John Leo: More immigration folly

US News & World Report ^ | Jaunary 19, 2004 | John Leo

[sarcasm]

Politicians from both parties think President Bush's immigration plan is unusually deft, mostly because nearly every constituency seems to get something. Big business is assured an unending supply of cheap labor. Unions get the bonanza of millions more workers to organize. Bush's credentials as a "compassionate conservative" are more plausible than ever, and Republican plans to put forward more Latino candidates for political office will now look much less cynical. Republicans are seen as reaching out, not just to Latinos but to moderate white voters Bush will need in the fall. These are people whose voting patterns reflect a feelings-based liberalism and a conviction that Republicans are almost always too harsh and negative. Conservatives get assurance, however vague, that some sort of checks against illegal immigration will take hold and that Bush's amnestylike guest-worker plan is not really another amnesty.

Major newspapers quickly stressed that the only loose end is that Bush now has to "placate" his conservative base. The implication is that those opposed to massive illegal immigration are a small and backward minority. This is not the case. Polls show lopsided majorities of Americans want immigration reform and want illegal immigration controlled. A 2002 Zogby poll showed that 68 percent of Americans are so anxious about illegal immigration that they want to deploy troops along the border. But on hot-button social issues, Bush has a history of ignoring majorities and abandoning his base, and of backing the position of small but powerful and largely Democratic elites.

Obviously, the White House thinks there is more hay to be made by adopting the elite position that illegals must be "normalized" and treated like legal immigrants who played by the rules and waited their turn. Writing in the Washington Times, Stephen Dinan points out that 60 percent of Americans believe current immigration levels are a "critical threat to the vital interests of the United States," while only 14 percent of government officials, business leaders, and journalists think so.

The elite consensus makes it unlikely that the negative effects of guest-worker normalization will get much press attention. This is particularly so because the White House has left so much of Bush's plan vague. The president gets credit for reaching out to protect a vulnerable group now, but the details and costs will appear much later.

We can start to estimate costs now. Despite the White House's careful aversion to the "A" word, granting legal status to millions of illegal immigrants is a form of amnesty. It will further corrode faith in government by granting special concessions to those who broke the law to get here. And it will send the same message as previous amnesties: If you can make it over the border, you will eventually be granted legal recognition.

Pay cuts. Another byproduct will be lower wages for unskilled workers, both immigrants and natives. American-born blacks will pay a high price for the lowering of wages due to the regularization of illegal immigrants. So will many immigrants. Harvard's George Borjas, himself an immigrant, reports that in 1970, foreign-born workers earned as much as American-born workers, but by 1998 male immigrants typically earned only 77 percent of what natives earned, making the gap between immigrants and native stock three times as large as it was in 1910. What will be the gap after the Bush immigration package sails through?

Writing when Bush first proposed his Mexican initiative in 2001, sociologist Christopher Jencks said the highest price might be paid by children of the new Latino immigrants, who will very likely earn little more than their parents, perhaps become disillusioned with their new homeland, and harden into a sizable underclass. He raises the specter of a possible Latin-American-style gap in the United States between the rich and the poor.

At some point, the influx of unskilled labor has to be limited to protect fair wages and decent working conditions for all. In the elite view, it is uncompassionate and maybe racist to talk about limiting immigration. But this is a huge, continuous immigration with no end in sight. In 2001, the Mexican Ministry of the Interior reported that even with falling birthrates and increased economic development, mass immigration from Mexico to the United States will continue for at least 30 years. The ministry's estimate, nearly 400,000 immigrants per year, is likely much too low and takes no account of a guest-worker program.

Government has made a series of awful decisions on immigration and apparently is ready to do it once again, this time with short-term, election-year gains in mind. Letting this plan breeze through Congress would be a drastic mistake.

[dagnabbit]

all jobs are up for grabs

The minimum wage will become the national wage,

- because if you won't do your job for minimum wage, it becomes another "Job Americans won't do" and gets filled by someone from Bangladesh.

It appears Bush decided that global wages needed equalizing and that the process should start in the USA.

[CasearianDaoist]

It already is that way. Just lookat NYC or LA.

[waterstraat]

Well, we dont have jimmy hoffa and walter ruether anymore, and in spite of all there illegalities and frailities, they did really help the average working man a lot. They were loved and extremely popular because they helped the average guy so much(and I dont remember either one being anti-gun like the current leaders). yeah, the current "leaders" have no more concern for the working man than the average CEO.

[waterstraat]

I bet the President is real happy that he made that speech.

He was born into the bush family.

Do you really think he knows how average people think and feel and worry and try to make ends meet?

[winker]

Heil! Foxmeister; bow and scrape all you Braceros, I am your fearless leader!

[dix]

John Leo gets my attention anytime.

[singsong]

Republicans are seen as reaching out, not just to Latinos but to moderate white voters Bush will need in the fall.

Bush is not reaching out to anybody. He saw what happened in California, didn't he? But he is doing more than Gray Davis could ever dream of. Bush is playing by the common, two-party script. If Dean wins there will be NO regime change. He will just continue down the same script. It doesn't matter what voters think or want. Californians will have to swallow the pill either way. If not from Davis - from Bush. Bread and two-party circuses.

[FreedomSurge]

Karl Marx was right. It is all about class warfare. The patricians in our party have much closer bonds to the patricians in the other party than they do to me.

Evidence of this is the award GWB gave to Teddy Kennedy. The picture of them getting on together made me sick.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

Major newspapers quickly stressed that the only loose end is that Bush now has to "placate" his conservative base. The implication is that those opposed to massive illegal immigration are a small and backward minority. This is not the case. Polls show lopsided majorities of Americans want immigration reform and want illegal immigration controlled. A 2002 Zogby poll showed that 68 percent of Americans are so anxious about illegal immigration that they want to deploy troops along the border. But on hot-button social issues, Bush has a history of ignoring majorities and abandoning his base, and of backing the position of small but powerful and largely Democratic elites.

Shut the Door in 2004 Vote Tancredo.

Aren't you tired of having your vote taken for granted? I certainly am.

I have a friend whose Rep is Roy Blunt. He phoned the office in protest of Bush's Folly, and was told that they "didn't need his vote."

This is an arrogance that is permeating the Republican Party. Well we do have elsewhere to go, and the more you vote alternative, the more you'll hold their feet to the fire of Conservative ideals.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

Wages are way down for Citizen workers too! Wages in Vegas are now half what they were 5 years ago. And that is directly attributable to the latest influx of 300,000 illegal aliens.

[henderson field]

Quite sadly, the difference between the Republicans and the Democrats is the difference between Pepsi-Cola and Coca-Cola.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

It's outrageous. These so-called guest workers will take the menial jobs and pay no tax at all because their income will be so low. In fact, their menial expected wages will qualify almost all of them for payment from the US Treasury under the Earned Income Tax Credit.

Add to that the cost of subsidizing those low wages, healthcare and education for their 5.2 kids and they will be a huge net drain on the American taxpayers! They already cost us billions...can you imagine the tidal wave of millions more to pay for?

We have to put a stop to this. We have to vote this traitor out of office. His contempt for the American worker and taxpayer is overwhelming.

[ETERNAL WARMING]

I can't find anything on the Fox news site.


Don't be surprised. Fox has been mysteriously all but silent on the issue since W's proposal. The pundits are tossing cotton balls at the Pro-crowd. I've accused them of turning into The Bot Network!

[ETERNAL WARMING]

I agree. Bush is turning into the National Gray Davis.

[Cubs Fan]

I thini that the Bush illegals fiasco highlights an ugly antidemocratic trend in politics--the idea that you can get more votes if you tick off the vast majority of people a little bit instead of a small group of people a whole lot.

[PRND21]

Bush is turning into the National Gray Davis.

McClintock/Tancredo 2004

[LibertarianInExile]

I agree. I had never even thought about voting for Dean, but this whole thing has me scared. If we're just going to let anyone in anyway, what's the point of taking out Iraq? If we're just going to let anyone in anyway, what's the point of going after Al Queda? We'd just issue them blue cards if they want to come here.