love to defeat Tom Daschle (D, as if it weren’t obvious) and their top-tier candidate, former Rep. John Thune (R), reportedly is considering the race, but the odds still are daunting. South Dakotans have a strong preference for Republicans, but an even stronger preference for the pork Daschle brings home. If Thune gets in the race he could make this a real contest, but even then Daschle still has to be considered the frontrunner. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

UTAH -- Robert Bennett (R) has no worries next year in this GOP stronghold. Stays Republican (R +3, D –3)

VERMONT -- Vermont has given the nation Howard Dean and Jim Jeffords, and elects a socialist to represent it in the House. Is it any wonder Patrick Leahy (D) will have no problem winning reelection? Stays Democratic (R +3, D –3)

WASHINGTON -- Patty Murray (D) compared Osama bin Laden to the Founding Fathers, but criticism bounced right off her because she’s Queen of the Soccer Moms. Seattle-area Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R) might’ve cut into Murray’s suburban support, but Dunn decided against running. Instead, Spokane Rep. George Nethercutt probably will be the Republican standard-bearer. While Nethercutt also is a strong candidate, Murray has the advantage in Democrat-heavy Washington. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

WISCONSIN -- Russ Feingold (D) won his last election by only three points and he could face another close contest this year. So far, State Rep. Robert Welch (R) is the only candidate who’s announced, but others may join the race later on. Feingold is a liberal in a state that isn’t quite as Democratic as it used to be, so his reelection is far from automatic. However, he is the incumbent and his work on campaign-finance reform will allow him to claim the title of “reformer,” a definite plus in “squeaky clean” Wisconsin. The outcome of this race probably will be tied to George Bush’s performance here next year. If the president carries Wisconsin, particularly if he carries it by more than a couple points, Feingold could be in trouble. Still, all else being equal, Feingold has a modest advantage. Slightly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)

So, if I had to guess at this early point (and it still is very early), I’d say Republicans probably will pick up a net three Senate seats next year, giving them a 54-46 edge. By the way, I’m counting Jim Jeffords a Democrat, despite his ridiculous claim to be some sort of “independent.”

Of course, the 2004 presidential election will influence these contests and, in some cases, it’ll play a decisive role. When I considered each race, I assumed President Bush would win nationally by a comfortable, but not overwhelming, margin (something in the upper single digits). If next year is a nail-biter like 2000, then my predictions probably are too optimistic. If, on the other hand, Bush opens up a big lead, the GOP probably will pick up a few more seats than I anticipated.

Anyway, so much for my thoughts. What do you think?


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; elections; electionsenate; politics; predictions; senate
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To: Coop; GraniteStateConservative; KQQL
The handicapping has begun........
21 posted on 10/13/2003 2:28:57 PM PDT by deport (The Many, The Proud, The Winners)
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To: JonH
I've heard this before, too. Of course, you actually were in California, so you probably have information a bit more dependable than the whispers and rumors that filter across to the East Coast, where I am.

The one "problem" I have with Grammer is that there may be a perception among the GOP faithful that he hasn't "paid his dues." That is, he hasn't put time in the trenches building the party the way Jones, Cox or McClintock have.

22 posted on 10/13/2003 2:34:59 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
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To: rushmom
A lot of good people don't want to live in DC (which, in John Kennedy's terms has "All the charm of a Northern city, and all the efficiency of a Southern town."). Life in the private sector is also much more pleasant for folks who don't have that certain personality disorder required to run for public office.
23 posted on 10/13/2003 2:37:15 PM PDT by labard1
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To: rushmom
Frustrating, huh?

In my opinion, Nevada, North Dakota and Arkansas were ours for the taking, if only Gibbons, Schafer and Huckabee had run. These states still may be in play, but it won't be easy. Of course, a Bush tsunami would help...

Go Howard Dean!!!

24 posted on 10/13/2003 2:39:09 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
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To: Magnum Fan
My guess is the Senate seat in Louisiana will stay democrat regardless of who wins the upcoming Governors race. The 04 race will be a Presidential election thus having a lot of media attention along with all Congressional races plus the Senate race however it unfolds... The bottom line is that is enough attention to bring the black vote out and when they do turn out in LA it's had for a Republican to win. They can have a decisive influence on the elections, jmo......
25 posted on 10/13/2003 2:40:19 PM PDT by deport (The Many, The Proud, The Winners)
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To: labard1
I get your point. But if your vocation is politics and you're conservative, don't you want to save the country from liberals? Maybe I'm naive.
26 posted on 10/13/2003 2:40:38 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: rushmom
We both grew up watching too many Westerns. Most folks are happy to let others pay the heaviest transaction costs in fighting the enemy. It takes a rare personality disorder to want to be a hero and be willing to sacrifice one's personal life to save the country.
27 posted on 10/13/2003 2:49:56 PM PDT by labard1
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To: deport
Alas, I tend to agree.

However, I think a Jindal victory next month still keeps the door open for the GOP. For one thing, it prevents Breaux from pulling an early retirement trick. This would keep John from running as an incumbent.

Also, with a Republican administration in Baton Rouge, it's just a bit more difficult for Democratic vote-hustlers to do their thing. Oh, they'll still be out in force, but at least the governor's office won't abet their efforts.

Finally, if Bush runs well next fall, Democratic turnout might be depressed.

Of course, if Jindal loses, then I share your pessimism.

28 posted on 10/13/2003 2:52:32 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
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To: Magnum Fan
I agree with most.

Alaska - Will be closer than normal, but Alaska doesn't like federal dems. - R lean

Arkansas - It looks like Lincoln will be getting a couple of breaks. D - Lean

California - Boxer's a nut, but will likely survive. It'll take a united party at best to have a shot. Good luck.... D lean

Florida - Tossup for now. This largely depends on who runs. McCollum record on personal freedoms is atrocious as far as I'm concerned(He wrote a 'patriot act' back during the Klinton years), plus he's a weak campaigner and lost once. Dave Weldon is who I'd like to see. Conservative, central Florida, hasn't lost yet statewide. If the dems run a New Yorker like Deutsch or Wexler, or run Impeached Alcee Hastings, it helps. If they run a Cuban Alex Peneles(sp), a "Southerner", or someone from Central Fla, this will be tougher.

Georgia - Again it depends on who runs. A pro-lifer, pro-2a'er will run better here. If the dems run a McKinney type...great. :D Will Cleland try a comeback? Slight R lean.

Illinois - Dem lean. George Ryan wrecked the party worse than Geoff Fieger wrecked the dems in Michigan. D lean.

Kentucky - With Patton in a bad way, and Baesler taken out not only of the Senate, but Congress as well, the only one I can see putting up a good fight is Lucas. R lean.

Louisiana - If Breaux stays in, Solid D. If open, Tossup.

Nevada - There's always one major upset each year. This could be an upset special. Reid won by the skin of his teeth last time. I'll give this a tossup.

New York - They love Scumer there. D lean.

NC - Edwards is toast no matter what now. He didn't take care of the homefront. Bowles lost once already, and Burr may actually be stronger than Dole since he's lived longer in NC. Who else are the dems considering? R lean.

Ohio - Someone primary Voinovich? PLEASE!

Oklahoma - Tough since it's open, but winnable. R lean.

Penn - Very interesting and a tossup. Specter's age hurts, as does his fairly lib views. Joe Hoeffel will be strong in Phily(as would be Specter). Toomey is conservative, but won in Leigh Valley which is not an easy thing to do. He'd do worse than Specter in Philly, but he'd IMO do better over in the Pitt or Scranton areas. Anyone can win this IMO. I'd even take Sphincter over Hoeffel who is nothing more than Chucky Scumer.

Washington State - One word. Seattle. D lean.

Wisconsin - Feingold is enough of a maverick to likely survive IMO. D lean, but it IS winnable..

29 posted on 10/13/2003 2:53:41 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("I don't want to Raise Taxes" "I think everything must be looked at" - Jennifer Granholm. (D))
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To: Wphile
What scares me about Nethercutt is the term limits thing. If he stepped down two years ago and ran now, I'd call it a tossup, but this could hurt him bad.

Then again, Murray isn't the strongest dem in the world with her Bin Laden comment.

30 posted on 10/13/2003 2:55:30 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("I don't want to Raise Taxes" "I think everything must be looked at" - Jennifer Granholm. (D))
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To: Dan from Michigan
We seem to have reached many of the same conclusions.

All in all, I think the Democratic presidential nominee is the wild card in many of these races. If they go with Clark or Gephardt (whom the media will spin as "moderates"), then the Dems might do better than we expect.

If, on the other hand, Dean or Kerry gets the nod, the GOP very likely will pick up five or six seats, not the three I predicted.

By the way, Dan, I'm curious -- do you think Graham will seek reelection, or retire? My gut tells me he'll retire, though I'm going on little more than instinct and, well, hope.

31 posted on 10/13/2003 3:11:27 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
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To: Magnum Fan
Not pessimism as I grew up there and watched this stuff play out too many times..... Granted I've been gone for many years but still have most of my family there.

I'd love for Jindal to win and hopefully he will..... He now has a better chance as many of the other races were decided in the primary thus less candidates to pull out the vote. I was impressed that he did outdraw Blanco in Lafayette Parish, her home but not by a huge amount....
32 posted on 10/13/2003 3:12:50 PM PDT by deport (The Many, The Proud, The Winners)
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To: Magnum Fan
I think he'll retire. I disagree about Dean. I think he's the strongest one they got and he'll be 'moving to the center' ('Fiscal responsibility', 'outsider') once he wraps up the base.
33 posted on 10/13/2003 3:20:47 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("I don't want to Raise Taxes" "I think everything must be looked at" - Jennifer Granholm. (D))
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To: Magnum Fan
ALABAMA: I'm assuming Siegelman has decided not to run for the Democrats? Not that he would have beaten Shelby, but he could have made it a tougher race than the GOP would have wanted.

COLORADO: I think Udall could potentially make this a competitive race. I'm also still hearing rumblings that Campbell hasn't yet made up his mind (for sure) whether he's going to run for reelection or retire.

FLORIDA: If Graham retires, I'd rate this a pure toss-up, rather than a GOP lean. If Alex Panelas (of Cuban descent) runs and wins the Dem nomination, I'd probably give it a Dem lean.
34 posted on 10/13/2003 3:26:03 PM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: Dan from Michigan
Dave Weldon is who I'd like to see. Conservative, central Florida, hasn't lost yet statewide.

Gonna hafta switch that to Webster or Byrd. Weldon just bowed out.

35 posted on 10/13/2003 3:27:58 PM PDT by JohnnyZ (RED SOX WIN! We had 'em all the way)
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To: JohnnyZ
Didn't know that.

I know one of those two are conservative, if not both.

ARBM - Any Republican but McCollum.

36 posted on 10/13/2003 3:29:20 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan ("I don't want to Raise Taxes" "I think everything must be looked at" - Jennifer Granholm. (D))
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To: deport
Ah, I see. Thanks for the insight.

By the way, any chance of giving Orleans parish back to the French? It would solve so many problems...

37 posted on 10/13/2003 3:32:42 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
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To: Magnum Fan
I'm from Oklahoma and I think Kirk Humphreys has an excellent chance at winning the seat. He's well known (obviously) in the most populous county in the state. Carson gets a lot of votes from rural democrat/farmer areas in his district. He's running in an overall more conservative area where the small dem population of his district won't be near the asset that it is normally. Also, Humphreys is a good moral conservative, he stood up against, and even stopped the gay pride flag from being flown on city streets during the holidays when a lot of different flags are displayed. He's definitely got my vote for not being a PC coward.
38 posted on 10/13/2003 3:38:35 PM PDT by Brett66
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To: Dan from Michigan
No doubt, Dean will grasp for the center once (if) he's nominated, but he just has too rich a track record to ignore. Believe me, he already has generated enough material for 1,001 attack ads. ...and it's only October. Plus, I don't think a New England pol will be terribly well-received in flyover country, no matter how artfully he reinvents himself.
39 posted on 10/13/2003 3:39:16 PM PDT by Magnum Fan
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To: Magnum Fan; 007Dawg; 11B3; 123easy; 1911A1; 7mmMag@LeftCoast; A44MAGNUT; Acrobat; ...
Washington State Ping List

We live here guys and gals - what do YOU think?

WASHINGTON -- Patty Murray (D) compared Osama bin Laden to the Founding Fathers, but criticism bounced right off her because she’s Queen of the Soccer Moms. Seattle-area Rep. Jennifer Dunn (R) might’ve cut into Murray’s suburban support, but Dunn decided against running. Instead, Spokane Rep. George Nethercutt probably will be the Republican standard-bearer. While Nethercutt also is a strong candidate, Murray has the advantage in Democrat-heavy Washington. Strongly Favored to Stay Democratic (R +3, D –3)


40 posted on 10/13/2003 3:39:36 PM PDT by CyberCowboy777 (Am I Intelligent? Have you ever heard of Plato? Aristotle? Socrates? - - Morons.)
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