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AP Survey: Bush Gets Little Credit on Jobs
New York Times ^ | June 11, 2004 | AP

Posted on 06/11/2004 8:25:53 AM PDT by Libertarian444

AP Survey: Bush Gets Little Credit on Jobs By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Filed at 11:02 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. economy has gained about 1.2 million jobs in the last six months, but most voters haven't gotten the word.

They're too focused on the war in Iraq and other news -- and too busy trying to make ends meet -- to notice the upbeat economic development. Few voters seem to be giving President Bush credit for the new jobs or other signs of recovery.

``I don't think he's created anything,'' said Lonnie Steele, 57, an undecided voter from East Flat Rock, N.C. ``I know a number of people who are educated people, and they are working two or three minimum-wage jobs just trying to put groceries on the table and keep their families alive.''

An Associated Press survey of 788 registered voters conducted Monday through Wednesday shows that while they may be gaining confidence in the economy and Bush's performance, 57 percent said the nation has lost jobs in the last six months. The Labor Department has reported just the opposite -- nearly 1.2 million jobs gained in half a year.

``The message hasn't gotten out,'' said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center. ``It takes a while for national changes to get down to the people level.''

The Nov. 2 election may hinge on whether the economy continues to improve and whether voters notice. The race is a dead heat, with Bush at 46 percent, Democrat John Kerry at 45 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 6 percent, according to the AP poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Kerry's advisers say they're not surprised that many voters don't know about the new jobs. ``It's because the quality of jobs that have been created are inferior to the jobs that have been lost,'' said one, Tad Devine.

Retorted Bush spokeswoman Nicolle Devenish: ``That's just not true. Two-thirds of the jobs that have been created are in sectors with higher-paying salaries than the national average.'' She pointed to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showing the average salary for non-supervisory workers at $15.64 an hour.

But the BLS also reports that a bulk of the new jobs -- 978,000 -- come from the private services sector, where the average hourly salary is $15.24. Of the sector's professional and businesses services jobs created in May, nearly half are temporary help, the bureau said.

``The jobs are being created for college students at McDonald's,'' said Barbara Mulkey, a Democratic voter from rural Floyd County, Ky. She said jobs had been lost, then didn't budge on her opinion of Bush when told she was wrong.

Michelle Blundy initially said U.S. jobs had been lost and called herself a ``probable'' Bush voter. Informed about the jobs gain, the Grand Rapids, Mich., woman said she would vote for Bush -- and chalked up her original skepticism to Michigan's poor economy.

``They're going to say all the jobs in Michigan are going here or there, whereas there may be jobs created in Colorado that of course we don't know about because we're not there,'' she said.

But many voters were like Steele, unswayed by the positive jobs figures. Though he had read about the gains in his local paper, the retired contractor still feels bad about the economy and the country, partly because of Iraq.

``There was a time when I would be proud to tell people I'm an American,'' Steele said. ``Right now, in Iraq or anywhere, I'd be scared to tell people I'm an American.''

Even a staunch Bush backer such as James Floyd said he thought jobs were lost in the last six months. ``Jobs are moving overseas,'' said the Conroe, Texas, trucking firm owner.

Bush is not the first president to suffer from a disconnect between job figures and voter perceptions. His father had poor ratings on the economy and lost re-election in 1992, though an economic recovery was under way.

Bush campaign aides said the positive job news has been overshadowed by other events -- from Martha Stewart's legal troubles to the Iraqi prison abuse scandal. Even Ronald Reagan's death.

``There's been a lot of news to compete with the economic news,'' Devenish said.

Less than half of registered voters approve of Bush's job performance, believe the nation is headed in the right direction and back his efforts on domestic affairs, the AP-Ipsos poll showed. Disapproval of his efforts in Iraq increased -- to 55 percent from 51 percent last month.

About 47 percent of the respondents said they approve of the president's performance on the economy, a slight improvement from last month when 43 percent held that view.

Kerry will try to keep voters focused on the most dismal economic data while fueling their anxieties about interest rates, health care premiums, tuition bills and other costs of living.

Bush plans to continue using domestic travel to highlight workers who have taken higher-paying jobs and companies that are hiring. His latest television ad tries to turn the tables on Kerry.

``After recession, 9-11 and war, now our economy has been growing for 10 straight months,'' the ad says. ``John Kerry's response? He's talking about the Great Depression. One thing's sure: Pessimism never created a job.''


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; polls
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To: comebacknewt
We need to hammer this message home over and over until the sheeple get it...

Even as I type Rush is saying that no matter how good the economy goes the press rants on and on about a totally fabricated economic malaise.  It's gone to extremes beyond all measure.  Something I just found out yesterday-- the fact is that taxes (as % gdp) were the highest under Clinton, higher even than were needed during WWII, and with just 3 years of Dubya's tax cuts (they've have gone down to the lowest point in nearly half a century.

And everyone complains about illegal immigrants taking all those jobs that have gone to China.  Amazing.

41 posted on 06/11/2004 11:03:08 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Asclepius
How--dare I say it?--Reaganesque.

Remember how Al Gore tried to morph into Ronald Reagan? Somebody should keep a watch on Kerry's Mabeline expenses...

42 posted on 06/11/2004 11:03:12 AM PDT by Corin Stormhands (Ronald Reagan on DU: "There's got to be a pony in there somewhere...")
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To: Willie Green
Phantom Lord: Also never talked about is the fact that over the last 10 years China has lost more than 16 Million manufacturing jobs. Who did they lose them to? Or did technology and productivity render these jobs not needed?

Willie Green: So you believe that Ronald Reagan should've outsourced our industrial infrastructure to The Evil Empire like Dubya's doing with the Chicoms?

I then asked you to answer my questions and you responded Already did. It's not my fault that the implications of my reply to you sailed into one ear and out the other without making contact with anything.

So, asking a question about the Evil Empire and the Chicoms is an anwer to my questions on Chinese manufacturing job losses, where they went, or what may have caused them to no longer be needed?

43 posted on 06/11/2004 11:03:57 AM PDT by Phantom Lord (Distributor of Pain, Your Loss Becomes My Gain)
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To: Phantom Lord
So, asking a question about the Evil Empire and the Chicoms is an anwer to my questions on Chinese manufacturing job losses, where they went, or what may have caused them to no longer be needed?

Since my query questions the wisdom of upgrading the Chicoms industrial infrastructure, yes, I'd say I answered your question as to whether technology had anything to do with shifts in the Chinese workforce.

Doh!

Are you really so dense that you have to have it spelled out for you?

44 posted on 06/11/2004 11:11:21 AM PDT by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: Libertarian444
Why would some reporter go to East Flat Rock, North Carolina and ask Gomer wassup'?

You KNOW the big industry in East Flat Rock is runnin' 'shine.

45 posted on 06/11/2004 11:11:43 AM PDT by muleskinner
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To: KC_Conspirator; Phantom Lord
This is more bashing w/o any facts.

The media has a filter in place. Every campaign official and every administration official has been on every FNC show from Fox & Friends to Cavuto and in the economic segments during the day for months.

Notice that one voter changed her mind for Bush on being informed of the true jobs numbers and another refused to accept the truth. This is not the fault of the campaign.

AP is the wire service that is used by most US papers, TV stations and radio news bytes. They have spun every positive accomplishment into a negative and done the opposite for Kerry.

As PL said, when challenged, no one can find someone supporting a family of 4 on multiple minimum wage jobs, even when enticed w/a job paying $60k/yr. These are ideological die-hards, not the average electorate.

When Bush put out the 1st ad blitz, many FReepers were whining that he had waited too long and then they whined that he had spent so much for no bounce. These are the same people who whined we didn't nuke Afghanistan immediately and then whined that we didn't need to rebuild the place and we also needed more troops on the ground and should bomb Mecca and Medina, to boot.

The numbers are all trending up. The perceptions based on people's actual economic circumstances are changing and will change further.

I can tell you that I am self-employed and when I received a huge (for me) tax refund based on my December 2003 payments, it was the 1st refund I had received, not counting a couple of small ones the last 2 summers. Going thru my return, I am convinced that my accountant, who hates Bush, purposely figured my taxes too high, hoping I would blame Bush. Instead, I am delighted and the money I get to keep makes a huge difference. In addition, my quarterly estimates for this year have gone down by nearly 50% when my net income rose by 25%.

I cannot possibly be the only one.

Combined w/the fact that we have not had a successful attack on American soil in almost 3 years, I credit the administration and the POTUS w/keeping us secure, as well as prosperous.

GWB has a fantastic record as a politician: the only Republican elected Governor of Texas and the only Texas Governor to get 2 terms. An unknown who won the presidency against great odds and a lot of fraud. A man who rose to the occasion on 9/11/01. I have no reason to believe that the team in charge of this election is anything but extremely competent. This administration has been attacked and smeared hourly for 4 years and still, the Democrats lost the midterms and a Republican won the recall in California. In spite of a concerted front against him, at home and abroad, led by the media in collusion w/the DNC and financed by several progressive billionaires, GWB is beginning to pull ahead, even in polls skewed to keep his numbers low.

Now, please tell me how many election campaigns you have run and successfully won and maybe I will take your criticisms seriously. I work w/the paid staff in my area and they are phenomenally competent, calm and optimistic. So is our local base, even though most of us have to deal w/personal attacks and threats from the embittered leftists who cannot put Kerry forward and so have to denigrate and obstruct President Bush at every turn.
46 posted on 06/11/2004 11:22:04 AM PDT by reformedliberal (Proud Bush-Cheney04 volunteer)
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To: reformedliberal
Notice that one voter changed her mind for Bush on being informed of the true jobs numbers and another refused to accept the truth. This is not the fault of the campaign.

That is his fault. The media certainly is not going to let good ecnomic news come out. BTW, Dubya's first ad blitz did give him a bounce.

For the record, I have worked on numerous campaigns. I have done work for Ashcroft, Sen. Kit Bond and Jim Talent, Rep. Sam Graves, and Sec. of St. MO Matt Blunt. I have also volunteered for Bush and have worked as a driver for his motorcade and event staff. That good enough for you?

47 posted on 06/11/2004 1:09:08 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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To: KC_Conspirator
Good resume, yes. :)

Then you know exactly what this campaign is up against. I also wonder if the AP article in question is really a way for the press to begin to acknowledge the economy while dissing the POTUS on his communication skills. You know they love to see us blaming each other for what they have done.

So, we are on the same side and I will just agree to disagree. I see no way the POTUS himself can strong arm a hostile media front. The facts will have to speak for themselves.

I will add this: I see world leaders, including the Iraqi transitional president, speaking truth to power about the goodness and success and necessity of the USA in Iraq. This seems to me to indicate that they think they are going to have to spend another 4 years working w/Dubya. They have been doing this in contexts impossible for the press to spike, as well.

I just saw Beckel on Cavuto's show. For the 1st time in 25 years, I heard Bob Beckel say something honest about Reagan: that campaigning against him was like taking a rowboat up against the Nimitz. I think as the campaign builds momentum over the next 5 months, Kerry's campaign will have to recognize they are in an analogous (not exact) situation. Their guy sux.I have heard directly from several Dems who tell me they hate Kerry. And they listen as I talk about Bush's positives.

Did you see Dubya in the Q&A w/the press yesterday? He is back, he dealt the press a few smacks and he was on his game again. I saw relief in his performance after a couple of weeks where he looked like something the cat dragged in. I think the internals are just as the various stat heads have been saying on FR: good. You sound like you might have some connections to the campaign. Maybe you can find out what has made the POTUS happier in the past couple of days.(and then come back and tell US!)

I think he is ready to go to the people, again. When he does that, he can connect and he can rally people to his POV. He did well in the eulogy today, IMO. I caught one stumble, where he was thinking too far ahead and tripped over his own tongue, but he caught himself and went on slowly and w/half-way decent enunciation.

By the way, one of the young paid staffers has enthused to me about both Mehlman and Rove. I was impressed that she was so positive about a couple of operatives her father's age. She couldn't say enough about their availability, humor,competency, caring and hard work. She intends to go back to school after the campaign as a poli sci major because of the people she has met in the top tier of the campaign.
48 posted on 06/11/2004 2:00:07 PM PDT by reformedliberal (Proud Bush-Cheney04 volunteer)
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To: Libertarian444
This cuts both ways. It is in fact a reasonable position to not give Bush too much credit for job creation. It is also a reasonable position to not blame him too much for job loss. This poll may simply mean that Americans are rather more economically sophisticated today, and so neither blame nor credit the President for jobs availability.

Except, naturally, for the leftist Dims, who of course are dumber than a box of rocks and believe whatever pap is fed to them by the appropriate liberal media channels.

49 posted on 06/11/2004 4:00:08 PM PDT by dark_lord (DemonRat Political Platform: (1) Death to America (2) Up with Treason)
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To: KC_Conspirator
The Bush adminstration is classifying "manufacturing jobs" as working at a burger joint? Thats dishonest.

That's not what the article said;

"Mixing water and concentrate to produce soft drinks is classified as manufacturing," the president's report reads. "However, if that activity is performed at a snack bar, it is considered a service."

"The report does not recommend that burger-flippers be counted alongside factory workers."

50 posted on 06/11/2004 4:25:25 PM PDT by Jorge
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To: Willie Green
So you believe that Ronald Reagan should've outsourced our industrial infrastructure to The Evil Empire like Dubya's doing with the Chicoms?

Guess the "fact" that Dubya is outsourcing "our industrial infrastructure" to the Chicoms explains this;

"... new factory hiring has jumped to a 31-year high, the best since 1973. Of more than 400 industrial firms surveyed, 36 percent added workers in May, while just 7 percent had fewer workers...."

But by all means keep ignoring all the great economic news we've had for several months now.

And keep posting your links liberal Bush-bashing media sources to push your doom and gloom message on FR.

All the more reason for us to appreciate great leaders like Reagan who always spread optimism and hope. Such a contrast between this and the Dems who prey on negativity and fear. (kinda like your posts)

51 posted on 06/11/2004 4:41:39 PM PDT by Jorge
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To: Jorge

Jorge, I was referring to a link that Willie linked to and was dated in February.


52 posted on 06/11/2004 9:41:18 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator (This space outsourced to India)
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